When Math Wing goes Horribly Wrong

By GamerTnT, in X-Wing Battle Reports

It was time for another local store championship – this one at A Muse N Games in Winnipeg, and once again I was short on time to plan my list.

So, instead of practising, I did some MathWing – inspired by this post. Impressive alpha strike. But what if I went with 5 A-Wings all with Proton Rockets? A 25 dice alpha strike with a focus token. The math was clear, but still I was unsure. So, the morning of the event, I find that I do have five A-Wings ready to fly, but only three Zs. A-Wings it is, and I head off feeling confident. Even though I know swarms are more cognitively demanding at tournaments.

My first match is against Jeremiah – he’s flying a fully loaded Chiraneau (including Vader, a Rebel Captive and a Bomb) + Soontir Fel (with the usual upgrades). Jeremiah tells me that he has been practising this fleet against a lot of other builds and it is doing very well – except some swarms are challenging. I’m feeling cocky (despite the fact this is my first time flying A-Wings and this build).

We set up most of the asteroids at the edges – lots of open space to play – I set up left, he sets up right but angled towards the middle. This creates a poor merge for me. I end up with Soontir at range 1 to two focused A-Wings. He’s not my target, but I can’t pass up the opportunity. The Proton Rockets do their job, but not before I lose an A Wing. Now, I’m up 16 points and out of position. I should have run to regroup. Instead I try to chase down the Decimator. I never get another rocket off.

The only plus – I did manage to keep one of the A-Wings (with a single hit point) right in front of the Decimator for many turns – blocking him and denying actions.

Loss, 100-37. And I’m beginning to wonder how good this build is. And how hard it will be to deliver the alpha strike. Lesson learned – A-Wings are not very offensive – use their speed to create the encounter you want. If that means running, then run.

My next match is against Andy. He’s looking for revenge from our last meeting. He’s flying an interesting build: Tie Academy, Mauler Mithel, Karnar Jax and Kir Karnos. Both Interceptors are the beefy Royal Guard type (extra hull and shield). This build could be a problem for me – I can still fire the rockets if I can add the focus token before Jax gets in range, but it will be tough.

We set up most of the asteroids in the middle and I set up right. He sets up across from me. It’s going to be a joust. Now, the hard decision. Do I slow play? Or rush in? Figuring he will slow play, I move five and boost. I’m committed. It was a bad decision. He moved five as well. Luckily, no damage is done, but turn two will be an issue. I K turn my front rank and move forward with my second rank. One of the front rank lands on an asteroid. Sigh. However, though I get some shots – the lack of the focus means I can’t use the Rockets.

Andy has also set up two ranks, but he has space between his ranks – allow him to create sequential passes – it was actually quite amazing to watch as he decimated my fleet. I’ve always felt concentration of force was more effective, but he clearly showed that even though he had fewer ships firing – the separation allowed him to create havoc in my manoeuvring. So much so that I rarely had the opportunity to fire my entire fleet as well. Something I will have to think about.

Lesson learned, math wing is not your friend. Really. But I can’t blame all my poor showing on the fleet – my opponents recognized my single point of failure and exploited it. Andy did an excellent job keeping my rockets on their rails.

Loss 100-0 (and not a single rocket fired)

Third and final round against Alex. He’s is brand new to X-Wing and is, in-fact, flying a fleet from someone else who had to drop out due to other commitments. It’s Ethan, Wedge and a Hawk. This build has a lot of synergies and will be hard for a newcomer. Given I’m not in the running for much, I spend just as much time giving strategy advice.

However, I do manage a perfect merge. Wedge does not kill an A-Wing so he takes normal shot plus two rockets and dies. Ethan hurts a ship but his E-Wing is out of position over the next few rounds and he takes another rocket. He tried to stay and fight vs barrel rolling away.

That is always the tough decision – do I stay and fight with focus – or barrel roll away to fight later. If you have the lower pilot skill – barrel roll is the better choice. If you have first shot, would you barrel roll? I suggested he roll away – he wanted to fight. He was going to need an amazing roll to kill an A Wing. And he got it (I drew the Direct Hit for the third game in a row). But he did not survive the return fire.

Now it was four A-Wings vs the Hawk. Time was called, but the Hawk was dying soon.

So, what did I learn?

Math Wing is fine for some things, but you need to keep in mind that flying is critical as well. The proton rockets look great on paper, but they have a critical weakness. You need to be at the perfect place. Against a skilled opponent, they will be hard to get off. And I think that is the key issue – there are a lot of skilled opponents out there now.

Sure, they worked well against a beginner. But not against the rest of the field. I might try the Z95 build with cluster missiles, or even fly this one again, but create a two pass flow. But, Scum and Villainy is out soon, and there’ll be more new ships to try!

