just wondering did he win with the same lists both times?

I've reversed my stance on dice blaming. Last night, I had five solid attacks on Echo. Four times, I had either two hits against two green dice. Two times, three hits against four green dice. Once, five dice against four (the dice rolled one hit).

I scored ONE damage.

None of my other ships could score hits against the rest of his fleet, either. It was a massacre.

Assuming no focus since it's easier to carry between attacks, that's a ~~6.4% chance of happening (*very* approximate). 1 in 20 games?

Never mind that, I still say the same: either learn from a loss, or if it's a case of *really* bad dice (such as the one you described), discount it as an outliner and move on.

Or good day ma'am. I don't want to assume gender from a screen handle.

lol.

Okay, so there is a minor caveat to my article. And the following story from worlds exemplifies it.

I played a guy named Bronson. He was a good dude. I beat the snot out of him and I can fairly say that it was not because I was eons better than him; he rolled AWFUL. Like, statistically improbably, epically awful. It was hard to believe.

After the match, we were hanging out and he was asking what he should do to adjust his build and I said, "if you're adjusting based on our game, don't. Forget that game ever happened."

While the purpose of my article is to show that dice even out over time, and you can learn things from every loss, sometimes the lesson is simply that you had a statistically improbable event. If you have 2 of those in a row, I'm going to say that's VERY unlikely. If you have 3, I'll tell you that you're making mistakes in your play that are causing you to be in bad positions.

But Bronson, man, you had one of those games.

Keep fighting, man.

I would agree with your article except for one thing....

I have an opponent who my dice REALLY like. The little brats won't hit or evade against him.

the point remains; if you blame dice, reevaluate. If you reevaluate and you still blame dice; okay. Play again. If you blame dice again; don't blame dice.

I wonder if Paul stayed out all night partying after the big win. Strippers... Tequila... Complimentary buffet. God, it must be great to be the best. I need to up my game.

Probably more like Motel 6 and Continental Breakfast in the morning.

But seriously. I know nothing about Paul's lifestyle. Maybe he is a swinger.

I think the importance of a statistical, long view of your games is the most pertinent part of appreciating the role dice play in this game.

I find these discussions often morph into a phantasm of what the actual issue is - people often seem to argue in black and white terms about whether or not dice are a factor in any given game. Which they plainly are, no real discussion required.

But over the long haul, the good player will take account of the outliers and not drastically change his or her approach based on anomalous instances.

The freakish dice rolls do occur: cloaked, range three phantoms behind asteroids do occasionally get one shotted. Interceptors sometimes fly right into the teeth of an opponents attack, suffer no damage and manage to destroy an opponebts ship before gracefully darting out the next round. It happens, its worthy of discussion and it's what generates a very important element in this game: risk.

But I hear it said so often that people are "dice unlucky" that I'm forced to conclude many on here actually believe they consistently don't roll as well as someone else. Surely we don't actually believe this?

Ever since I learned about confirmation bias, I see it everywhere

Ever since I learned about confirmation bias, I see it everywhere

I see what you did there.

I was at my local FLGS a week back and a game was going on next to me in which one player was getting rocker by another. All I kept hearing were complaints about his dice and his opponent's luck. To add to my dismay the guy's kid was also playing nearby and I just couldn't help but think about the example this guy was setting.

If I get a nail in my tire, I don't blame the nail or the tire. I make a note of the route I took and try to be more careful.

the point remains; if you blame dice, reevaluate. If you reevaluate and you still blame dice; okay. Play again. If you blame dice again; don't blame dice.

Or just record the dice results. I did that for a year playing FoW. My opponent and I got a perfect spread of rolls. Him 4, 5, 6 and me 1, 2, 3. Almost every roll, every week, for a year. Still won more than 50% of the time though.

Paul Heaver winning worlds just goes to show you that the Macho man was right, the cream rises to the top OH YEAH

Paul Heaver winning worlds just goes to show you that the Macho man was right, the cream rises to the top OH YEAH

I really hope you're referring to milk.

I was at my local FLGS a week back and a game was going on next to me in which one player was getting rocker by another. All I kept hearing were complaints about his dice and his opponent's luck. To add to my dismay the guy's kid was also playing nearby and I just couldn't help but think about the example this guy was setting.

Yeah, if you're getting worked up by bad dice, then you're playing it wrong. For me, if I get bedeviled by bad dice (it happens to all of us on occasion), it's actually great to outsource the blame for the loss on the dice. It takes the load off your ability.

I'd say there's only two reasons to get upset at the dice:

1. It's a very high-stakes game, and you're invested.
2. You're actually being confronted with your own inability, and the dice are an easy scapegoat.

If your reason is #1... dude, it's just a game. Settle down. If your reason is #2... learn from your actual mistakes and get beyond your denial.

Honestly, people who get worked up are no fun to play with. I go to play the game with pleasant people and have fun. Winning feels good, but losing in a fun game is much nicer than winning in a game against a jerk who'd I'd rather not spend time with.

(Well, maybe not always. Sometimes it's great to give a jerk a beatin'.)

Imagine for a moment that the best in the world is so much better than everyone else that he was able to take 5 Rebel Operatives + blaster turret and still win.

I don't prefer that world to this one. In this world a great player built a great list and flew it exceptionally well.

As an interesting exercise, I'd kind of like to see the top 2 players swap lists. More than just being a matter of "dice" and "list building", there's also a playstyle component. I'd be curious to see how great players deal with good lists that don't match their personal style.

From reading tourney reports it sounds like part of Paul Heavers success is his opponents fearing him. He isn't an intimidating guy in general and even by his set-up and the way he organizes his stuff, but knowing he is great at the game and is the world champ puts up a bit of pressure to the point where even his semi-final opponent stated "his heart wasn't in it" in his tourney report.

I went to worlds and there was a certain intimidation factor when I played against someone who had all official acrylic tokens or templates and/or even would start talking about how high they finished at certain regional events etc.. as opposed to playing someone that looks like a newer player or has their stuff all disorganized. Playing against Paul has to get in the heads of players to some degree and plays into how he was able to repeat.

And let’s not discount how huge match-ups are! Paul’s build was strong in general and against most of the more popular builds, but playing against a Wedge would have ruined Paul’s day. Imagine Richard Hsu’s squad going against Paul. We most likely would not have had a repeat champ.

let me be clear here. when i said "my heart wasn't in it" i was referring to the fact that because of the way r2d2 crew matched against our squads (and having playtested this match already back home with paul) i knew that mathematically and realistically there was virtually no chance of winning the game. i am not intimidated by paul, he is a friend, we roomed together, and while he is an amazing player i don't despair playing him. i was bummed because i was already virtually lost because of the squad matchup, not the player. i can, and have, beaten paul (even without losing a ship). so it was a lot more the fatigue of being sick and the bummer of knowing my ride to the top was over without me being able to even have a chance to outplay my opponent in our match, just hope to survive for an hour while we flew in a circle and it was boring and depressing. the odds of paul almost boosting off the table two games in a row is pretty low

I wonder if Paul stayed out all night partying after the big win. Strippers... Tequila... Complimentary buffet. God, it must be great to be the best. I need to up my game.

Probably more like Motel 6 and Continental Breakfast in the morning.

But seriously. I know nothing about Paul's lifestyle. Maybe he is a swinger.

actually we had steak dinner at applebees (paul had fish) with a handful of people (ron, jimbo and his gf, richard hsu) and then crashed early since we had early flights....maybe