MathWing: Comprehensive ship jousting values and more

By MajorJuggler, in X-Wing

13%? You probably misunderstood. 67% of the time, the attacker will have a focus available to spend - that is the assumption. 13% would be way too low. That would be like only getting your action 1 out of 4 times, and then spending your focus on defense before you attack half of the time.

You typed "ficus" instead of "focus", and he made a joke.

:)

Ha ha, I am slow. And smart phone fail. Well done sir, well done. :-)

I realize we were talking ficus for a second but if one where to run advanced with sensor jammer I would be highly inclined to run Jax probably with auto thrusters and either stealth device, shield upgrade or hull upgrade. Though I am going to guess the standard set up for them will be advanced targeting computer for any advanced with ps 7+ and alozan so I guess proabably 5+ and accuracy corrector on any advanced with ps lower than 5.

The higher PS pilots being the most likely to acquire a target lock and to benefit from the atc.

The lower ps pilots won't be able to target lock their chosen targets nearly as often so won't be able to take advantage of the atc as often but with accuracy corrector they can make some impressive tanks. Always doing 2 damage and always spending their action to defend.

Yes. Ordnance is a one-off so you can't look at it as jousting value, which the way I have defined it here counts as many rounds of continuous damage output and damage intake.

Ordnance basically spends extra squad points in the hope of doing at least that much more additional hit points worth of damage to the opponent. It is highly situational and depends on what you are shooting at.

The best way to approach it would be to calculate the one-off, then calculate the JV after he has no torpedoes. Ditto if he has two torpedoes.

Ah, I see what you're saying about the many rounds of combat and how you've defined jousting value.

Should be interesting to see what you come up with for looking at ordinance, should you ever feel so motivated.

I think I speak for everyone when I say thanks for all the hard work you've put into this!

Since we have the Mangler Cannon spoiled, I ran the numbers for the YT-2400 in green .

Generic PS2: you lose the donut hole, but the cost efficiency drops from 75% with an HLC, to 65%, which is about halfway between an Outer Rim Smuggler and Chewbacca. The main advantage here is that it could be an effective 39 point filler ship in place of 3 Talas. (Credit: Paul Heaver)

Dash + Mangler + Outrider + PtL + Kyle (no engine): you lose the donut hole, but the raw PS1 jousting efficiency drops from 89% with HLC (which is absurdly high) to a more reasonable 77%, which is about on par with the named YT-1300 pilots.

The free hit to crit layers on top of this, which is obviously nice, but the Outrider + Mangler is otherwise a relatively straightforward 3 attack turret ship.

----------------------------------------- YT-2400 --------------------------------------
Commentary

Cost | | PS1 Jousting Efficiency | req

Ship name actual|predict| PS1 | JV | std | range | eff
PS2 YT-2400 30 | 27.5 | 28.8 | 18.8 | 65.4% | 65.2% - 65.5% | 231.9%
Eaden Vrill1 32 | 29.5 | 28.6 | 18.8 | 65.8% | 65.6% - 66% | 260.4%
"Leebo" 1 34 | 32.8 | 27.3 | 18.8 | 69% | 68.7% - 69.1% | 290.1%
Dash Rendar 2 36 | 36 | 26.3 | 18.8 | 71.6% | 71.3% - 71.7% | 321.2%
PS2 YT-2400 + HLC 37 | 32.7 | 35.5 | 30.4 | 85.6% | 83.1% - 87.7% | 142.1%
Eaden Vrill* vs stressed 32 | 38.5 | 29.5 | 25.3 | 85.7% | 83.9% - 87.1% | 152.5%
PS2 + HLC* + Outrider 42 | 42.1 | 40.3 | 30.4 | 75.4% | 73.2% - 77.3% | 177.9%
PS2 + Mangler + Outrider 39 | 33.6 | 37.4 | 24.4 | 65.1% | 64% - 65.8% | 232.6%
Dash 2 +HLC+Rider+Kyle+PtL 54 | 63.6 | 41.6 | 38.5 | 92.6% | 89.3% - 95.6% | 181.5%
Dash 2 +Mangler+Out+Kyle+PtL 51 | 51.2 | 39.2 | 30.9 | 78.7% | 76.9% - 80.2% | 244.2%
58 Dash 2 58 | 68.5 | 44.8 | 38.5 | 86% | 82.9% - 88.7% | 205.7%

