If Chiraneau has a TL is it better to flip a focus to a crit right away or after you re roll with TL?

Or is this a stupid question and you take the given crit automatically?

Of course difference dice roll outcomes may affect when to use the ability.

If I'm eligible for his ability, I tend to treat it as a focus, which (by force of habit) I use after re-rolling with target lock. Obviously, if I'm eligible for the ability, I won't re-roll the first focus I have, leaving it for the ability to use it, so it becomes a moot point, but it's still the order I prefer to do things in

This is not a stupid question actually. It depends how many dice you are going to reroll. I did the numbers but forget offhand.

This is not a stupid question actually. It depends how many dice you are going to reroll. I did the numbers but forget offhand.

Yes I do have a brain and can use it some times!!!

It depends how many dice you are going to reroll.

It doesn't really. Admiral Cheerio's ability only lets you flip a single die from focus to kaboom so, if you are going to be using the TL to reroll the other misses anyway, it doesn't really matter whether you wait to use his ability. You roll your 3-5 dice, keep all the booms and kabooms and a single eye and then reroll the rest. Doesn't really matter whether you use the ability immediately or after the reroll, you aren't going to be rerolling that one die anyway.

No this what I mean, say I roll 4 dice 1 eye 3 blanks. Should I re roll all the dice or flip the eye ball now and re roll 3 dice.

(disregard)

It depends how many dice you are going to reroll.

It doesn't really. Admiral Cheerio's ability only lets you flip a single die from focus to kaboom so, if you are going to be using the TL to reroll the other misses anyway, it doesn't really matter whether you wait to use his ability. You roll your 3-5 dice, keep all the booms and kabooms and a single eye and then reroll the rest. Doesn't really matter whether you use the ability immediately or after the reroll, you aren't going to be rerolling that one die anyway.

The real question is actually if it's better to reroll the focus or not.

For example, if rolled 1 focus, and 3 focus/blanks... do you reroll all 4 dice, or do you reroll the 3 of them? In this specific example, rerolling the three would grant you an average of 2.5 <booms>, whereas rerolling all 4 grants you an average of 2.68 <boom>. In this case, it's better to reroll all 4 dice.

However, if you have 1 focus, and 2 focus/blanks, rerolling the two blanks = 2 <boom>... Rerolling all three grants you 2.08 <boom>. Here the odds are in your favor for rerolling all three, but with the results being within 5% of each other, it'd be game specific on what do you need (guaranteed <kaboom> vs. gambling on a higher overall <boom> result).

And finally, if you have 1 focus and 1 blank, rerolling the blank grants you 1.5 <boom>... Rerolling both grants you 1.44 <boom>. You're better off just rerolling the blank...

This is not a stupid question actually. It depends how many dice you are going to reroll. I did the numbers but forget offhand.

I just ran the numbers, and the decision does indeed depend on how many dice don't initially show hits or crits. If it's 1 or 2, wait to use Chiraneau until after the reroll; if it's 3, 4, or 5, then use Chiraneau (assuming there's a focus result, of course) and reroll the remaining dice.

(The break point is actually log(0.5)/log(1 - 0.25), which is 2.4.)

I have to run, but I'll update this later with the logic I used. Chilligan beat me to it. If you see F focus results and B blank results on your initial roll (F is at least 1), then using Chiraneau's ability and then rerolling results in an additional 1+0.5(F+B-1) hits and crits. If you reroll and then use Chiraneau's ability, you get 0.5(F+B) extra hits and crits, plus one more crit if you roll a focus.

So we're looking to see if 0.5(F+B)+[1-0.75^(F+B)] > 1+0.5(F+B-1). That's a true statement as long as F+B is less than log(0.5)/log(0.75), or 2.4.

I got a sign backward somewhere, and the first paragraph here is WRONG. Updated downthread.

No this what I mean, say I roll 4 dice 1 eye 3 blanks. Should I re roll all the dice or flip the eye ball now and re roll 3 dice.

