The following is a list of every ship in the game, sorted by the minimum number of dice required to one-shot them.

For the record, the most dice currently throwable by a single ship in a round is 7 (Prockets or Adv Protons + Opportunist + Jan Ors).

2. TIE Fighter, TIE Interceptor
3. TIE Phantom, TIE Bomber, A-Wing, Z95, HWK-290
4. TIE Advanced, X-Wing, E-Wing
5. TIE Defender
6. Y-Wing
7. Firespray-31, ORS YT-1300, B-Wing, Corvette Aft
   
8. Lambda-Class Shuttle, YT-2400, Transport
9. Corvette Fore, Named YT-1300
10. VT-49 Decimator

I would love to examine these figures against the number of dice required to one-shot them 50% of the time. Any Mathwingers available to help me out?

Can't be done just by looking at number of dice because that's not the only factor. One of the most important parts of a one-shot kill is how many crits you get. For example, it is impossible to one-shot a y-wing without getting crits (8 HP vs. max of 7 hits). So in that case there's a huge difference between a proton torpedo shot and a concussion missile shot, even though both weapons roll the same number of dice with equal-value dice modification from a hits-only perspective. Similarly, an autoblaster has a pretty good chance of killing a TIE in one shot regardless of its green dice, while a HLC rolls more dice but has to deal with focus + evade stacks.

Now, if you assume an ideal world with no crits or special weapons you could come up with a "dice required" value for each ship, but that won't really help you answer the "how likely am I to lose this ship in one shot" question in a real game.

Can't be done just by looking at number of dice because that's not the only factor. One of the most important parts of a one-shot kill is how many crits you get.

Your second sentence explains why the first sentence is wrong - you CAN calculate the exact PDF for hits and crits.

I'm already doing this with my script function calls now, I just haven't tailored it to look at this specifically.

To Pyro: I'm a tease, and not going to run off and calculate it right now.

Can't be done just by looking at number of dice because that's not the only factor. One of the most important parts of a one-shot kill is how many crits you get.

Yes. These numbers require getting crits on all the even-numbered hull, and for those crits to come up as either Direct Hit or Minor Explosion (successfully in the latter's case) every time.

These are theoretically likely, but not exceedingly so.

MajorJuggler's scripts will be very helpful in determining the LD50 of dice for these ships, so I'm very glad he's on the case!

Your second sentence explains why the first sentence is wrong - you CAN calculate the exact PDF for hits and crits.

What I mean is that you can't reduce it to a single number of dice needed for a 50% chance because there are different kinds of dice that generate crits at different rates. Obviously you can deal with the predicted outcome of crits once you decide how likely they are, but you can't just say that a proton torpedo and a concussion missile are both "4 dice". Nor can you just ignore the difference and only consider "standard" dice, because in a real game some of the biggest one-shot threats are from "special" weapons and/or abilities.

Yeah, I was assuming with a particular case like he cited in the OP, Proton Rockets or Advanced Proton Torpedoes.

Your second sentence explains why the first sentence is wrong - you CAN calculate the exact PDF for hits and crits.

What I mean is that you can't reduce it to a single number of dice needed for a 50% chance because there are different kinds of dice that generate crits at different rates. Obviously you can deal with the predicted outcome of crits once you decide how likely they are, but you can't just say that a proton torpedo and a concussion missile are both "4 dice". Nor can you just ignore the difference and only consider "standard" dice, because in a real game some of the biggest one-shot threats are from "special" weapons and/or abilities.

I'm looking at the Theoretically Possible, not the Remotely Probable.

Can't be done just by looking at number of dice because that's not the only factor. One of the most important parts of a one-shot kill is how many crits you get.

Your second sentence explains why the first sentence is wrong - you CAN calculate the exact PDF for hits and crits.

I'm already doing this with my script function calls now, I just haven't tailored it to look at this specifically.

To Pyro: I'm a tease, and not going to run off and calculate it right now.

That's another question when will we get the odds of crits actually doing more than 1 damage. I know it is a little tricky as there are a lot of cards that are situational such as council fire requiring an action to not be taken and of course minor hull explosion which does an additional damage if rolled a hit. Then again there are also a lot of cards that don't do anything like munitions failure on a Tie fighter.