Manlger Cannon + Outrider: not considering affect of free hit to crit
PS2 + HLC: no outrider title. Calculated assuming ship always gets a HLC shot, same action economy. Arc coefficient reduced to 1.0 for total points prediction; total fair point value should probably be slightly higher as a result.
*Eaden Vrill calculated here as always using pilot ability (base 3 attack)
*All HLC Outriders calculated as always getting a HLC shot (optimistic)
54 Dash: free TL each round, and 2/3 chance of focus on defense
58 Dash: same as 54 Dash, plus Engine.

Edited by MajorJuggler

I keep reading and reading this and I think my lovely Z swarms are going to be screwed real soon. :(

I keep reading and reading this and I think my lovely Z swarms are going to be screwed real soon. :(

Cheap, points efficient blockers/fillers will never be screwed. Thats why Academy Pilots have been a staple right since launch day.

Z-Swarms are hard to make work despite their high jousting value. They are weak to arc dodgers, and extreme high agility ships, which basically describes Fat Han, Phantoms, and Super Dash. It would be great to see 7-8 Z Swarms do well, but they also lack positional blocking capability of TIE Fighters. What you really need is an anchor surrounded by Z's. Although I would be ecstatic if the Z-swarm suddenly became a thing.

Edit: that being said, as filler ships Z's are basically here to stay forever, barring significant power creep.

Edited by MajorJuggler

Now updated with M3-A stats. Still no dial reveal yet, so total points prediction is out. However we can infer that the PS2 is 14 points.

Cliff notes summary:

  • It is highly unlikely that either the PS2 or Ashera will see heavy use. (I am valuing Ashera's ability at only 1 point, because it is easily bypassed.)
  • The PS2 stock has a mediocre jousting efficiency.
  • The PS2 with HLC also has a mediocre jousting efficiency since the platform has such low durability.
  • Adding Hull Upgrade to PS2 + HLC + keeps the jousting efficiency almost identical. This makes Hull Upgrade a good choice (assuming you are willing to buy into the HLC to begin with), to lower its exceptionally high glass cannon ratio.
  • The PS2 with the Mangler cannon is not cost effective at all.

Cost | | PS1 Jousting Efficiency | req
Ship name actual|predict| PS1 | JV | std | range | eff
PS2 M3-A 14 | ???? | 13.4 | 12.2 | 90.8% | 90.7% - 90.9% | 128.6%
Ashera 1 18 | ???? | 14.1 | 12.2 | 86.7% | 86.6% - 86.8% | 203%
Serissu 3 20 | ???? | 12.8 | 12.2 | 95.7% | 95.6% - 95.8% | 245.7%
PS2 + HLC 23 | ???? | 22.1 | 19.6 | 88.9% | 86.5% - 91% | 133.3%
PS2 + HLC + Hull 26 | ???? | 25 | 22.4 | 89.6% | 87.1% - 91.8% | 131.4%
PS2 + Mangler 20 | ???? | 19.2 | 15.8 | 82% | 81% - 83% | 154.4%
PS2 + Mangler + Hull 23 | ???? | 22.1 | 17.9 | 81.2% | 80.1% - 82.2% | 157.2%
HLC: Assuming M3-A always has an HLC shot.
Mangler: not considering the effect of a free hit to crit.
(Edited to add Mangler cannon numbers)
Edited by MajorJuggler

Now updated with M3-A stats. Still no dial reveal yet, so total points prediction is out. However we can infer that the PS2 is 14 points.

