Both of these situations happened in the same tournament game on Saturday, and I was curious about the probabilities of them happening, if someone would care to run the numbers.

Facing a squad of 3 A-Wings (escorting Fat Han), A-Wing #1 exploded in one shot from my Phantom. I had Focus for the attack, but can't remember the exact defense, so what are the odds of:

4 + F vs 4 Agility (range 3)

4 + F vs 3A + F

4 + F vs 3A + Evade

Later in the same game, A-Wing #2 survived what I can only imagine are very long odds. Soontir at range 1 with F + TL, Shuttle at range 1, and Phantom at range 1 with F! (Note that my opponent flew the A-Wings very well despite the circumstances; they formed a perfect screen until #1 for 1-shot, and #2 here tried to block, it just happened to be barely unsuccessful in the worst way.) So, how often does an A-Wing survive with 3A + F or E or nothing against:

4 + F + TL

5 + F

AND 4

Oh, and not only did A-Wing #2 survive, it only lost ONE shield!

Thanks in advance!

Facing a squad of 3 A-Wings (escorting Fat Han), A-Wing #1 exploded in one shot from my Phantom. I had Focus for the attack, but can't remember the exact defense, so what are the odds of:

4 + F vs 4 Agility (range 3)

4 + F vs 3A + F

4 + F vs 3A + Evade

It gets a little complex when you start including crits, and I'm in a hurry, but this is at least close:

4 red + focus vs. 4 green: 4.8% chance to do 4 damage, plus 2.4% chance to deal 3 damage with at least one double-damage crit

4 red + focus vs. 3 green + focus: 1.7% chance to do 4 damage, plus 1.4% chance to do 3 damage with at least one double-damage crit

4 red + focus vs. 3 green + evade: 0% chance to do 4 damage, plus 1.0% chance to do 3 damage with at least one double-damage crit

So the best chance for the kill is if your opponent's A-wing was at Range 3 with no other defensive modifiers, where it's something like 7.2% or about 13:1 odds against.

Later in the same game, A-Wing #2 survived what I can only imagine are very long odds. Soontir at range 1 with F + TL, Shuttle at range 1, and Phantom at range 1 with F! (Note that my opponent flew the A-Wings very well despite the circumstances; they formed a perfect screen until #1 for 1-shot, and #2 here tried to block, it just happened to be barely unsuccessful in the worst way.) So, how often does an A-Wing survive with 3A + F or E or nothing against:

4 + F + TL

5 + F

AND 4

This one is actually really complicated, since you have a choice of when to spend your focus or evade for the greatest effect. If I treat your token as a generalized +1 hp, though, then the median and mode of hits+crits are both 6. You have a 16.9% chance of surviving the attack at all (about 5:1 odds against), and a 0.4% chance of taking no more than 1 damage (about 270:1 against).

For single attacks you can use xwingdice. com. For multiple attacks, it depends on the probability of spending evade and focus tokens.

It actually was 4 straight hits (no crits) on A-Wing #1. Unlikely stuff! Looks like he got the better end of the deal, odds-wise, but either way it was a fun game that I managed to win. (The rolls were so weird all game, besides just those two it seemed like every time I had modifiers for attacks I'd get a whole lot of blanks, and when I didn't natural hits and crits abounded!)

Thanks guys!