Alpha Strikes. They work on the following gamble:
On the first or second round of actual combat, you improve your ability to attack with ordnance, with the theory that you should be able to destroy more points of your opposing fleet with that onslaught than you spent on the fired rockets.
In subsequent rounds of combat, you should therefore have the advantage.
The reason I bring this up:
- We're currently dealing with a metagame of very few ships in a fleet, meaning that a well-executed Alpha Strike will cripple an opposing fleet by 30-40 points.
- The Z-95 Headhunter means that we can theoretically Alpha Strike with 5-7 missile carriers.
- Swarms are a decent counter to the fleets they vastly outnumber, so 5-7 Z-95s should have a great clean-up after the Alpha.
So: If we've determined that the idea is sound, let us actually decide which ordnance to use, before discussing its downsides.
- 3 points: Ion Pulse Missiles, Proton Rockets
- IPM deal one damage each, and the Ion tokens do not meaningfully stack.
- Prockets attack for 4 on a Z-95, and are best used after combat turns 2-3. They are the most easily fired of the missiles if you can close the gap, though.
- 4 points: Cluster Missiles, Concussion Missiles
- Cluster Missiles are amazing against ships with low agility, like the Falcon and Decimator. Against the Outrider, E-Wing, and Phantom, they're not nearly as useful. Still, being a Range 1-2 shot, you suffer less from a low Pilot-Skill fleet.
- Concussion Missiles are the other side of high-damage ordnance against a single target. In this case, they carry an expected damage output of 2.68..., but with a 59% chance of rolling 3 damage or higher.
- 5 points: Assault Missiles, Homing Missiles
- Assault missiles have the highest theoretical damage output in the game, and they're astonishingly good en-masse against a swarm, or in Epic. Not so much when the splash is so easily avoided as a 2 ship meta.
- Homing missiles have an expected damage of 3, as you can spend your target lock to re-roll any misses, and play better against ships who Evade for added survivability.
So. The reason I posted them thusly is so we can meaningfully differentiate between them.
Notably, a 3-4 point missile can be on 6 headhunters, whereas a 5 point missile can only be on 5.
Therefore, the highest damage options we have are the Cluster Missile (expected damage = 1.5 over two attacks, so similar to 3 vs 2x Agility), and the Concussion Missile (expected damage = 2.65 and a bit), over 6 ships' attacks. (18 vs 2x agility, and 16.1 and a bit).
Can they carve their worth (24 points of Missile) out of the hull of their opponents? My guess is that it's very likely, and definitely worth checking out.