Check my math, I could have screwed something up.

2 raw attack dice vs 3 raw defence dice, to one-shot a TIE Fighter or TIE Interceptor.

Pr(CC) and Pr(at least one DDam) and Pr(no evades)

or

Pr(CC) and Pr(only one MExpl result+success, without a DDam) and Pr(no evades)

or

Pr(CC) and Pr(two MExpl results, at least one success) and Pr(no evades)

or

Pr(HC) and Pr(DDam) and Pr(no evades)

or

Pr(HC) and Pr(MExpl success) and Pr(no evades)

=

(1/64) (1 - 26/33 x 25/32) (5/8)^3

+

(1/64) (2 x 2/33 x 25/32) (3/8) (5/8)^3

+

(1/64) (2/33 x 1/32) (1 - 5/8 x 5/8) (5/8)^3

+

(6/64) (7/33) (5/8)^3

+

(6/64) (2/33) (3/8) (5/8)^3

= (7730875 / 1107296256)

~= 0.7 %

Can't be done just by looking at number of dice because that's not the only factor. One of the most important parts of a one-shot kill is how many crits you get.

Yes. These numbers require getting crits on all the even-numbered hull, and for those crits to come up as either Direct Hit or Minor Explosion (successfully in the latter's case) every time.

These are theoretically likely, but not exceedingly so.

MajorJuggler's scripts will be very helpful in determining the LD50 of dice for these ships, so I'm very glad he's on the case!

XD!

Lethal dose of dice...

I just one-shotted a z-95 with a prox bomb (that I deployed right under him from a firespray. One hit and two crits and the one crit that got past his shields was a direct hit.

I believe it is physically possible to one shot every ship. Or at least if you're Rexlar Brath supported by Yorr. Worst case is the Decimator.

Cluster Misslies, Yorr, Opportunist

Attack #1, use opportunist (Yorr takes stress), roll 4 hits

Attack #2, use opportunist, roll 2 hits and 2 crits

Both face down cards are direct damage

Both face up cards are minor explosions

Resole both minor explosions successfully

Both face down cards are direct damage

Spend focus to flip all cards face up

Re-resolve minor explosions successfully twice

Draw 2 more cards.

You now have 4 direct damage cards, and 4 face down cards for a total of 12 hull. It's technically possible for a Decimator to be 1 shot. Given, I did tne probability on it awhile ago, and it was a ridiculously small %. Feel free to do the math again if you want to figure it out.

So who is the most cost-effecient one shotter?

I've been running a lot of Keyan + EI + Expose for 5 dice at R1. I've played some builds with a Jan Ors in there, but Jan dies pretty quickly because everyone knows how much she's going to make it hurt. That would put me at 6 dice.

I can give you a number to one shot a Tie fighter without focus at least 50% of the time, you need 5 attack dices with focus.

I believe it is physically possible to one shot every ship. Or at least if you're Rexlar Brath supported by Yorr. Worst case is the Decimator.

Cluster Misslies, Yorr, Opportunist

Attack #1, use opportunist (Yorr takes stress), roll 4 hits

Attack #2, use opportunist, roll 2 hits and 2 crits

Both face down cards are direct damage

Both face up cards are minor explosions

Resole both minor explosions successfully

Both face down cards are direct damage

Spend focus to flip all cards face up

Re-resolve minor explosions successfully twice

Draw 2 more cards.

You now have 4 direct damage cards, and 4 face down cards for a total of 12 hull. It's technically possible for a Decimator to be 1 shot. Given, I did tne probability on it awhile ago, and it was a ridiculously small %. Feel free to do the math again if you want to figure it out.

I need to do this

Phew, so I finished a script that just theoretically work to calculate all the damage from the Criticals. It works like this:

• Firstly, I note the Hull and Shield value of the ship, along with its base agility.
• Then, I do a trinomial distribution of hits/crits/blanks (probabilities 5/8, 1/8, 2/8 in the focused case)
• I then subtract the agility value rolled with a normal binomial distribution (also a focused defense)
• The excess hits/crits are counted, I subtract the shield value. I note the number of actual crits that passed the shields
• I take the distribution of probabilities of extra damage from criticals, counting the fact that I remove cards. I count Direct Hits (7/33) and Minor Explosions (2/33 with 50% probability of hitting). I implement removal of cards by making a tree of outcomes after each "withdrawal". This is rather computationally intensive, being recursive.
• I add this extra damage to the damage already done, and I compute the probability of this current configuration to take place, which I add to a total
• I sum up the probabilities of making (shield + hull) or more damage

edit: Pressed Enter by mistake, post not complete yet

edit2: GTG will finish post later (with results!)

