So talking about the Stealth Device vs Hull upgrade made me wonder why we didn't have an Hit/Evade Chance chart somewhere. Couldn't find one with a 5 minute search so here we go.

Yes, these aren't absolutes. You will roll better, and you will roll worse.

I didn't worry about accounting for rolling red dice, as its far easier to calculate in you head than evades. Easier to just go with flat hits.

Sets are Naked, with Focus, with Focus and Evade Token, and then Focus/Evade with Autothrusters

1st column is evade dice rolled, then the total evades that should be generated. Numbers under hits are percentile.

Naked Dice 1 Hit - 2 Hit - 3 Hit - 4 Hit - 5 Hit
1 / .375 62.5 81.25 87.5 90.62 92.5

2 / .75 25 62.5 75 81.25 85

3 / 1.125 0 43.75 62.5 71.87 87.5

4 / 1.5 0 25 50 62.5 70

5 / 1.875 0 6.25 37.5 53.12 62.5

6 / 2.25 0 0 25 43.75 55

W/ Focus 1 Hit - 2 Hit - 3 Hit - 4 Hit - 5 Hit
1 / .675 32.5 66.25 77.5 83.12 92.5
2 / 1.35 0 32.5 55 66.25 73
3 / 2.025 0 0 32.5 49.37 59.5
4 / 2.7 0 0 10 32.5 46
5 / 3.375 0 0 0 15.62 32.5
6 / 4.05 0 0 0 0 19

W/F&E 1 Hit - 2 Hit - 3 Hit - 4 Hit - 5 Hit
1 / 1.675 0 16.25 44.17 58.12 66.5
2 / 2.35 0 0 21.67 41.25 53
3 / 3.025 0 0 0 24.37 39.5

4 / 3.7 0 0 0 7.5 26

5 / 4.375 0 0 0 0 12.5

6 / 5.05 0 0 0 0 0

The works 1 Hit - 2 Hit - 3 Hit - 4 Hit - 5 Hit
1 / 2.675 0 0 10.83 33.12 46.5

2 / 3.35 0 0 0 16.25 33

3 / 4.025 0 0 0 0 19.5

4 / 4.7 0 0 0 0 6

5 / 5.375 0 0 0 0 0

6 / 6.05 0 0 0 0 0

I'll do a straight damage/negation chart at some point. But i'm tired. So blargh.
I guess i should do a chart with no focus, just Evade token too for completions sake.

-Saved-

So talking about the Stealth Device vs Hull upgrade made me wonder why we didn't have an Hit/Evade Chance chart somewhere. Couldn't find one with a 5 minute search so here we go.

Yes, these aren't absolutes. You will roll better, and you will roll worse.

I didn't worry about accounting for rolling red dice, as its far easier to calculate in you head than evades. Easier to just go with flat hits.

Sets are Naked, with Focus, with Focus and Evade Token, and then Focus/Evade with Autothrusters

1st column is hits rolled, then the total evades that should be generated.

Naked Dice 1 Hit - 2 Hit - 3 Hit - 4 Hit - 5 Hit

1 .375 62.5 81.25 87.5 90.62 92.5

2 .75 25 62.5 75 81.25 85

3 1.125 0 43.75 62.5 71.87 87.5

4 1.5 0 25 50 62.5 70

5 1.875 0 6.25 37.5 53.12 62.5

6 2.25 0 0 25 43.75 55

W/ Focus 1 Hit - 2 Hit - 3 Hit - 4 Hit - 5 Hit

1 .675 32.5 66.25 77.5 83.12 92.5

2 1.35 0 32.5 55 66.25 73

3 2.025 0 0 32.5 49.37 59.5

4 2.7 0 0 10 32.5 46

5 3.375 0 0 0 15.62 32.5

6 4.05 0 0 0 0 19

W/F&E 1 Hit - 2 Hit - 3 Hit - 4 Hit - 5 Hit

1 1.675 0 16.25 44.17 58.12 66.5

2 2.35 0 0 21.67 41.25 53

3 3.025 0 0 0 24.37 39.5

4 3.7 0 0 0 7.5 26

5 4.375 0 0 0 0 12.5

6 5.05 0 0 0 0 0

The works 1 Hit - 2 Hit - 3 Hit - 4 Hit - 5 Hit

1 2.675 0 0 10.83 33.12 46.5

2 3.35 0 0 0 16.25 33

3 4.025 0 0 0 0 19.5

4 4.7 0 0 0 0 6

5 5.375 0 0 0 0 0

6 6.05 0 0 0 0 0

I'll do a straight damage/negation chart at some point. But i'm tired. So blergh.

The calculations are out there somewhere.

I'm not following your charts. I'm guess the first column that has the two tightly spaced numbers are the number of defense dice you roll and the average number of [squiggles] you should get from them. It's the numbers after that which I don't understand at all.

Editing it for clarity. 1st column is how many dice you are rolling, then how many evades you should generate. Other columns are chance that an attack will hit. Um, in hindsight i should have made it chance to evade. /fail Also i labeled it hits when it should have been evades. Terribleness.

Maybe I'm seeing it but your last columns are over simplified. The first column may give you the average number of evades rolled but when it comes to figuring out how many hits get through you would need to use hard numbers.

Rolling 3 defense dice may average 1.125 evades but there is still room for a hit to get through when all three come up fail. Looking at naked defense dice here is how much of 1 [hit] will normally get through depending on the number of defense dice roller.

1 = .675

2 = .391

3 = .244

4 = .153

5 = .095

6 = .060

In each of those cases what you needed to be looking at are the chances that the defense dice FAIL to stop a hit. There is a 6% chance when rolling six dice that all will come up blank/eye and thus allow that 1 hit to get through. Looking at your numbers you'd have us believe that a ship rolling 3 defense dice would be immune to damage if only 1 hit were rolled.

I put a disclaimer up at the top. These are merely what the law of averages dictates you should see. The math SAYS that Fel with Focus and Evade should be immune to Han at R 3, but we've all been there when you roll all blanks. Im not that good at math sorcery to factor in how often you will roll blanks. This is just a rough estimate.

I really just wanted to put up a chart so someone could see at a glance how well they should survive against say, an HLC shot, or a Phantom at R1. Or a Proton rocket pumped up with Expose.

I keep these sites bookmarked:

http://www.afewmaneuvers.com/tags/ccs/Math-Wing/

http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/915146/math-wing-hit-probabilities

The danger in trying to do statistics when you don't know statistics: you can come up with very misleading information.

There is no "Law of Averages" and math does not "Say" Soontir Fel or whoever and whatever "should" do X at Y situation.

There *IS*, however, is a website that does a lot of the math for you in case you're curious about the odds:

http://xwingdice.com/