This is just head math, but at 4 dice I think you don't lose any damage flipping the focus. However at 5 I believe your better off rerolling them all, just what my head is telling me anyway

As Vorpal Sword calculated, it's the case of

1 + n/2 > (n+1)/2 + P(at least one focus after rerolls) * 1

which comes to 1/2 < (3/4)^n, from where n> 2.4

Forget the statistics for a second and apply common sense. What is the best result that die can get... A crit. If he reads 1 focus result as a crit, why would you ever reroll that die. If you re roll that die, it may be a crit, it may be a hit, it may be focus, it may be blank. Are any of those results better than the crit you already have? If no, why are you rerolling it? You have the best result, it can go down but not up if u reroll it. Rerolling it is blatantly wrong. It's like flipping a coin. You want heads, you have landed on tails several times this set, and you land on heads. Would you reflip the coin because statistically it should land on heads to make up for all the tails? No, you don't flip it because you win if you dont, and if you do you have a 50/50. I will take a 100% over 50% thank you.

Forget the statistics for a second and apply common sense. What is the best result that die can get... A crit. If he reads 1 focus result as a crit, why would you ever reroll that die. If you re roll that die, it may be a crit, it may be a hit, it may be focus, it may be blank. Are any of those results better than the crit you already have? If no, why are you rerolling it? You have the best result, it can go down but not up if u reroll it. Rerolling it is blatantly wrong. It's like flipping a coin. You want heads, you have landed on tails several times this set, and you land on heads. Would you reflip the coin because statistically it should land on heads to make up for all the tails? No, you don't flip it because you win if you dont, and if you do you have a 50/50. I will take a 100% over 50% thank you.

The logic for rerolling it is that the aggregate result of the reroll is better since another die will be turned from a focus to a <kaboom>. There's a 75% chance that the die you rerolled is better or the same (assuming a <boom> is considered better because another die has access to Chiraneau's ability). Which means 25% of the time you're getting screwed on that specific die. But if you roll a focus with the rest of the dice, then there's no harm done. If you're rolling 100 dice, you pretty much KNOW that you're going to roll at least 1 focus... so you may as well roll 101 dice, and potentially turn that focus into a hit, because another die will be using his ability anyways.

Good answers from the Mathwing department so far. This is the info I was looking for.

If you roll an eye with the Rear Admiral, never, ever, re-roll it.

Forget the statistics for a second and apply common sense. What is the best result that die can get... A crit. If he reads 1 focus result as a crit, why would you ever reroll that die. If you re roll that die, it may be a crit, it may be a hit, it may be focus, it may be blank. Are any of those results better than the crit you already have? If no, why are you rerolling it? You have the best result, it can go down but not up if u reroll it. Rerolling it is blatantly wrong. It's like flipping a coin. You want heads, you have landed on tails several times this set, and you land on heads. Would you reflip the coin because statistically it should land on heads to make up for all the tails? No, you don't flip it because you win if you dont, and if you do you have a 50/50. I will take a 100% over 50% thank you.

The logic for rerolling it is that the aggregate result of the reroll is better since another die will be turned from a focus to a <kaboom>. There's a 75% chance that the die you rerolled is better or the same (assuming a <boom> is considered better because another die has access to Chiraneau's ability). Which means 25% of the time you're getting screwed on that specific die. But if you roll a focus with the rest of the dice, then there's no harm done. If you're rolling 100 dice, you pretty much KNOW that you're going to roll at least 1 focus... so you may as well roll 101 dice, and potentially turn that focus into a hit, because another die will be using his ability anyways.

Each dice has it's own % to hit though, you can't use the entire roll as a single entity because each dice acts independently. You're treating it as if it were a giant dice with all possible results on it.

At the numbers of dice we are rolling, I don't think it's as good a gamble, obviously at ridiculous high amounts of dice things would be diffrent, but we are talking usually 4 dice. You are risking a sure thing for a small chance it could be better. Statistics can be deceiving. If you are rolling enough dice to make it a statistically significant increase, you have probaly killed the enemy ship on volume of dice already. I mean what are the odds an x wing survives a 10 dice attack? Even if the odds at 4/5 dice say it will go up, it's a gamble, are the odds it goes up worth giving up the crit? If you have better player skill, and stay out of arc, you get more shots than the opponent, then no. I don't think it is. If they consistently get more shots than you, the damage spike might be worth it. Now I know Decimator isn't much at dodging arcs, but my phantoms/interceptors/etc. are. Most games I play, I get more shots than the opponent, even if they outnumber me a little. The more you are winning without gambling the less attractive gambling is, if that makes since. I guess there are situations where it may be worth it though

The way I see it is, with the Admiral's ability, that eyeball is already a crit. Would you re-roll a crit with your target lock?

assuming you are in range 2 and you want to score 3 hits (i count a crit as a hin in this case)

if you roll

hit, focus, blank

would you reroll the blank only or focus and blank?