Here's a table for extra damage from criticals, with probabilities of taking x damage while drawing a number of cards.

Cards\Dmg Avg 0 dmg 1 dmg 2 dmg 3 dmg 4 dmg 5 dmg 6 dmg 7 dmg 8 dmg 9 dmg 10 dmg
0 cards 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1 cards 0.24 76% 24% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 cards 0.48 57% 38% 5.4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 cards 0.73 42% 44% 13% 1.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 cards 0.97 31% 45% 21% 3.5% 0.18% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 cards 1.2 23% 42% 27% 7.2% 0.78% 0.027% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

6 cards 1.5 16% 38% 32% 12% 2% 0.14% 0.0033% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 cards 1.7 12% 33% 34% 17% 3.9% 0.44% 0.021% 0.00031% 0% 0% 0%
8 cards 1.9 8% 28% 35% 21% 6.5% 1% 0.076% 0.0023% 2e-05% 0% 0%
9 cards 2.2 5.5% 23% 34% 25% 9.8% 2% 0.21% 0.0098% 0.00017% 6.5e-07% 0%
10 cards 2.4 3.7% 18% 32% 29% 13% 3.4% 0.46% 0.03% 0.00083% 6.5e-06% 0%
11 cards 2.7 2.5% 14% 29% 31% 17% 5.4% 0.91% 0.077% 0.0029% 3.6e-05% 0%
12 cards 2.9 1.6% 10% 26% 32% 21% 7.8% 1.6% 0.17% 0.0085% 0.00014% 0%
13 cards 3.2 1% 7.6% 22% 31% 24% 11% 2.6% 0.34% 0.021% 0.00046% 0%
14 cards 3.4 0.63% 5.4% 18% 30% 27% 14% 4.1% 0.64% 0.048% 0.0013% 0%
15 cards 3.6 0.38% 3.8% 14% 28% 29% 17% 5.9% 1.1% 0.098% 0.0032% 0%

I'm pretty sure it is correct, but it is very hard to verify all the data due to Minor Explosion coming up everywhere with 50% probability of hitting, so it's both a "favourable" card and an "unfavourable" card.

So here are the chances of a ship being one-shotted, sorted from the least survivable to the most survivable (YT-1300 with Chewbacca crew is not here because it won't die to 10 dice)

The data is rather interesting, it's a nice measure of a ship's survivability. It is however a single attack, so this tends to favour ships with less dice. I put in Chewbacca crew card for some ships, since it's the most interesting upgrade in this context (Hull + Shield + Stealth are less interesting). I considered Chewbacca to be 2 shields extra, since he can choose to discard an extra damage card, if any appear.

Remember, this is x focused dice against a focused defense. If you put in TL+F, data looks much different.

It's easiest to check the data with the Phantom. With 3 dice, you need at least one critical and zero defense, and by pulling 1 critical damage card you need an extra damage.

P(H or C) * P(H or C) * P(H or C) * P(nada) * P(nada) * ( 1 - P(crit, if we know it's at least a hit/focus) ^ 3) * P(extra damage for one card)

6/8 * 6/8 * 6/8 * 3/8 * 3/8 * (1 - 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) * (7 + 2 * 1/2)/33 = 0.006059126

