I was reading some discussions about Order vs. Evil, who can out control who, etc, and I figured why not expand the discussion in the light of US Nats since it is coming up in just over one week. Most people have seen the results from the big tournaments this year, and very little in the environment will be changed for US Nats, since the bannings will not be in effect until July. Therefore, we can expect the Nats results to shape up similar to the past two big North American events - Path of the Master and CanNats. Many of the same players will be there, the same basic deck archetypes will be prevalent, and the Coolest Prize in Gaming will be on the line. These are some of the basics that you will need to know if you want to compete at US Nats 2009:
Air, Evil, and Order are the top symbols; everything else is decidedly below them.
Path of the Master results - Top 8 (3 air, 2 order, 2 evil, 1 fire), Top 4 (2 air, 1 evil, 1 order)
CanNats 2009 results - Top 8 (3 air, 2 order, 3 evil), Top 4 (2 air, 2 order)
Many regional results have been similar. I recently attended a regional in KY where the top 4 was 2 evil, 1 order, and 1 air. This is not to say the other symbols cannot surprise you, but these three are the big ones you need to plan for.
That being said, here's a comparison of these three symbols in order to better understand how they work and discuss the key strategies/cards used in these decks.
Board Presence/Control
Air - Chester's Backing, Chinese Boxing, Inhuman Perception, Perfect Sense of Balance
Order - BRT, Program, Chinese, Experienced Combatant, Charismatic, Psycho Style, and Dormant for Millions of Years
Evil - BRT, Red Lotus, Oral Dead, Charismatic, Revenant's Calling, Chester's Backing, and Evil Doer Destroyer
As you can see, all three symbols have a pretty healthy does of board disruption/control and/or negation. Number wise, Air has fewer of these cards than the other two symbols, but makes up for it a bit by getting double use with Shooting Capoera. Order has by far the most committal and is more proactive with its board control than the reactive Evil. Basically, when Order doesn't like something it just commits it. When Evil doesn't like something, it negates it. Both are strong, but I have to give the slight edge to Evil due to Revenant's Calling. In the head to head control battle, Revenant's is simply too amazing. It is the number one card you want in play when the opponent is stacking up control pieces.
1st - Evil
2nd - Order
3rd - Air
Attacks/Win Conditions
Air - multiples (Feline Spike, Hokoyu Sen, Menuett Dance), control (Heel Snipe, Ira Spinta)
Order - Juni's Spiral Arrow, Ira Spinta, Kazuya Reppa
Evil - The combo (Ichi no Tachi/Reverse Flayer, Midnight Launcher, Knight Breaker) and Forward Kick (with Hanzo, typically an Evil base, so I've included it here)
Air can put out the most damage with it slew of multiples and easy momentum generation. Air also has two great control attacks and a good number of reversals. Air has the all around most versatile attack lineup. For making its attacks hit, Air doesn't really do anything special. It has stun and other commit effects, but that's about it. Order has the best lockdown/control attacks. It also has some good ways to push attacks through with mass committal, speed pumps (Enslaved, Hwang's), and control haxx (BRT, Forethought). This is crucial for order, as most of the time it just needs to hit you once with the Spiral and you will not recover. Evil struggles the most in this category as it must kill with a string of attacks (unless you're Hanzo). Evil typically needs to play at least three attacks in the same turn in a specific order. This often means that Evil cannot attack early on and has to worry about abilities that can be triggered on multiple attacks like Shooting Capoera. Evil also has the most trouble killing the large vitality characters. Order can loop the Arrow until they are dead and Air can just do insane amounts of damage, but Evil doesn't have either luxury unless you are Hanzo. Evil does have some great ways of pushing attacks through, with Bitter Rivals, Ways of Punishment, and Blood Runs True. Overall, Order and air have distinct advantages over Evil in this category, but Air shines even above Order with the versatility that its attacks bring to the table.
1st - Air
2nd - Order
3rd - Evil
Characters
Air - Chun Li, Andrew Olexa, Mignon
Order - Gill, Donovan, Seong Mi-Na
Evil - Akuma, Hanzo, Zi Mei, Jon Herr
Air has perhaps the most hated and most meta-defining character right now in Chun Li. She can cause such disruption on the opponent's turn, in today's environment, that a great deal of a deck's viability is dependent on how well it can deal with Chun Li. Olexa and Mignon both bring momentum gen to the table to help fuel those multiples. Mignon can play the ever popular Feline Spike easier on the opponent's turn as a Reversal. Olexa brings more control to Air with his haxx and A New Low turns him into a pseudo-Chun Li.
Order Spiral decks typically rely less on their character than other competitive decks, so almost any 7 hand size character with order has the potential to be a competitor. Order has several good 7 hand size characters such as Donovan, Guy, and Nagase. However, no one does it better than Gill with his 8 hand size. Seong Mi-Na takes on a little bit different structure than most other Order decks due to her recursion ability and small hand size.
Evil has great control with Akuma. He has committal and a great haxx ability that can be used on both players' turns. He also has nice support with Seclusion. Zi Mei brings great aggro abilities and a pretty good multiple attack that doesn't require momentum, which is nice considering Evil's momentum gen is not stellar. Jon Herr is typically built very similar to Akuma/Zi Mei, but has the added ability to move bad checks to the bottom of the deck. Hanzo is played for the kick, but his response ability isn't bad for building either. All of these evil decks really rely on their character cards, unlike the non-SM order decks, so if you can shut down the character, Evil could struggle.
Overall, this one is pretty close; Order scores some major points for the big hand size and the ability to not care about the opponent's Tag Along. Evil brings the character specific goodies like Seculsion, Forward Kick, and Zi Mei Multiple. However, Chun Li alone gives Air the edge. There were a total of 5 Chun Lis in the top 8 decks at CanNats before diversity was applied - three actual Chun Li decks and 2 more hiding in the sideboards. At US Nats, you are more likely to run into Chun Li than any other character, thus Air gets the edge.
1st - Air
2nd - Order
3rd - Evil
Wildcards
These are the potential surprises, or cards that we haven't seen yet in the highest levels of competition this year, but that could have an impact at US Nats.
Order - Order gets a nice boost from the reprint of Cursed Blood that can really speed up the Spiral lock. Look for this card to be making its way into the standard order decks.
Air - Undercover Agent offers Air a really good deterrent against the other two power symbols. Typically the control battles against Evil and Order can last a while and both sides will have multiple copies of the same cards in play. We've seen Evil decks using Revenant's Calling to help in the long game, but few people seem to be running Air's best answer to repeat offenders. UA allows Air isn't as versatile as Revenant's, but it will really make the opponent think about using multiple abilities in a given turn. Willful is another card that has been giving Air an advantage over the other two symbols. With Olexa, Akuma, BRT, and Forethought all over the place, Willful is surely going to bring some punishment for haxx at this year's Nats.
Evil - Evil doesn't really get anything new since CanNats, nor are there any Evil tricks of note that aren't already being used.
So that was just a general overview of the top 3 symbols and what you can expect from them. Based on the last couple of tournaments, Air appears to be the favorite to win, but either of these other two have more than enough capabilities to pull it out. In the end it's going to come down to the players behind the decks and the matchups. But you can bet on it that most of the top decks will be utilizing one of these three symbols.
I hope this helps anyone planning on going to Nats to better understand our current competitive environment. Check out my next thread for a more in depth look at the top decks going into US Nats, including some that are not Air, Evil, or Order!