I have poked around the forums a bit and searched as much as the search tool would aid me to get a basic question answered but I am still a bit unsure of the answer, so I thought I would try my own post. If this has been addressed elsewhere, please point me in the right direction and I will go from there. I have read this forum's most-linked blogs (e.g. deck building 101) and a number of other blogs as well as forum posts, but the game is advanced enough now that most posts are focused on the nuances of deck building and tweaking rather than providing the kind of broad answer I am looking for.

Here's the question: just how many total cards should I own to play with a reasonable belief that I can build a deck that will handle the scenario? By handle, I mean 'provide at least a reasonable chance of victory, assuming solid play and a little luck'.

I was pretty heavily invested in Magic but finally gave it up. When the LCG format appeared, I was hesitant, but dived in a few months ago with the LotR Core Set. I have since purchased an expansion (Voice of Isengard) and an Adventure Pack (Trouble in Tharbad), but still find most of the scenarios unwinnable with the cards at my disposal. I am of course new to deck building in this game, but not new to deck building in general and feel I have a firm grasp of the core strategies needed to be successful in this format. My games are always 2 player 50-card decks, if any of this helps.

So, what is the proper next step here? Am I just too green in my deck building skills or am in a no-win situation until I shell out for more (and better) cards?

Thanks for the help!

If I were you, I would start buying in order. Its not like Magic, because here the designers have to design the quests in a wway that they are hard for players that have all the cards and so the powerdecks. So each quest has to be really hard for the most powerfull decks available until release. So Trouble in Tharbad has to deal with 3 cycles, 2 other AP and three DEs full if cards, while for example The Hunt for Gollum only has the cards in that pack and the Core Set to 'beat'.

So, when buying in order, the difficulty of the quests are 'up to date' to your cardpool.

My advice would be to buy the Shadows of Mirkwood cycle first and go from there.

Also the New Player Buying Guide over at talesfromthecards.wordpress.com can help a lot. I don't have a link now, but if you go to that site it is on the left side.

Generally, the later expansions are more difficult than the earlier ones because more player cards were available for later quests to counter. So I would suggest buying a few packs from one of the earlier cycles to build up your collection and get a few beatable quests.

Agreed. Buy them in order. But if you want to have really good decks from the start, pick up two copies of the core set. Every other pack, you only need one copy.

Thanks for the advice - I was coming to the same conclusion myself after pouring through all of my cards again and comapring the "best" of what I had against the later quests.

I really appreciate the advice!

Another option would be to build a deck using online deckbuilder (cardgamedb (http://www.cardgamedb.com/index.php/thelordoftherings/the-lord-of-the-rings-deckbuilder) oder Der Deckbauer (http://deckbauer.telfador.net/) and look up which expensions you need to build your decks.
Mostly I would agree with buying the adventure packs "in order" but I know thats a heavy money investment, which will pay off because LoTR is a great LCG but if you want to start playing the new quests you could very well skip some adventure packs or DE such as the Hobbit Boxes for non dwarf decks.

There was a bit of a problem with Heirs of Numenor bumping up the difficulty significantly, and I might have agreed with "go ahead and buy lots," but that was a brief period. The voice of isengard and ring maker cycle have felt very fair and creative. My advice is to get the most interesting deluxe expansion to go with your core, and just go for that cycle. Every cycle is typically designed assuming you only have a core set and the relevant deluxe expansion and adventure packs for that cycle.

So yeah, as your card pool expands from the ring maker cycle, you may find you have everything you need. I've recently made a point of only using cards from the current cycle, and it's great. Just spend money on what is fun, and you picked a great cycle during which to jump in.

http://talesfromthecards.wordpress.com/2013/09/13/new-player-buying-guide/ when I was first getting into the game, this helped me a tun. He reviews each set and, at the end, gives you sets you should buy depending upon what faction (dwarf, elf, men...) you want to go into. My personal collection also depends upon what great deals I can find on amazon and ebay.