Cliff notes summary:

  • It is highly unlikely that either the PS2 or Ashera will see heavy use. (I am valuing Ashera's ability at only 1 point, because it is easily bypassed.)
  • The PS2 stock has a mediocre jousting efficiency.
  • The PS2 with HLC also has a mediocre jousting value since the platform has such low durability.
  • Adding Hull Upgrade to PS2 + HLC + keeps the jousting efficiency almost identical. This makes Hull Upgrade a good choice (assuming you are willing to buy into the HLC to begin with), to lower its exceptionally high glass cannon ratio.

Cost | | PS1 Jousting Efficiency | req
Ship name actual|predict| PS1 | JV | std | range | eff
PS2 M3-A 14 | ???? | 13.4 | 12.2 | 90.8% | 90.7% - 90.9% | 128.6%
Ashera 1 18 | ???? | 14.1 | 12.2 | 86.7% | 86.6% - 86.8% | 203%
Serissu 3 20 | ???? | 12.8 | 12.2 | 95.7% | 95.6% - 95.8% | 245.7%
PS2 + HLC 23 | ???? | 22.1 | 19.6 | 88.9% | 86.5% - 91% | 133.3%
PS2 + HLC + Hull 26 | ???? | 25 | 22.4 | 89.6% | 87.1% - 91.8% | 131.4%
HLC: Assuming M3-A always has an HLC shot.

How's the PS2 with the Mangler look?

Updated with Mangler. Not very good.

I assume you don't consider the crit in the PS2 + Mangler figures?

I assume you don't consider the crit in the PS2 + Mangler figures?

Correct.

Updated with Mangler. Not very good.

I was expecting that to come out more efficient than it is. It looks like the M3-A might have trouble finding a niche that isn't filled by either the Z-95 or BTL-4A Y-Wing. Hopefully, it's dial will have something that gives it a place in Scum lists.

Now updated with M3-A stats. Still no dial reveal yet, so total points prediction is out. However we can infer that the PS2 is 14 points.

The article says that the Cartel Spacer is 14 points in the graf directly below the animated 360-degree view of the figure:

The Scyk is a lightly armored and lightly shielded interceptor that features tremendous customizability, and its low cost made it a favorite of the Hutt Cartel and Car’das smugglers, who purchased it in large quantities. Accordingly, the ship enters X-Wing as an agile, but lightly armored, starship with two attack, three agility, two hull, and one shield. Piloted by a Cartel Spacer, the cheapest of these Scyk interceptors costs you only fourteen squad points.

Edited by Danthrax

Now updated with M3-A stats. Still no dial reveal yet, so total points prediction is out. However we can infer that the PS2 is 14 points.

The article says that the Cartel Spacer is 14 points in the graf directly below the animated 360-degree view of the figure:

"Total points prediction" in the context of this thread is my formula's total points prediction, not the unspoiled printed costs on the card.

Now updated with M3-A stats. Still no dial reveal yet, so total points prediction is out. However we can infer that the PS2 is 14 points.

The article says that the Cartel Spacer is 14 points in the graf directly below the animated 360-degree view of the figure:

"Total points prediction" in the context of this thread is my formula's total points prediction, not the unspoiled printed costs on the card.

ah, OK.

I guess a stealth device Ashera with a nice HLC gains jousting efficiency. Pair him with a bodyguard wingman, or naked serissu. That would make her a difficult choice, making Ashera more valuable.

I guess HLC flanking Ashera actually is the thing with this ship, unless the dial ends up being unbelievable. You better hit hard, or good luck to kill him. Dang, Mandalorian merc bodyguard/rec spec. The hard choices...

edit: Hard choice to choose your objetcive when attacking.

Edited by Nynox

Is it possible to run the numbers running ion cannons, or are ion effects too difficult to properly value? I keep wanting board control to be a thing, but I never seem to see it at the top levels.

Is it possible to run the numbers running ion cannons, or are ion effects too difficult to properly value? I keep wanting board control to be a thing, but I never seem to see it at the top levels.

I can do that later. I have been giving the Ion effect an additional value of 3, with results that seem to match reality for the Y-wings and HWKs.

Would Sirissu impact their viability?

