I think this power creep is designed to sell huge ships. I don't believe the tempest was 4 points overcosted no matter what some poor model says.

Interesting. Tell me more about that. If you have a better model than MJ, then I think we can all learn many things from you.

That was sorry choice of wording on my part. My model shows 2 points will bring it in line with a rookie but 4 makes it one of the better statline ships. Look at how much everyone is salivating over this change. I guess if you have to pay an additional $100, the thing better be great.

FYI, I'm not sure what model you are using. The approach here requires, at a minimum, robust knowledge of differential equations and probability calculations (binomial distribution as a simple example). See this post for background. Since you commented that this is a poor model, I can only conclude that either a) You would be comfortable teaching the above fundamentals to an upper level undergraduate class, and have analyzed my approach and found it lacking, or, b) You don't know what you don't know.

You need to drop it now.

I think this power creep is designed to sell huge ships. I don't believe the tempest was 4 points overcosted no matter what some poor model says.

Interesting. Tell me more about that. If you have a better model than MJ, then I think we can all learn many things from you.

That was sorry choice of wording on my part. My model shows 2 points will bring it in line with a rookie but 4 makes it one of the better statline ships. Look at how much everyone is salivating over this change. I guess if you have to pay an additional $100, the thing better be great.

FYI, I'm not sure what model you are using. The approach here requires, at a minimum, robust knowledge of differential equations and probability calculations (binomial distribution as a simple example). See this post for background. Since you commented that this is a poor model, I can only conclude that either a) You would be comfortable teaching the above fundamentals to an upper level undergraduate class, and have analyzed my approach and found it lacking, or, b) You don't know what you don't know.

You know that mic you use for podcasting?

You need to drop it now.

Incidentally we recorded last night.

We need to have an emergency recording session to now talk about this and sneak it into the next podcast!

I think this power creep is designed to sell huge ships. I don't believe the tempest was 4 points overcosted no matter what some poor model says.

Interesting. Tell me more about that. If you have a better model than MJ, then I think we can all learn many things from you.

That was sorry choice of wording on my part. My model shows 2 points will bring it in line with a rookie but 4 makes it one of the better statline ships. Look at how much everyone is salivating over this change. I guess if you have to pay an additional $100, the thing better be great.

FYI, I'm not sure what model you are using. The approach here requires, at a minimum, robust knowledge of differential equations and probability calculations (binomial distribution as a simple example). See this post for background. Since you commented that this is a poor model, I can only conclude that either a) You would be comfortable teaching the above fundamentals to an upper level undergraduate class, and have analyzed my approach and found it lacking, or, b) You don't know what you don't know.

You know that mic you use for podcasting?

You need to drop it now.

I know that some people make a living using methods such as least squares, the Laplace rule of succession, or matrix systems of equations to try and predict outcomes, but that doesn't make them right. I apologize for being offensive but you're foolish if you think there exists only one around here that's accomplished in mathematics.

I know that some people make a living using methods such as least squares, the Laplace rule of succession, or matrix systems of equations to try and predict outcomes, but that doesn't make them right. I apologize for being offensive but you're foolish if you think there exists only one around here that's accomplished in mathematics.

I agree to all of that! Do you have a description anywhere of how your model works? There are a few secondary affects that I'm not considering, that would be good to bounce ideas off of people at some point.

Unrelated, I'm done scripting updates for the new pilot and the various interactions with new cards. I'll get some numbers in my other thread shortly.

I think this power creep is designed to sell huge ships. I don't believe the tempest was 4 points overcosted no matter what some poor model says.

Interesting. Tell me more about that. If you have a better model than MJ, then I think we can all learn many things from you.

That was sorry choice of wording on my part. My model shows 2 points will bring it in line with a rookie but 4 makes it one of the better statline ships. Look at how much everyone is salivating over this change. I guess if you have to pay an additional $100, the thing better be great.

