So, most people here probably know Magic: The Gathering, the popular CCG from WotC. Back in 1996, MtG was going strong, and WotC released a second CCG, Netrunner. The idea made sense, if you have a CCG selling well, why not release a second one to double your income?

The problem was that Netrunner didn't create new players, it just took existing players from MtG. Both games being CCGs meant both required a large monetary investment to be successful, and unless you had a lot of disposable income, investing in one meant investing less in the other. A lot of players were also reluctant to part with a game they'd already spent so much time and money on. Netrunner didn't make it to 1997.

Of course, 16 years later, FFG released Android: Netrunner, their take on the game released as an LCG. The LCG format solves the fundamental problem of CCGs: the difficulty of investing in more than one. Spending 45 dollars a month lets me play 3 card games and gives me the potential to be successful at all of them, instead of struggling to keep up with a single one.

I said all that to say this: I've been thinking about Armada, and I worry that this situation is more like Netrunner than Android: Netrunner. FFG already has a really successful miniatures game set in the Star Wars universe. Granted, Armada is very different from X-Wing, with different rules for movement, shooting, defense, and fleet building, but OG Netrunner was markedly different from MtG, too. I also know a lot of X-Wing players who's collective reaction to Armada has been "Meh."

I'm pumped for the game, and I'm really hoping it gets the success I'm sure it deserves, but do you think it will find an audience? Will it cannibalize players from X-Wing?

I think the anwser is yes and no.

Yes it will canibalize a few players, but i think some of the people who move to concentrate soley on armada might be like me, Ive got a pretty well flushed out x-wing rebel and imperial collection. Im probably going to pick up the most wanted pack mostly for what it will offer my ywings and z's, and will probaly pick 1 of each of the rest as for such a small investment i will virtually have a decent starting scum. But that said my interest has started to wain, i have what i want for a great game. depending on what they realease after the raider for epic, i may pick the odd thing for it. But there lies the other thing for me, when i first found xwing (a couple months before its original release, yup ive been here a long time) I was actually looking for somehting exactly like armada, large ship battles. So I would assume there a few playing xwing just like me who have just been waiting. So yes it will canibablize them a bit.

But at the same time no, i think this will apeal to a whole larger segment of untapped market, like you mentioned it is different, xwing, fast paced dog fighting, armada, more indepth mechanics and tactics.

so while yes i think it will bleed a few off xwing, by having the two i think over all ffg will end up with a larger customer base.

My opinion and I might be wrong is that we are seeing a different strategy on FFGs part. Both games are based on star wars and specifically original Trilogy. (I know there are some rumors about new movie stuff)

The thing is though there is limits to the number of ships in the universe and even though they made new one (Raider) there are still limits I don't seem them creating their own ships at a rate to keep new ships coming like they have been.

what I think is far more likely is you will see a slower pace at both of them more so for xwing then Armada as its new and untapped. Allowing them to keep the same production increase profits but also make both game last longer then they would otherwise because you will be tapping out the usable ships slower.

Of course. Armada is nice for when you have a few hours to spend since it'll probably take about 2x the length of an X-Wing game (1.5 hrs vs .75hrs). Plus the games are very different, one involves moving turns ahead of the current turn, the other is immediate responses (with some occasional planning for the future, maybe 1 turn in advance though). Armada will take some X-Wing players, but neither involves random collection to win. You know what you get in every pack you buy, so you know what you need to buy to get what you want, unlike a CCG, so it isn't a continuous huge investment (MTG gets expensive fast and has no real price roof as there are always more cards, whereas X-Wing has a clear 'more than adequate' point, 1 of each xpac).

williamames3 seems to have a fairly good analysis on the matter. X-Wing has been going at break-neck speed, which some of us have been fearing might result in break-game speed. Of course, we're all addicts and we need our 'fix' of new shinies.

I have the suspicion that Armada won't be the success that X-Wing is. However, I do think that X-Wing is a gateway drug for Armada. As good as I think X-Wing is, I think there are reasons to believe (have faith in/hope/pray) that Armada will be even better. If it is, then I think we'll see both games thrive. X-Wing will continue to attract new players, as it has been doing, but those who are both highly discriminating and willing/able to shell out for it will go to Armada. In that event, Armada's success will also depend on how many people are highly discriminating and affluent enough to afford it.

Of course, if Armada proves to be a dud, then X-Wing will remain king, and Armada will be a flop. We'll have some pretty models in the display case, and that'll be that.

Personally, I'm hoping for a way to get the two games (and maybe Imperial Assault?) to synergize for a more complete gaming experience. However, I think that will be up to the different communities to figure out how to do.

Ive brought multiples of all X-wing up till now, i am yet to order Scum.

Im a big EU guy but the ships, thematically just dont interest me. The cards are cool, but i have been supporting two other players since X-Wing launched, my storage solution has no space for scum and one of these friends is really keen on the ships.