Which option gives you a better chance to score 3 hits?

Me I'd keep the eye and re-roll the rest, sure you might get an eye again but you could also end up with blanks and hits robbing you of a crit.

The dice gods are fickle creatures tempt them not!

The non-intuitive part can be explained as follows:

If I roll 5 dice (3 + Expose + Range 1) with Chiraneau, have a TL to spend and get 1 focus and 4 blanks/focus.

I have 2 options:

• A) Re-roll all 5 dice
• B) Keep one focus and re-roll the 4 other dice.

If we look at the average number of blanks/focus/hits+crits results we get after the re-roll:

Option A)

• Blank: 5 * (2/8) = 10/8 = 1.25
• Focus: 5 * (2/8) = 10/8 = 1.25
• Hit: 5 * (4/8) = 20/8 = 2.5

Option B)

• Blank: 4 * (2/8) = 8/8 = 1
• Focus: 1 + 4 * (2/8) = 1 + 8/8 = 2
• Hit: 4 * (4/8) = 16/8 = 2

I hope that helped clear up the unintuitive part for anyone who's not a statistician!

The non-intuitive part can be explained as follows:

If I roll 5 dice (3 + Expose + Range 1) with Chiraneau, have a TL to spend and get 1 focus and 4 blanks/focus.

I have 2 options:

• A) Re-roll all 5 dice
• B) Keep one focus and re-roll the 4 other dice.

If we look at the average number of blanks/focus/hits+crits results we get after the re-roll:

Option A)

• Blank: 5 * (2/8) = 10/8 = 1.25
• Focus: 5 * (2/8) = 10/8 = 1.25
• Hit: 5 * (4/8) = 20/8 = 2.5

Option B)

• Blank: 4 * (2/8) = 8/8 = 1
• Focus: 1 + 4 * (2/8) = 1 + 8/8 = 2
• Hit: 4 * (4/8) = 16/8 = 2

After using Chiraneau's ability to flip 1 focus into a crit, we are left with (on average), 1.25 blanks with option A and 2 blanks/focus with option B. Option A is therefore better.

If you do the same calculation with a decreasing number of dice, you'll find that, at some point, Option B becomes better. This happens when it becomes unlikely that you'll roll a focus, and are therefore better off keeping the one you have.

I hope that helped clear up the unintuitive part for anyone who's not a statistician!

Well presented an legible but where in your working do you account for the playful nature of the dice goddess Eris?

assuming you are in range 2 and you want to score 3 hits (i count a crit as a hin in this case)

if you roll

hit, focus, blank

would you reroll the blank only or focus and blank?

Which option gives you a better chance to score 3 hits?

In this case, it's a toss up.

Why? Because, if you re-roll both dice, you'll get (on average), 0.5 blanks, 0.5 focus and 1 hit. With Chiraneau's ability, that's like having 0.5 blanks and 1.5 hits.

If you re-roll the single die, you'll get (on average), 0.25 blanks, 25 focus and 0.5 hit from the re-roll + 1 focus you kept (so 0.25, 1.25 and 0.5). With Chiraneau's ability, that's like having 0.5 blanks and 1.5 hits.

Me I'd keep the eye and re-roll the rest, sure you might get an eye again but you could also end up with blanks and hits robbing you of a crit.

The dice gods are fickle creatures tempt them not!

The way I see it is, with the Admiral's ability, that eyeball is already a crit. Would you re-roll a crit with your target lock?

Because, if you keep the eye, any eyes you roll will be useless.

By re-rolling the eye you already have, there is:

• a 50% chance of getting a hit/crit out of it (which is better than what you already had, since you can then use Chiraneau's ability on the other dice)
• a 25% chance of getting a focus again (so, no change)
• a 25% chance of getting a blank (so, worse than what you already had)

There's only a 25% chance you'll get something worse and a 75% chance you'll get something equivalent or better!!

The odds are in your favor!

Well presented an legible but where in your working do you account for the playful nature of the dice goddess Eris?

You forgot to read the small-type disclaimer:

* All the preceding calculations assume that you have climbed mount Olympus and sacrificed 3 virgins, 2 goats and 1 cow within the last week.

Fool the dice gods live in a nice cottage down in Kent, and only accept cola and cheetos as sacrifice.

Fool the dice gods live in a nice cottage down in Kent, and only accept cola and cheetos as sacrifice.

Kids these days and their "new" gods, with their "instant gratification"...

Do not underestimate the great power of the old gods!