Unless you are Corran or have Gunner, this is better than Markmanship since this + Focus action gives the same results (if you have only 1 attack) for 2 less points.

No, it doesn't. Read the card - it changes one eyeball to a crit. If you roll two eyeballs on that one attack, it's only going to change one of them. So if you roll zero eyeballs, it's going to do nothing. If you roll 2 or more eyeballs, you'll be giving up damage to get that crit. I laid out the odds above - the best it gets is just under 20% of the time for a 2-dice attack.

Oh dear, it seems you've fallen into the number of arrangements trap! What you've calculated is the probability of rolling exactly one focus on one specific die of your two dice.

Flip a coin twice. What's the chance of getting a head and a tail in either order? 50%, because head tail and tail head both count. How many possible results are there for flipping a coin twice? Four, not three. HH, HT, TH, TT.

You've got a 0.25 probability of a focus, and a 0.75 probability of not getting a focus per die. To simply the mathematics we'll treat every side that's not a focus as a Not Focus result (as it doesn't matter what the other result is for the purposes of this).

Possible arrangements for a 2 dice attack?

NN, NF, FN, FF

The probability of two events both occuring is their probabilites put together. Therefore:

NN: 0.75 * 0.75 = 0.5625

NF: 0.25 * 0.75 = 0.1875

FN: 0.75 * 0.25 = 0.1875

NN: 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625

To get the probability of a focus you need to add every result that gives a focus up. That means the actual probability of a focus is 0.375, just under 40%. Much more respectable.

For three dice there are three arrangements with a single focus, NNF, NFN and FNN. 3(0.75 * 0.75 * 0.25). This gives a 0.42 probability! The chance of the individual arrangements has gone down but there are now three ways to get a single focus instead of two.

Remember this is still exactly one focus. At least one focus is about 0.58.

Now let's take it up to the HLC.

NNNF, NNFN, NFNN, FNNN. 4(0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.25) = 0.42 again.

This is about the maximum. As you get to higher and higher dice and the chances of multiple foci get higher the chance of a single focus goes down. At 5 dice, you're looking at about 0.40, and it's slowly downhill after that. Such an appearance is typical of competing forces: the chance of no focus results goes down as you add more dice but the chance of multiple foci goes up.

You can always check if you've got this right by adding up all your probabilities for all possible arrangements: if you've done it right they'll always come to 1. After all, you've got a 100% chance of getting any result.

Short version, at the number of dice that usually come up your chances of one focus are actually pretty good.

Hello,

Calculation card and last M3-A pilot had been added to Fab's squadron generator.

http://fabpsb.free.fr

bye

Oh dear, it seems you've fallen into the number of arrangements trap! What you've calculated is the probability of rolling exactly one focus on one specific die of your two dice.

Flip a coin twice. What's the chance of getting a head and a tail in either order? 50%, because head tail and tail head both count. How many possible results are there for flipping a coin twice? Four, not three. HH, HT, TH, TT.

Oh, dear. It seems you've calculated Calculation so much my head imploded.

I'm glad there are other people out there to calculate all that for me and I don't have to, but sometimes it just makes my head hurt.

Unless you are Corran or have Gunner, this is better than Markmanship since this + Focus action gives the same results (if you have only 1 attack) for 2 less points.

No, it doesn't. Read the card - it changes one eyeball to a crit. If you roll two eyeballs on that one attack, it's only going to change one of them. So if you roll zero eyeballs, it's going to do nothing. If you roll 2 or more eyeballs, you'll be giving up damage to get that crit. I laid out the odds above - the best it gets is just under 20% of the time for a 2-dice attack.

If you get zero eyeballs on your attack, Calculation is the better choice because you still have a focus token available. Marksmanship is a wasted action if you can't use it on your attack.

I like looking at it as some variation on Marksmanship. Both cost an action and eat the EPT and then there are the differences:

Marksmanship: Works for multiple attacks if available. Also changes all other [eye] results into [boom] results.

Calculation: Requires Focus token to change on [eye] to [kaboom] instead of changing all [eye] results into [boom] results.

