Leebo and Determination

By barabelsftw, in X-Wing

So I played a list with Leebo and Determination last night. I was down to 2 hull and 4 uncanceled crits from a decimator. Took one crit in total and the other 3 were canceled. All in all I ended up canceling at least 5 crits. This felt totally worth the 1 point investment. Is this normal for everyone else who's played leebo with determination or was I incredibly lucky?

Nope. That's normal.

You cycled through 15 of the 33 cards in the deck, and found 16/32 of the Pilot crits. Very close to being ideal variance, there.

Amusingly, having 2 agility means that substantially more of your incoming damage will be crits, which means that cycling increases.

Edit:: Nope, I confused Leebo's numbers with Maarek Stele's. You cycled through 10/33 and got 16/32, which is higher than normal.

Edited by DraconPyrothayan

Nope. That's normal.

You cycled through 15 of the 33 cards in the deck, and found 16/32 of the Pilot crits. Very close to being ideal variance, there.

Amusingly, having 2 agility means that substantially more of your incoming damage will be crits, which means that cycling increases.

Edit:: Nope, I confused Leebo's numbers with Maarek Stele's. You cycled through 10/33 and got 16/32, which is higher than normal.

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here. What 16/32 pilot crits? There are only 8 pilot crits in the 33 cards. Seems like he was quite lucky indeed seeing as how only about 1 of every 4 damage cards should be a pilot crit.

Nope. That's normal.

You cycled through 15 of the 33 cards in the deck, and found 16/32 of the Pilot crits. Very close to being ideal variance, there.

Amusingly, having 2 agility means that substantially more of your incoming damage will be crits, which means that cycling increases.

Edit:: Nope, I confused Leebo's numbers with Maarek Stele's. You cycled through 10/33 and got 16/32, which is higher than normal.

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here. What 16/32 pilot crits? There are only 8 pilot crits in the 33 cards. Seems like he was quite lucky indeed seeing as how only about 1 of every 4 damage cards should be a pilot crit.

And one crit drew up two pilot crits

Nope. That's normal.

You cycled through 15 of the 33 cards in the deck, and found 16/32 of the Pilot crits. Very close to being ideal variance, there.

Amusingly, having 2 agility means that substantially more of your incoming damage will be crits, which means that cycling increases.

Edit:: Nope, I confused Leebo's numbers with Maarek Stele's. You cycled through 10/33 and got 16/32, which is higher than normal.

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here. What 16/32 pilot crits? There are only 8 pilot crits in the 33 cards. Seems like he was quite lucky indeed seeing as how only about 1 of every 4 damage cards should be a pilot crit.

There are only 8 pilot cards, and he drew at least 4 of them. I multiplied both by 4 to show the approximation to the whole.

I got my 2400 early and Leebo with determination is my favorite build. However it works out the same for me as Chewie with determination, the pilot crits seem to evaporate from my damage deck and never discard aything.

Being able to cancel a crit with Leebo + Determination is as follows, assuming no other cards are drawn.

8/33 (draw first pilot) + 25/33 (don't draw pilot on first) * 7/32 (draw pilot on 2nd card) = 40.8% for a single discard.

Now technically as this continues to happen and you draw (and discard) more pilot cards, this goes down. For example, if we assume that you always draw 2 cards, and only ever draw one pilot crit, then the chance to get the second card discarded is:

7/31 (draw pilot first) + 23/31 (don't draw pilot first) * 7/30 (draw pilot on 2nd) = 39.8% for a second discard.

And it keeps going down from there. This should theoretically ignore the face down cards you draw for regular hits since there is no additional information, and you don't know whether it was a pilot or a ship crit.

But assuming that each time you have a 40.8% chance to remove a damage (which is obviously false, but I don't care to calculate all scenarios) then the probability of discarding 4 out of 5 would be

.4^4 (four crits are discarded) *.6 (one crit is not) *5 (5 ways for this to happen) = 7.68%

So, not unreasonable, but not likely. If we assume that with 2 agility and 5 hull, you're likely to receive 3 crits over course of the game, then the average amount of cards Leebo + Determination discard is:

Probability of discarding 0 = .6 ^ 3 = 21.6%

Probability of discarding 1 = .4 * .6 ^2 * 3 = 43.2%

Probability of discarding 2 = .4 ^ 2 * .6 * 3 = 28.8%

Probability of discarding 3 = .4 ^ 3 = 6.4%

Average Discard = .432 + .288*2 + .064*3 = 1.2 damage cards