So ive brought in fully on Armada, 2 cores and multiples of everything, said friend is going to collect scum and ill be free to use ships and cards as needed.

I believe Armada will surpass x-wing. Personally I never liked the mechanics for x-wing so aside from playing the game a few times with friends I never purchased anything myself. I was always wishing for a capital ship type game for star wars and once I watched the demo game from gencon I knew this was going to be a great game. Its everything I've wished for and the fact that it includes fighter squadrons is awesome. I think the game will have some players play both and many who will play one or the other. X-wing is mostly about luck and min/max lists, its quick and somewhat fun but its like risk, you always feel like your wanting more to the rules and such. Now we finally have the axis and allies for star wars with Armada. The rules are a bit more complex but not crazy like 40k and it allows players to react better to opponents moves. I know this is all just my opinion but I do see a lot of my friends and other gamers who are very excited to see a capital ship based star wars game so I really think its going to do great.

My sense is that there will be three communities:

1) A fairly large one that consists of players that only play X-Wing, because they have no interest in Armada, or can't afford it, or just haven't gotten around to getting it.

2) A substantially smaller group of players that only play Armada.

3) A large group that plays both. This group will be small at first, but will likely end up growing quite fast as Armada and the first few waves come out.

There will of course be a dynamic equilibrium as some players move between communities, but I think we'll see it stabilize around the time Waves 3-4 come out for Armada.

My friend introduced me to xwing. He collects them, and while the game is fun, it just wasn't what I was looking for in a game. Once I heard about Armada (through the same friend) I knew this is the game for me.

I love fleet battles and Armada looks like a good replacement for Axis and Allies War At Sea (WoTC game that ended a while ago).

So while yes it may steal some from xwing, I think it will work out.

I for one will play both.

Im totally playing both. I think lots of players already have sizeable collections. Unlike MTG, there isnt 250 new things that come out every other month. It will be a little bit easier to keep up. I dont have a giant collection, but I dont see myself buying any more rebels or imps, just the scum ships and anything thing else that comes out in time. And I dont need to get all the scum in one go either.

But armada, this is the game that I have wanted ever since xwing came out. No "meh" about it. If anything thats what I feel about x wing...

As far as miniature games go, X-wing is fairly inexpensive to play. Thus I think FFG feels as if X-wing players who are use to 40k or Warmachine won't view two games as overly burdensome.

I think this is an interesting conversation. I look at this mostly in terms of my personal investments into the games. I am very interested in X-wing, Armada and Imperial Assault... but it has been more of an assault on my bank account lately.

So in the interest in fostering some new faces in my game collection, X-wing was where I made my sacrifice. I have a fairly significant pool from which to build a wide variety of Rebel and Imperial squadrons already, and I'm not much into the tournament scene so I have no fear of falling behind.

I still want to see Scum and Villainy on the table eventually. When I was considering what I wanted to pre-order, I ended up with one Most Wanted, one Aggressor and two Star Vipers. But it worked out to having pre-orders for the Armada expansions, IA packs and Scum at the same time. I had to cut something, and the little Scum order jumped out as the easiest to omit.

I think that rather than truly cannibalizing their own player base, FFG is more likely to see the personal prioritizing of their products that I decided upon. Right now, I am most willing to invest in Armada. X-wing is on the back burner, but I expect that to reshuffle by the summer when I want to get a Raider corvette on the table hunting a pirate squadron.

When the shipping delays clear up, I wonder how the release schedules for the "big three" will line up. That will definitely play a big role in how I prioritize what I buy and when going forward. So I guess maybe I'm illustrating your point? In the past, X-wing did not have any real competition for my money in terms of frequent game expansions... with IA and Armada that is very much no longer the case.

I have a huge collection of X-Wing but I have held off on scum and villany because I predict that Armada will prove a far superior game that will tie up most of my gaming time. If other players like me have only limited funds and time withwhich to play and Armada is a deeper game then we could definitely see a shift of players away from X-Wing. Like someone else also said, before Scum was announced it felt like FFG was starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel with ship choices from the original factions.

I do think that the tournament heavy crowd will stick with X-Wing for a while yet, but I do wonder given the mechanics that can already be seen as becoming unbalanced in some ways, how much longer those hardcore tournament players will be happy with that.

Games with much more sizeable imbalances then X-wing have very large competitive contigents.

My sense is that there will be three communities:

1) A fairly large one that consists of players that only play X-Wing, because they have no interest in Armada, or can't afford it, or just haven't gotten around to getting it.

2) A substantially smaller group of players that only play Armada.

3) A large group that plays both. This group will be small at first, but will likely end up growing quite fast as Armada and the first few waves come out.

Agreed. However, I think group 3 needs to be split into two: people that continue to play X-WIng and buy new releases, and people who continue to play but won't be investing any more. So to answer the OP's question, I think Armada will affect X-Wing; it will not significantly affect the player base, but will have a small impact on sales.