Now how many places have you seen Marksmanship used? Han w/ Gunner as that may be three rolls. Corran who can make two attacks. After that you have the pilots that make use of Crit mechanics but for most of them Marksmanship is just too expensive to seriously consider. Almost universally you've seen people say forget Marksmanship and just use Focus as the results are nearly as good and it has potential on Defense. That Calculation just give you a small window where it can be a good way to spend points; I'm not sure it wouldn't be almost as useful at 2 points but then its value is really diminished.

Where Calculation will fail:

Your opponent has shields.

You roll multiple [eye] results.

You make multiple attacks.

Where Calculation will fail:

Your opponent has shields.

You roll multiple [eye] results.

You make multiple attacks.

I disagree with this. I think it might matter on what you mean by "fail".

1) It doesn't matter if you have Calc here, but I wouldn't call it a fail. It is just a single point.

2) It doesn't fail as you can just use your Focus to make them all hits instead of turning one into a crit. The beauty of this is that you get to choose after you roll, unlike Marksman.

3) Well, against Marksman, yes. Still, how often does that happen? If it does happen often, will you actually take Marksman instead?

Yes calculation fails when you roll multiple eyes but in that case just spend the focus normally. You don't have to use calculation every time you fire.

If that's correct, looking forward to Ten Numb + Calculating Calculation + Ion

Ion can't make a crit.

I wonder if you can spend one focus token to turn one eye to crit, and second token to make all other eyes to hits?

There's this thing called Marksmanship...i

Where Calculation will fail:

Your opponent has shields.

You roll multiple [eye] results.

You make multiple attacks.

I disagree with this. I think it might matter on what you mean by "fail".

1) It doesn't matter if you have Calc here, but I wouldn't call it a fail. It is just a single point.

2) It doesn't fail as you can just use your Focus to make them all hits instead of turning one into a crit. The beauty of this is that you get to choose after you roll, unlike Marksman.

3) Well, against Marksman, yes. Still, how often does that happen? If it does happen often, will you actually take Marksman instead?

Here I'm defining "fail" as a time when having Calculation would do you little to no good.

If you spend points on something and don't get to use it then it is a fail even if just a minor one. Marksmanship also fails against point #1 and maybe even harder as you'd have to spend the action for its use; unless a [kaboom] could get through Shields Marksmanship would be a terrible action to use. In situation #2 Calculation "fails" because you either use it to get a [kaboom] but likely fail to convert [boom] results or you don't use it; if you were using Marksmanship you cover this situation entirely. Calculation fails with multiple attacks (which aren't all that common anyway) because it is a one and done and if used it also eats the Focus should more [eye] results show up.

If you spend points on something and don't get to use it then it is a fail even if just a minor one.

By that logic, then a whole lot of upgrades and pilot cards can fail. I'm not sure if that's really a meaningful way to look at it.

Last game, at one point I had a Moldy Crow with a stack of 10 focus tokens on it. Under those circumstances, calculation would become a kind of marksmanship that costs less and requires no action.

Most if not all cards have their place somewhere.

Last game, at one point I had a Moldy Crow with a stack of 10 focus tokens on it. Under those circumstances, calculation would become a kind of marksmanship that costs less and requires no action.

Most if not all cards have their place somewhere.

You still could only change 1 eye into a kaboom and the rest of the eyes into booms, at the cost of 2 focus tokens.

It seems to me there are only two types of ships that could really use this: cheap ships that don't need great ept's, and ships with 2 attack dice who aren't likely to get multiple focus on an attack roll.

The best candidates seem to be black ties and green awings.

If you spend points on something and don't get to use it then it is a fail even if just a minor one.

So, a bit off topic - but is Sensor Jammer a fail because you never prevent damage, even if it prevented your opponent from using his action to boost into R1 and chose focus instead? Is HU or SU a fail because you had two hull left when you got killed? What about SD because it was stripped on the first attack even if it changed target priority? Or prockets if it forced your opponent to BR out of range 1 instead of having a R1TL+F shot on you?

There are lots of opportunities for upgrades to have an influence even if they never "trigger." APL is another great example.

I'm not saying they can all directly relate to never activating Calculation, but it seems to me it might affect when/how someone uses C3PO or evade tokens... Perhaps they really don't want you critting their Han, so when Corran shoots at PS10, they let the damage through planning to block when Luke shoots at PS8 with Calculation... but instead Luke shoots at a Z-95 rolling <boom> <boom> <blank>... Now Han has taken 2 extra damage trying to avoid a crit... was Calculation wasted there because Luke didn't get an <Eye> result?