As much as I like the speed of A-Wings, I always have a hard time with them. That 2 attack is just such a hindrance, and not being able to barrel roll unless you throw Expert Handling on them. I'll take a Squint any day.

Sucks about the Alpha and not being able to get off the prockets. Ordnance is a tricky thing sometimes. What did Chris run to get the win for the day? It sounds like you had some interesting matches and some variety in the builds you went against. . Nice to see Hawks represented..

I didn't get to watch it all go down but from the glimpses I did get and the description, I take it you flew in formation. I keep thinking this list needs to fly either in two or more groups. This would either break up the opponents formation or give you some vectors without shots coming back at them. It's also hard to arc dodge five individuals coming in at high speed. It would also let you if permitted to break off with the heads up force to avoid an unbalanced conflict while engaging with the secondary group or the 'others'.

It's an interesting list and I think well worth a few more tries.

So ... Where's the math?

Five dice with focus gives an expected damage of 4.77 (iirc). Thus five of these firing will take down almost ANY ship.

You can see much more complete analysis with cluster missiles in the link above. It was impressive.

Five dice with focus gives an expected damage of 4.77 (iirc). Thus five of these firing will take down almost ANY ship.

You can see much more complete analysis with cluster missiles in the link above. It was impressive.

That has to be five dice with focus AND target lock, right?

Sorry, typo, that should have been 3.75. Not sure what my fingers were thinking when I typed that.

Yeah; this is a good example of putting too much stock in a basic probability calculation. The assumption that a PS1 A-wing is going to be able to get the R1 Procket shot is a dangerous one to make, especially in today's metagame. For example, there was a TCA match where Kelvan ran 5 prototypes with prockets, and got his butt handed to him by a high-PS arc-dodging list, if I remember right.

thing 2 to learn: good maneuvers don't mean **** against turrets :P

I do love A-wings, but I don't think I would ever take more than 1 more per list. A single Proto-type is far and away superior to a bandit, but each one you take is another 3 points more expensive (36 points for 3 bandits, 45 for 3 protos)

I've used single A-wings and they've made themselves far more felt than any Z-95 thanks to their dial, boost action, and incredibly irritating profile, but they're not really offensive ships so much as annoying gnats that give you a positioning advantage.

My favorites are the humble Refit Prototype and Predator Refit Gemmer, both being incredibly annoying and difficult to remove for their cost (Gemmer obviously being superior at both for his cost, but being far more expensive than the proto)

I tried making As offensive powerhouses, but I don't think they have it in them. The closest I've gotten is V.I, PTL, Procket Jakes. The man is a brutal phantom slayer with enough practice (such as TL a turn prior to shooting down a rebel captive phantom via procket to the face) but he's also really expensive for a one-shot rocket, so I've come to prefer the reliability of innate 3 red-dice pilots.

Your problem is that your expecting the christmas combination to go off all the time: The condictions? Range 1; with focus and target lock. While it is certainly the most effective tactic that way, most players will twig to the exacting condictions to the gimmic early on and will seek to deny your advantage in any way.

This was especially present against the interceptor list where you chose to shoot; but not activate your proton missles. That was probably a huge error on your part as a 5 attack missle will likely do sangificant damage and against frailer, yet very agile fighters such as interceptors you really do need to kill their stuff quickly to reduce the firepower present on their side. Thats the real issue with alpha strikes; even if it's not a favourable engagement, you still need to hit them as hard as possible to make it more likely that your fighters will outlast there's, otherwise the loss of the ship and it's missles is a even greater loss.

Good on trying it though.

Your problem is that your expecting the christmas combination to go off all the time: The condictions? Range 1; with focus and target lock.

Hmm, no. And this is one of the reasons I went with the Proton Rockets vice the Cluster missiles. For the Protons, you only need a focus. You don't even have to spend it. Thus, you don't need to be in range one when you select the focus action. A benefit for low PS ships. And you still have that focus token to spend on the 5 die attack. Hopefully, your opponent obliges you and allows you the shot (or, hopefully you have predicted well and put yourself in a position for the shot).

I never really expected TL and Focus. It would have been nice. But as long as I had the focus and a shot worth taking, I took it. Unfortunately, Jax (in the interceptor game) often prevented me from _taking_ the focus action, thus no shot. I would have taken it if I could.

Edited by TnT

I think the list was pretty cool and could have some serious teeth. But formation flying may have been the downfall of this list. I think this is a list that by necessity needs to fly in on all sorts of angles at different speeds, offer a target and then remove it. Hit from weird angles.

If I ever find myself with that many A-wings I'll fly it for sure.

Ironically, I have been debating trying it again, but using waves vice a single formation