Hey guys,

I have a series of probability related problems for the resident mathematicians on this board, because any knowledge I could claim to have in mathematics promptly died when I graduated highschool. Therefore, I could use someone to help me figure something out by solving a multi-part word problem involving X-wing mechanics

So here's the premise:

Not long ago, I "invented" (in quotes because the combination has probably already been obvious to many players, but for me it was a eureka moment) a build of X-wing I call the Stress Wing (super original) which is just a named X-wing pilot with Veteran Instincts, R3-A2, and Engine. It began as a mad fever dream to silence the horribly flawed belief, expressed both online and off, that the Rebels somehow need a turret to kill a phantom and that was why Wave 5 is nothing but phantoms and turrets. After running it in a few casuals and the local store championship, I've fallen in love with it and have come to believe it is a very flexible, reliable, and deadly ship. But I also think its ******* cursed.

My recent memory counts 3 games where I've been smacked around by two ship builds--not because I was outplayed (though I certainly can be), not because a stressed target-lock-less Whisper is a threat, not because a double stressed no-token dash is dangerous, not because the X-wing cannot preform, but because...well I'll let you guess (hint: it's related to a color and not known for being constant). So far, I have had two Dash + Corran builds slip away from horrible situations (as in, my entire squad minus the stress-wing concentrating fire on corran while double stress Dash derps around ineffectually) completely unscathed. And now, just recently, it happened again.

I'm really **** curious if this has just been a set of horribly unlikely events, or if I'm expecting far too much from my ships. And so, I turn the problem over to the actual mathematicians.

The Data:

The game: Stress Luke with two Ion Cannon Blues and a refit Prototype versus our main antagonist, Vessery (stealth, outmaneuver), and his buddy Kenkirk (PTL, weps engineer, EU, Ysanne).

We are going to focus on Vessery. Though I can't remember the actual rolls, I remember vividly the amount of damage he took each round.

It is round 3 and the first volley of range 3 fire is exchanged

-Luke tags Kenirk for stress and hits shields

-Kenkirk and Vessery fire-

-A blue squadron hits Kenirk, who is now shield-less)

1.) The remaining Ion Blues (Range 3, focus) fires ion at Vessery. The Blue is focused and Vessery spent his on his attack (4 green dice from stealth device, no focus). Vessery lets one hit through and is ionized (Stealth device drops).

-the proto-type shoots kenkirk for nothing-

What was the rough probability of stealth device Vessery being ionized?

Round 4

The proto-type races to get into position, both Blues k-turn, and Luke turns into position

1.) Luke (range 2, target-lock) stresses and fire at Vessery (focus), dealing no damage but removing the focus.

2.) Both Blues (no action) fire ions at vessery (no focus). One ion gets through, Vessery is ionized and stressed and has one shield remaining.

Round 5 the motherload

The entire squad except the Proto-type converges on a stressed, ioned Vessery

1.) Luke (range 1, target-lock) stresses Vessery again and fires for no damage

2.) Blue Squadron 1's tight k-turn forces him to bump into Vessery this turn. He fires (range 1, no action) for, again, no damage.

3.) Blue Squadron 2, gobsmacked by this turn of events, fires an ion at Vessery (range 2, target lock) for no damage.

Vessery is free!

Round 6 but wait...there's more

The proto-type flies in front of Vessery to try and block him

Blue squadron 1 moves as far forward as he can and focuses

Blue Squadron 2 banks and rolls to block Kenkirk

Vessery does his 4k despite the double stress because Defenders are sick and sails clear of the A-wing

Luke moves forward and target locks

1.) Luke (range 2, target-lock) thinks stress is redundant and fires at Vessery for one damage. Vessery has no shields.

2.) Blue Squadron 1 fires ion (range 3, no mods due to barrel-roll) for no damage.

3.) Blue Squadron 2 fires normally (range 2, focus) for no damage.

Round 7 we're still going, folks!

The A-wing executes the best maneuver in the game (1 turn, baby!)

Blue Squadron 1 turns hard 2

Blue Squadron 2 k-turns

Kenkirk looms over the squadron, in range 1 of both blues and out of arc

Vessery tries to K-turn again, but runs into Kenkirk

Luke K-turns

1.) Luke (range 2, no action) puts a point of damage on Vessery (I believe it was the "hard turns are red maneuvers" crit )

2.) Blue Squadron 2 fires (range 1, no action-I believe he bumped) and Vessery finally dies.

The Question:

Ultimately, here's what I want to ask:

When the **** should Vessery have died?

I lost the game to a 2-hull Kenkirk with only a proto-type and blue remaining (luke went down a turn after Vessery, rolling two blank greens when a focus or evade would've saved him )

also because FFG apparently doesn't know what partial scoring is

I know the dice inevitably play their role in this whole song and dance, but when we're working with a tactical/strategic game I'd like to know if there's something wrong with my squad's damage output or if I was simply destined from on high to not win that game. Are my expectations in line with reason? Are what I consider horribly skewed rolls actually the norm? I have no idea!

Mathwingers, start your engines and help a poor, clueless fool out