Another thing to consider... If were to accept that idea of a upgrade failing, because it didn't have any direct impact.

How many times do you need to use a given upgrade to make it worth the points? Once per point? Twice? More than once per point and how does the HLC ever earn it's points back?

Calculation is to Marksmanship what Opportunist is to Expose.

Calculation like Opportunist has a higher benefit to lower PS Pilots whereas their counterparts better benefit the higher PS Pilots and Multiple Attacks.

Another similarity it has with current EPTs is with Deadeye + Proton Torpedo the tradeoffs are Range Bonuses and Attack Value.

For lower PS Pilots with EPTs this will probably be the go-to skill to take at 1pt.

I'd just like to note that Wes, Carnor and Palob screw up Calculation. They can't screw up Marksmanship.

Has anyone pondered in this thread whether Maarek would want to take Calculation? Maybe in concert with Advanced Targeting Computer?

I'd just like to note that Wes and Palob screw up Calculation. They can't screw up Marksmanship.

Has anyone pondered in this thread whether Maarek would want to take Calculation? Maybe in concert with Advanced Targeting Computer?

The Empire has Jax too.

I'd just like to note that Wes and Palob screw up Calculation. They can't screw up Marksmanship.

Has anyone pondered in this thread whether Maarek would want to take Calculation? Maybe in concert with Advanced Targeting Computer?

The Empire has Jax too.

Right, thanks. Knew I was forgetting someone. Edited my post.

I'd just like to note that Wes, Carnor and Palob screw up Calculation. They can't screw up Marksmanship.

Has anyone pondered in this thread whether Maarek would want to take Calculation? Maybe in concert with Advanced Targeting Computer?

Its been brought up a couple times, but it just really seems like he would rather have predator or lone wolf instead. I just can't see not spending the extra couple points for one of those. Not saying that I won't try it out though. Maarek's is one of those abilities that I really want to use so I would love to be proved wrong.

I'd just like to note that Wes, Carnor and Palob screw up Calculation. They can't screw up Marksmanship.

Has anyone pondered in this thread whether Maarek would want to take Calculation? Maybe in concert with Advanced Targeting Computer?

Its been brought up a couple times, but it just really seems like he would rather have predator or lone wolf instead. I just can't see not spending the extra couple points for one of those. Not saying that I won't try it out though. Maarek's is one of those abilities that I really want to use so I would love to be proved wrong.

Depends on what else you want to fit into the list with him, I suppose. As an example, those two points saved could let you run Autothrusters on Soontir.

I can't help but ask: Can you spend 2 focus tokens to turn 2 eyes to crits? If so, what ships can have multiple tokens on them? Would it be benefitial to even use this set up?

Whisper/Echo with *gasp* the other modification?

I can't help but ask: Can you spend 2 focus tokens to turn 2 eyes to crits? If so, what ships can have multiple tokens on them? Would it be benefitial to even use this set up?

Whisper/Echo with *gasp* the other modification?

Last game, at one point I had a Moldy Crow with a stack of 10 focus tokens on it. Under those circumstances, calculation would become a kind of marksmanship that costs less and requires no action.

Most if not all cards have their place somewhere.

You still could only change 1 eye into a kaboom and the rest of the eyes into booms, at the cost of 2 focus tokens.

I can't help but ask: Can you spend 2 focus tokens to turn 2 eyes to crits? If so, what ships can have multiple tokens on them? Would it be benefitial to even use this set up?

Whisper/Echo with *gasp* the other modification?

Last game, at one point I had a Moldy Crow with a stack of 10 focus tokens on it. Under those circumstances, calculation would become a kind of marksmanship that costs less and requires no action.

Most if not all cards have their place somewhere.

You still could only change 1 eye into a kaboom and the rest of the eyes into booms, at the cost of 2 focus tokens.

No, I was asking if you could use the EFFECT twice. So if you have 2 eyes and 2 tokens, if you could change BOTH to crits.

Which is what my quote answered

You still could only change 1 eye into a kaboom and the rest of the eyes into booms, at the cost of 2 focus tokens.