Will also be interesting to see the PS5 generics, especially with a rumored EPT slot. I'd have to assume they'll come in at 17 points based on the precedent set by the Black Squadron Pilot.

Would Sirissu impact their viability?

Will also be interesting to see the PS5 generics, especially with a rumored EPT slot. I'd have to assume they'll come in at 17 points based on the precedent set by the Black Squadron Pilot.

Yeah, I have durabilities calculated with 1 reroll since Scum Boba was spoiled, so I'll plug that in. I have to finish taking a closer look at 4 M3-As, 3 with HLC and Serissu. The overall squad jousting value isn't horrible because it fills out the points well. Of course the same can be said about 8 TIEs or BXXZZZ, but they lose the positional game.

Updated with Ion Cannon and 1 defensive reroll numbers. For Ion, I consider the effect to be worth 3 points, so the PS1 effective cost is essentially 3 points less.

TL;DR: If you want Ion control in the 19 point range, stretch to 23 points for a PS2 Y-wing + Ion + BTL-A4 unless you REALLY want the range 3 extension from the cannon.

Cost | | PS1 Jousting Efficiency | req
Ship name actual|predict| PS1 | JV | std | range | eff
PS2 M3-A 14 | ???? | 13.4 | 12.2 | 90.8% | 90.7% - 90.9% | 128.6%
Ashera 1 18 | ???? | 14.1 | 12.2 | 86.7% | 86.6% - 86.8% | 203%
Serissu 3 20 | ???? | 12.8 | 12.2 | 95.7% | 95.6% - 95.8% | 245.7%
PS2 + Ion 3 19 | ???? | 15.4 | 11.7 | 76.1% | 73.7% - 78.1% | 242.1%
PS2 + Ion 3 + Hull 22 | ???? | 18.2 | 13.3 | 72.9% | 70.6% - 74.9% | 249.7%
PS2 + Mangler 20 | ???? | 19.2 | 15.8 | 82% | 81% - 83% | 154.4%
PS2 + Mangler + Hull 23 | ???? | 22.1 | 17.9 | 81.2% | 80.1% - 82.2% | 157.2%
PS2 + HLC 23 | ???? | 22.1 | 19.6 | 88.9% | 86.5% - 91% | 133.3%
PS2 + HLC + Hull 26 | ???? | 25 | 22.4 | 89.6% | 87.1% - 91.8% | 131.4%
PS2 + HLC + Serissu 23 | ???? | 22.1 | 22.8 | 103.4% | 100% - 106.8% | 101.5%
PS2 + HLC + Serissu + Hull 26 | ???? | 25 | 26 | 104.3% | 100.8% - 107.8% | 99.8%
Ion effect: valued at additional 3 points
Mangler: not considering the effect of a free hit to crit.
HLC: assumes always has an HLC shot
PS2 + HLC + Serissu: assumes always gets 1 defensive reroll

So my feeling was right. The X-Wings are overcosted. I want my X-Wing Refit! The game is called X-Wing Miniatures Game and you can`t build a decent swarm without going to epic 150 point... :D

So my feeling was right. The X-Wings are overcosted. I want my X-Wing Refit! The game is called X-Wing Miniatures Game and you can`t build a decent swarm without going to epic 150 point... :D

A free Hull Upgrade on X-wings does the trick, although Wedge and Biggs should have it cost an extra point to be equivalently balanced. The generics would still be a hair less effective than the named pilots, but they would be within the realm of being competitive. Stock, they simply have too much of an uphill climb to overcome right now, with no tools to help them do it.

See here:

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/122473-house-rules-technical-balance-fixes-for-casual-play/

Edited by MajorJuggler

MajorJuggler, thank you for the time you've put into this! I really like looking at ships objectively rather than subjectively.

I have two questions for you:

1) Is Tarn Mison w/ R7 points efficient?

2) Am I mistaken when I thought you said overall hull is better than stealth device (I thought you said that in a NS podcast). In the TC Aces league, everyone so far has used stealth with Soontir, and I wanted to know if you agree.