TIE/Ln
2 dice: 0.235 % of dying
3 dice: 3.69 % of dying
4 dice: 15.7 % of dying
5 dice: 36.4 % of dying
6 dice: 58.7 % of dying
7 dice: 76.5 % of dying
8 dice: 88 % of dying
9 dice: 94.3 % of dying
10 dice: 97.5 % of dying
TIE/Phantom
3 dice: 0.606 % of dying
4 dice: 6.92 % of dying
5 dice: 24.1 % of dying
6 dice: 47.6 % of dying
7 dice: 68.8 % of dying
8 dice: 83.4 % of dying
9 dice: 92 % of dying
10 dice: 96.4 % of dying
A-wing
3 dice: 0.227 % of dying
4 dice: 2.94 % of dying
5 dice: 12.6 % of dying
6 dice: 30.3 % of dying
7 dice: 51.5 % of dying
8 dice: 70.1 % of dying
9 dice: 83.4 % of dying
10 dice: 91.6 % of dying
HWK-290
3 dice: 0.0235 % of dying
4 dice: 0.808 % of dying
5 dice: 6.51 % of dying
6 dice: 21.4 % of dying
7 dice: 42.7 % of dying
8 dice: 63.4 % of dying
9 dice: 79.1 % of dying
10 dice: 89.1 % of dying
X-wing
4 dice: 0.669 % of dying
5 dice: 6.2 % of dying
6 dice: 21 % of dying
7 dice: 42.3 % of dying
8 dice: 63.1 % of dying
9 dice: 78.9 % of dying
10 dice: 89 % of dying
TIE/Phantom cloaked
3 dice: 0.0852 % of dying
4 dice: 1.23 % of dying
5 dice: 6.22 % of dying
6 dice: 17.8 % of dying
7 dice: 35.3 % of dying
8 dice: 54.6 % of dying
9 dice: 71.4 % of dying
10 dice: 83.5 % of dying
TIE/Adv
4 dice: 0.251 % of dying
5 dice: 2.7 % of dying
6 dice: 11.1 % of dying
7 dice: 26.9 % of dying
8 dice: 46.6 % of dying
9 dice: 65.2 % of dying
10 dice: 79.5 % of dying
TIE/D
5 dice: 0.228 % of dying
6 dice: 2.27 % of dying
7 dice: 9.29 % of dying
8 dice: 23 % of dying
9 dice: 41.2 % of dying
10 dice: 59.6 % of dying
HWK-290 with Chewbacca
5 dice: 0.035 % of dying
6 dice: 0.721 % of dying
7 dice: 4.76 % of dying
8 dice: 15.5 % of dying
9 dice: 32.6 % of dying
10 dice: 51.8 % of dying
Y-wing
6 dice: 0.13 % of dying
7 dice: 1.71 % of dying
8 dice: 8.72 % of dying
9 dice: 23.5 % of dying
10 dice: 42.8 % of dying
B-wing
7 dice: 1.19 % of dying
8 dice: 7.76 % of dying
9 dice: 22.3 % of dying
10 dice: 41.8 % of dying
Lambda shuttle
8 dice: 0.123 % of dying
9 dice: 1.35 % of dying
10 dice: 6.33 % of dying
YT-1300 (ORS)
7 dice: 0.00507 % of dying
8 dice: 0.154 % of dying
9 dice: 1.43 % of dying
10 dice: 6.47 % of dying
B-wing with Chewbacca
9 dice: 0.794 % of dying
10 dice: 5.15 % of dying
FS-31
7 dice: 0.0019 % of dying
8 dice: 0.061 % of dying
9 dice: 0.627 % of dying
10 dice: 3.22 % of dying
YT-2400
8 dice: 0.0461 % of dying
9 dice: 0.574 % of dying
10 dice: 3.1 % of dying
YT-2400 with Chewbacca
10 dice: 0.0371 % of dying
YT-1300 (named)
9 dice: 0.000249 % of dying
10 dice: 0.0114 % of dying
VT-49
10 dice: 4.56e-07 % of dying

Where's Vessary's math? He has an easier time critting people, and can cause people to draw more cards than dice rolled. And as such, mathematically can 1 shot the 16 health VT-49 with only 8 dice.

Where's Vessary's math? He has an easier time critting people, and can cause people to draw more cards than dice rolled. And as such, mathematically can 1 shot the 16 health VT-49 with only 8 dice.

That's Rexler, not Vessery. And he can't one-shot a Decimator with 8 dice because of the shields. He could do max 12 damage. He would need 10 dice to one-shot the Decimator.

Assuming 10 red dice, and him firing red dice with no modification, he has to hit all 10, then spend his focus token to flip them all faceup, so I just add the critical damage distribution for 8 cards.

