I guess for me intuition is simply 'crunching the numbers' on what the possible outcomes of each decision are, then choosing the most beneficial one based on available information.
There's always that risk of slipping into 'Vizzini's Battle of Wits' and trying to select a sub-optimal move in order to throw off your opponent, but generally speaking there is a comfortable middle ground somewhere between the two that ends up being your optimal move. In the grand scheme of things you can always commit a single ship to a sub-optimal maneuver in order to throw off your opponent, while maintaining the most optimal maneuvers with the rest of your ships. For example, I have a group of four Ties, Han is approaching them to their left. I move one Tie to be within the footprint of Han's 4 Straight and with the rest I Turn short, Now; if Han has selected a straight maneuver, no matter what speed it is, he either bumps or has no opportunity to boost and I've set up shots with my remaining three Ties and put them into an optimal position for the next turn.