As my title suggests, {[KABLAM]} (or Crit) results are usually considered better than {[boom]} (or Hit) results by us fanciful normies.

However, there are times in which the results function identically (against Shields, against the last Hull, &c.), times in which the reverse is true (against Determination, against Draw Their Fire, with an Autoblaster, &c.), and varying degrees of usefulness of the face-up damage card.

So, for the purposes of properly weighting everything from upgrades/pilots to basic actions, how much better, truly, is a {[KABLAM]}?

Assuming the target has no shields, then I'll calculate the exact probability of the double damage crits, weight those by 2x when they proc, and then weight all the other crits as +1/3. The +1/3 for other crits is just my personal rule of thumb and entirely situational based on the lists and the pilot, there is no one-size-fits-all answer.

There's no one-size-fits-all answer because, for instance, there's no mathematical value for the Damaged Engines crit. It's clearly worth something to make Fat Han's 1-turn red, but it doesn't translate neatly into the black-and-white world of hit points and damage done.

The damage deck has 33 cards.

7 of those cards do extra damage and another 2 has a 3 out 8 chance of doing an extra damage from rolling a critical hit alone and adding no other effects (such as red or overlaps).

So as you see the extra damage is way less than 25% on just a critical hit alone with out other influences.

Now there are some cards out there that can do extra damage but requires a trigger or dice roll (or both). Trying to calculate those is like trying to calculate the odds of hitting an asteroid based on placement.

Assuming interest in just the basic extra damage, here's the following table. Numbers are calculated with Direct Hits and Minor Explosions, assuming that once you draw a card it's no longer in the deck. Only up to 8 because it gets boring afterwards and takes a while to compute.

I strongly believe that you can't quantify the other crits, as some are duds and some are just game-winning in certain conditions. (PS0 on Han, Stunned pilot on a large ship, Munitions Failure on Dash, etc. )

edit: editing now, apparently copy-paste on the table didn't work like in the preview.

edit2: Wow, copy-paste seemed to work in draft mode, paste from Word also worked, but after that it was "de-formatting the table" and leaving just the text. Had to put in a screenshot.

I love MathWing threads. It's nifty to see all these stats, without having to do them myself

I strongly believe that you can't quantify the other crits, as some are duds and some are just game-winning in certain conditions. (PS0 on Han, Stunned pilot on a large ship, Munitions Failure on Dash, etc. )

However, Munitions Failure makes a HWK useless for dealing damage.

I strongly believe that you can't quantify the other crits, as some are duds and some are just game-winning in certain conditions. (PS0 on Han, Stunned pilot on a large ship, Munitions Failure on Dash, etc. )

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Munitions Failure cause you to discard a secondary weapon? Assuming you meant "Outrider," not "Dash," then you'd simply revert to the primary weapon: the Outrider title card says "While you have a [{Cannon}] Upgrade card equipped...."

However, Munitions Failure makes a HWK useless for dealing damage.

Sure, but the transition from 4 dice on a secondary to 2 on a primary is game-changing enough in my book.

I'm not a mathmagician, so I have no idea

I just always got by on a Dirty Harry attitude

"Uh uh. I know what you're thinking. "Will I draw direct hit or only munitions failure?" Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track of how many you've already drawn. But being this is a critical hit on a shield-less ship, the most painful experience that can blow your ship clean off the table, you've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?"

Of course, you also need to calculate vs the probability you're hitting a shield vs hull, so it gets even more convoluted

Assuming the target has no shields, then I'll calculate the exact probability of the double damage crits, weight those by 2x when they proc, and then weight all the other crits as +1/3. The +1/3 for other crits is just my personal rule of thumb and entirely situational based on the lists and the pilot, there is no one-size-fits-all answer.

That sounds about right. I'd probably say one face-up damage card in three really leaves me going "oh, bugger!" whilst the rest are only an inconvenience at worst.

I strongly believe that you can't quantify the other crits, as some are duds and some are just game-winning in certain conditions. (PS0 on Han, Stunned pilot on a large ship, Munitions Failure on Dash, etc. )

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Munitions Failure cause you to discard a secondary weapon? Assuming you meant "Outrider," not "Dash," then you'd simply revert to the primary weapon: the Outrider title card says "While you have a [{Cannon}] Upgrade card equipped...."

However, Munitions Failure makes a HWK useless for dealing damage.

Nobody's scared of a fifty something point two dice Dash on four or less health.

So, for the purposes of properly weighting everything from upgrades/pilots to basic actions, how much better, truly, is a {[KABLAM]}?

No offense at all, Dracon, but that's like asking 'how long is a piece of string?'

Without any specific context regarding which ships are being fired upon, and the upgrades they have, it's all pie-in-the-sky speculation.

Most of the time, the answer to your question is that critical hits are better than hits - there's no need for maths to understand this.

There are a few exceptions, of course, but it's very context specific.