FYI, I'm not sure what model you are using. The approach here requires, at a minimum, robust knowledge of differential equations and probability calculations (binomial distribution as a simple example). See this post for background. Since you commented that this is a poor model, I can only conclude that either a) You would be comfortable teaching the above fundamentals to an upper level undergraduate class, and have analyzed my approach and found it lacking, or, b) You don't know what you don't know.

You know that mic you use for podcasting?

You need to drop it now.

I know that some people make a living using methods such as least squares, the Laplace rule of succession, or matrix systems of equations to try and predict outcomes, but that doesn't make them right. I apologize for being offensive but you're foolish if you think there exists only one around here that's accomplished in mathematics.

Now having said that I was never a fan of mathwing but his numbers have pretty much been spot on from my play experience when ships joust. I don't really care if his figures are a little out what I get from them is a solid number of what I can expect a ship to be able to do. This goes a long way and is more than enough when I'm designing a squad for what I want it to achieve

I know that some people make a living using methods such as least squares, the Laplace rule of succession, or matrix systems of equations to try and predict outcomes, but that doesn't make them right. I apologize for being offensive but you're foolish if you think there exists only one around here that's accomplished in mathematics.

In your earlier post, you discussed how the Advanced was only 2 points off compared to a Rookie X-Wing. However, even that comparison doesn't really hold weight anymore. As seen elsewhere, the Rookie X-Wing is almost irrelevant in the game now. At 9 points over a Bandit Squadron Pilot, it's a ship that almost rarely never makes it out on the tables anymore outside of players just starting out or engaging in more casual play. It doesn't have enough maneuverability or defense dice to avoid attacks, while also not having enough durability to survive against focused fire in a world where almost every attacking ship is throwing three or four dice.

Even within the Imperial fleet, the Advanced has largely been ignored in favor of other ships since Wave 2 due to its perceived inefficiencies and low damage output compared to even regular TIE fighters. The game has taken a very heavy shift in favor of more offense, and ships that cost more than 20 points while rolling two attack dice had no role to play in that fleet. These new modifications should give the Advanced that damage output while placing limitations on it (requires target lock action for opening volley, can only use against target-locked opponents, cannot use target-lock on dice attacks).

It also, in a roundabout way, serves as a buff for things like Wes Jansen and the Expert Handling upgrade, which can strip the Advanced of some of its damage dealing ability by removing target locks.

I have posted my analysis here:

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/128417-mathwing-comprehensive-ship-jousting-values-and-more/page-3#entry1373731

Edit:

Also, spoiler alert. full results later, but I'll leave this as a teaser:

Vader + title + Advanced TC is ~118% jousting efficiency.

Can you math-wing up the probability that he'll show up soon? I'm kicking myself waiting over here

I think this power creep is designed to sell huge ships. I don't believe the tempest was 4 points overcosted no matter what some poor model says.

I don't have a background in math. I can do some basic statistics, but when I read a poli-sci paper, I have to trust that the peer review people checked the actual numbers, and that nothing got fudged too badly. (There's actually a scandal here with some major policy implications, but that's a whole other topic)

As I alluded to above, my education is in Political Science. I minored in religion and history. So while I'm not qualified to speak to the "is this power creep" aspect of this thread, I am rather well qualified to tell you that you're not going to get anywhere with your line of commentary. Here's why:

You are setting yourself against someone well respected in our community. He may be right, he may be wrong, but his models have done a good job giving us a baseline for comparison. If yours can do a better job, I think we'd all like to see a collaboration. You apologized for the poor word choice, but you still seem needlessly aggressive. Maybe the dude's model has actually done something personal to you. I dunno. But newcomers don't get anywhere attacking respected members of a community without a whole lot of backing up of claims.

The other thing: you seem upset by FF's pricing of the Raider. Well, that's a fair topic for debate. But coming into a thread where people are excitedly talking over the possibilities and being an aggressive downer is the exact opposite of the way to win friends and influence people.

Frankly, I think $100 is about right for an Imperial Huge ship + small fighter. But like I said: that's a fair question. Just maybe not on this thread.