(1/2)^10 * P(8 extra damage) = 0.00000001934252881486% chance, or 1.934253e-08, so an incredibly small chance.

edit: also, he can't give more crits than dice he has thrown, the ability applies only to the damage cards given in that attack.

Where's Vessary's math? He has an easier time critting people, and can cause people to draw more cards than dice rolled. And as such, mathematically can 1 shot the 16 health VT-49 with only 8 dice.

That's Rexler, not Vessery. And he can't one-shot a Decimator with 8 dice because of the shields. He could do max 12 damage. He would need 10 dice to one-shot the Decimator.

Assuming 10 red dice, and him firing red dice with no modification, he has to hit all 10, then spend his focus token to flip them all faceup, so I just add the critical damage distribution for 8 cards.

(1/2)^10 * P(8 extra damage) = 0.00000001934252881486% chance, or 1.934253e-08, so an incredibly small chance.

edit: also, he can't give more crits than dice he has thrown, the ability applies only to the damage cards given in that attack.

See my analysis above, he can indeed one shot him. All it takes is Yorr, Cluster Missiles, TL to fire said missiles, Focus to flip crits up and Opportunist (with a tad bit of luck).

Where's Vessary's math? He has an easier time critting people, and can cause people to draw more cards than dice rolled. And as such, mathematically can 1 shot the 16 health VT-49 with only 8 dice.

That's Rexler, not Vessery. And he can't one-shot a Decimator with 8 dice because of the shields. He could do max 12 damage. He would need 10 dice to one-shot the Decimator.

Assuming 10 red dice, and him firing red dice with no modification, he has to hit all 10, then spend his focus token to flip them all faceup, so I just add the critical damage distribution for 8 cards.

(1/2)^10 * P(8 extra damage) = 0.00000001934252881486% chance, or 1.934253e-08, so an incredibly small chance.

edit: also, he can't give more crits than dice he has thrown, the ability applies only to the damage cards given in that attack.

See my analysis above, he can indeed one shot him. All it takes is Yorr, Cluster Missiles, TL to fire said missiles, Focus to flip crits up and Opportunist (with a tad bit of luck).

edit: I looked at another post, oops. I see now, very funny.

Where's Vessary's math? He has an easier time critting people, and can cause people to draw more cards than dice rolled. And as such, mathematically can 1 shot the 16 health VT-49 with only 8 dice.

That's Rexler, not Vessery. And he can't one-shot a Decimator with 8 dice because of the shields. He could do max 12 damage. He would need 10 dice to one-shot the Decimator.

Assuming 10 red dice, and him firing red dice with no modification, he has to hit all 10, then spend his focus token to flip them all faceup, so I just add the critical damage distribution for 8 cards.

(1/2)^10 * P(8 extra damage) = 0.00000001934252881486% chance, or 1.934253e-08, so an incredibly small chance.

edit: also, he can't give more crits than dice he has thrown, the ability applies only to the damage cards given in that attack.

See my analysis above, he can indeed one shot him. All it takes is Yorr, Cluster Missiles, TL to fire said missiles, Focus to flip crits up and Opportunist (with a tad bit of luck).

What analysis? Rexler's ability applies to only one attack, and so does Opportunist, while Cluster missiles are considered 2 attacks! And you only flip DAMAGE CARDS you give to the Decimator. He has 4 shields, so you give him at most 4 cards with 8 theoretical dice, not with that Cluster missile mumbo-jumbo.

Corran, Jan and two attacks. Not an official one shot, but one round of combat.

Corran + FCS + R7T1 + EI + Oppurtunist

Jan Ors + Wingman

Corran moves in on a target, takes a Focus then uses EI to trigger R7T1 and push into R1 with a Focus and TL.

Jan strips Corran's stress from R7T1.

Corran takes a shot with the APTs bolstered by Jan. 6 dice. Spend the Target Lock and use the Focus as needed. Regain Target Lock with FCS (you may save Opportunist or use as needed.)

Second attack, R1, primary weapon. 4 dice, unless you're using Opportunist here.

Assuming 4 dice are absorbed by shields. and nothing is blocked by tokens of any sort, the remaining 7 would be enough to effectively kill a Decimator.

Assume you put an ICT on Jan, and it'll leave you 15pts for a Prototype to block the Decimator thus ensuring a kill shot.

