@Khyros: Ouch, I admit that too many numbers and my head hurts. Yes, I was the one to bring them up.
I will say that my example uses 4 Rookies, but that probably wouldn't be the list. You can throw in an elite pilot or two that would be able to throw things in your favor, as well. I think, though, that you could bank on the average of one hit a turn. I'm fine with that, though, as it only has 4 hits.
I do believe that the chances of someone flubbing their dice, though, will allow more damage through. I've seen Phantoms take damage at Range 3 while cloaked from 3 red dice attacks numerous times to think that I would only get an average of 1 hit in with all those shoots. Sure, those are the averages, but when you fire more often you increase the risk of variance. I've done damage with my Tie Fighters vs. cloaked Phantoms before. Shoot enough and it will die.
I think having more ships works in your favor to a degree. 4 X-wings works better than 3 X-wings, but I wouldn't think 7 Tie Fighters are better.
Quite the opposite actually. The more dice you roll (or the more sets of dice you roll) the more you decrease your variance. Just the other day, I did a damage with an A wing at R3 (with a focus) against cloaked phantom... 2v5 = 1 damage...
And I made some dude really upset at Nationals when I took a 3 dice R3 obstructed shot at his 1hull phantom, AND IT WENT THROUGH for the win. But the flip side of that is that I took half a dozen R1-2 shots that failed to do any damage in order to set up that 7th shot that actually did damage.
I've also taken dozens of R1 shots against a cloak phantom that failed to do any damage. Heck I launched my Prockets against the phantom in the above example, 5FTL vs 4F and only did 2 damage...
But all of this are just examples that stick out in my head because the out of the ordinary are the ones we remember. I will conclude with actual numbers.
A phantom at R3 with a focus token has a .74% of rolling blanks. It has a 6% of only rolling 1 evade. And it has a 21% of only rolling 2 evades. Which means that if you're consistently rolling 3 hits (42%), then you only have a 27.74% of actually doing damage. If we aggregate this all out, you have a 13.51% of doing damage at R3 if both of you have a focus token. Which means that with 4 X wings shooting, you have a 44% chance of doing any damage (assuming each shot is 3F vs. 5F).