I will be in the latter, but Armada is probably going to be the one I play the most. My X-Wing collection is fairly big so I probably won't be buying anything else for it in favour of buying Armada stuff (if I had more money then I would continue buying, but at the moment I can only afford to fund one game).

Also remember that there is a very large contingent of miniatures gamers that collect/paint/collect/play more than just a single game line. I don't know any mini gamers that only collect or play a single game.

Most mini players I know have cash burning holes in their pockets every month, desperately looking for something new to buy/collect/paint. If X-Wing waves come out roughly twice a year, that's 6 months in between waves that the player is sitting around not buying FFG minis. So that's potential revenue for FFG that is lost, because those players will be throwing their cash at other games or systems in between release waves. However, by adding a new game line, some of those players that would otherwise be spending on non-FFG products in between X-Wing waves will in fact redirect that revenue to the Armada line.

Also keep in mind that (very generally) people purchase less add-ons over time. That means more sets of X-Wing Wave 1 will be sold in total than of X-Wing Wave 5 (or whatever). That's a declining revenue stream, which is not something that companies like to see. They can get surges of interest of course, by releasing special edition ships with new super shiny stuff, by catering to fan service for selection of new ships, and by releasing more powerful minis that dominate earlier releases. But overall, it becomes harder to sustain as much interest in later waves as it was to do in earlier waves. Releasing a new game can help significantly pump up a declining revenue stream.

Finally, remember that players that purchase X-Wing and Armada will not behave like CCG players like the OP mentioned in regards to MtG. The CCG players have to continually upgrade and purchase large amounts of new cards that keep their decks up to date. The normal way CCGs cycle out old cards and release new ones force players to rebuy all their decks all the time is due to set rotation. For X-Wing or Armada, once you have your core fleet/squadron, you never have to redo it since it will never be removed from competition. You might want to add or change out new ships, but you're never forced to. CCGs regularly force you to, and they eat all your available cash if you want to stay competitive. If Armada and X-Wing maintain 2 wave releases per year, that's still 3 months of nothing in between each other's releases. That's plenty of time for players to set aside cash for both games if they want to.

No reason not to play both if both interest you. The cost will not be an issue providing new releases are split between both rather than large release for both games. Example, instead of releasing 4 X-wing ships every other month, they release 2 x-wing and 2 Armada. New releases for both games will keep the interest flowing for both.

These are two different games, with Armada being far more complex than X-Wing. It'll have it's place and I will be playing both simply because it's two different scales of war, dogfights and fleet engagements. They are different enough in my opinion.

Example, instead of releasing 4 X-wing ships every other month, they release 2 x-wing and 2 Armada.

I doubt they'll split things up like that. They don't hold back GoT LCG releases because they have Netrunner LCG stuff coming out too.

If you look at everything released and to be released this year for sure, between now and Sept 2015, there are 27 expansions. The game was released in Sept 2012, that means over the 3 years it will have been around, they avg 9 ships a year.

Me diving headlong into Armada will really depend on how the local scene embraces it. If not a lot of people are playing it, I might not make a huge investment.

Me diving headlong into Armada will really depend on how the local scene embraces it. If not a lot of people are playing it, I might not make a huge investment.

Very understandable. Of course, that also creates a collective action problem. If everyone is taking the wait-and-see approach, then it will prove to be less popular than it otherwise would have.

In my community I'm taking the plunge, and letting the wait-and-see people try it out on my set.

Me diving headlong into Armada will really depend on how the local scene embraces it. If not a lot of people are playing it, I might not make a huge investment.

Very understandable. Of course, that also creates a collective action problem. If everyone is taking the wait-and-see approach, then it will prove to be less popular than it otherwise would have.

In my community I'm taking the plunge, and letting the wait-and-see people try it out on my set.

Me and a buddy already went in (I got 1x everything, he got Core) so at the very least the two of us will play and maybe attract others to join the armada.

Me diving headlong into Armada will really depend on how the local scene embraces it. If not a lot of people are playing it, I might not make a huge investment.

Very understandable. Of course, that also creates a collective action problem. If everyone is taking the wait-and-see approach, then it will prove to be less popular than it otherwise would have.

In my community I'm taking the plunge, and letting the wait-and-see people try it out on my set.

Ditto here. I think between Wave 6 of X-Wing and some real life issues, some of the other folks in my group are finding Armada outside their budgets.

I certainly think there will be some overlap and conflict, particularly as the initial appeal of both is STAR WARS. Once a buyer sees the products and a demo or two, they will probably settle on one of the two (or three, including Imperial Assault) rather than buying into both.

Ditto here. I think between Wave 6 of X-Wing and some real life issues, some of the other folks in my group are finding Armada outside their budgets.

Personally, Wave 6 is providing more funding for Armada. I'll probably grab a Most Wanted set and a StarViper, but only if I feel I need the physical card for Autothrusters. Different strokes for different folks, but the new ships aren't really appealing to me, or at least, aren't as appealing as Armada.