Where's Vessary's math? He has an easier time critting people, and can cause people to draw more cards than dice rolled. And as such, mathematically can 1 shot the 16 health VT-49 with only 8 dice.

That's Rexler, not Vessery. And he can't one-shot a Decimator with 8 dice because of the shields. He could do max 12 damage. He would need 10 dice to one-shot the Decimator.

Assuming 10 red dice, and him firing red dice with no modification, he has to hit all 10, then spend his focus token to flip them all faceup, so I just add the critical damage distribution for 8 cards.

(1/2)^10 * P(8 extra damage) = 0.00000001934252881486% chance, or 1.934253e-08, so an incredibly small chance.

edit: also, he can't give more crits than dice he has thrown, the ability applies only to the damage cards given in that attack.

See my analysis above, he can indeed one shot him. All it takes is Yorr, Cluster Missiles, TL to fire said missiles, Focus to flip crits up and Opportunist (with a tad bit of luck).

What analysis? Rexler's ability applies to only one attack, and so does Opportunist, while Cluster missiles are considered 2 attacks! And you only flip DAMAGE CARDS you give to the Decimator. He has 4 shields, so you give him at most 4 cards with 8 theoretical dice, not with that Cluster missile mumbo-jumbo.

Re-read the thread to find the analysis he wrote. It's seriously not hard to read one page.

Where's Vessary's math? He has an easier time critting people, and can cause people to draw more cards than dice rolled. And as such, mathematically can 1 shot the 16 health VT-49 with only 8 dice.

That's Rexler, not Vessery. And he can't one-shot a Decimator with 8 dice because of the shields. He could do max 12 damage. He would need 10 dice to one-shot the Decimator.

Assuming 10 red dice, and him firing red dice with no modification, he has to hit all 10, then spend his focus token to flip them all faceup, so I just add the critical damage distribution for 8 cards.

(1/2)^10 * P(8 extra damage) = 0.00000001934252881486% chance, or 1.934253e-08, so an incredibly small chance.

edit: also, he can't give more crits than dice he has thrown, the ability applies only to the damage cards given in that attack.

See my analysis above, he can indeed one shot him. All it takes is Yorr, Cluster Missiles, TL to fire said missiles, Focus to flip crits up and Opportunist (with a tad bit of luck).

What analysis? Rexler's ability applies to only one attack, and so does Opportunist, while Cluster missiles are considered 2 attacks! And you only flip DAMAGE CARDS you give to the Decimator. He has 4 shields, so you give him at most 4 cards with 8 theoretical dice, not with that Cluster missile mumbo-jumbo.

Corran, Jan and two attacks. Not an official one shot, but one round of combat.

Corran + FCS + R7T1 + EI + Oppurtunist

Jan Ors + Wingman

Corran moves in on a target, takes a Focus then uses EI to trigger R7T1 and push into R1 with a Focus and TL.

Jan strips Corran's stress from R7T1.

Corran takes a shot with the APTs bolstered by Jan. 6 dice. Spend the Target Lock and use the Focus as needed. Regain Target Lock with FCS (you may save Opportunist or use as needed.)

Second attack, R1, primary weapon. 4 dice, unless you're using Opportunist here.

Assuming 4 dice are absorbed by shields. and nothing is blocked by tokens of any sort, the remaining 7 would be enough to effectively kill a Decimator.

Assume you put an ICT on Jan, and it'll leave you 15pts for a Prototype to block the Decimator thus ensuring a kill shot.

This is outside of the topic of the thread.

As a simulation, I'm at the moment able to compute damage from multiple attacks with shared focus and evade for defense (or any other combination). But for that computation, I left out criticals since they're a nightmare to take into account for every possibility. Shared focus between two attacks is also something I can't put in at the moment and would be quite challenging to add.

You can "one shot" a decimator without as crazy trickery with :

Fett, opportunist, cluster missiles, Darth Vader

Yorr

Spend TL, yorr takes stress for opportunist, first attack for 4 shields, Vader for direct hit, opportunist again, second attack, 4 direct hit crits, Vader for one more.

You can also "one shot" a deci with Corran and Expose at range 1. That's all you need. And luck I guess.