My god, its another discussion on meta. Hear me out though. As far as I can tell from looking at reports and my own local games, three types of lists are dominating. A fat falcon and filler, a phantom with filler, and swarm (either rebel or imperial). Curious to hear what people think will have the most luck or see the most of at worlds? Based off the inherent rock paper scissor angle (swarm beats falcon beats phantom beats swarm.) What is gonna have the edge.

Just when I thought I was out ... they just pull me back in ...

Not ... this ... again.

Please.

My sanity thanks you.

I believe they are taking the top 12 or 8 both days and I would say all but maybe 2 or 3 will be some form of swarm,fat falcon, and phantom. Those 3 builds have been proven again and again to work so you'll see alot of them.

Being the trendsetter that you are, I'm surprised you haven't switched to Arvel and making him be the powerhouse he was meant to be.

**** it Hothie, I'm a doctor, not a magician!

firstly, where can we get the most recent stats anyway?

If you say it enough you'll think it,

if you think it enough you'll believe it,

if you believe it enough you'll do it.

So don't worry too much about what the internet says. Run what you like to fly, and what you're comfortable flying.

For what it's worth, I live near the FFG Event Center, and we've had at least one local tournament a week. There's been a wide variety of winning squadrons (especially since Rebel Aces came out), and every ship type has placed in the top 4 multiple times.

And I agree with that in a general principle but my thinking is at worlds, people are gonna run tried and true standard. Now I could be drastically wrong but I just wanted to hear what people thought the breakdown was going to be. I hear nationals was like 60% falcons, but because a phantom won, will we see more of those or less. I know what I am running I just don't like just talking about with local people because local metas are more contained. I wanted to hear what other people are expecting. Maybe you are just fighting Tie advanced all day long and that's what you are building to take down. who knows. could be anything... It could even be a boat. you know how much we've wanted one of those.

What's the "meta" mean? I'm much more interested in the proto.

What's the "meta" mean? I'm much more interested in the proto.

It simply means "what's popular".

This thread again, please no

I think the Phantom with a swarm will be good. It can handle most match ups and does not have a very bad (just a disadvantage) to some of the popular lists.
But I would watch for some sleeper hitters, like 4/5 ship rebel lists with incredible utility.

I think Rebel Aces has shaken things up a lot and I wouldn't be surprised to see Roark shine.

It is Roark's moment but it's funny how little he's talked about right now.

Just when I thought I was out ... they just pull me back in ...

Not ... this ... again.

Please.

My sanity thanks you.

Cuthulu calls to you my fiend mwahhahahahha

I believe they are taking the top 12 or 8 both days and I would say all but maybe 2 or 3 will be some form of swarm,fat falcon, and phantom. Those 3 builds have been proven again and again to work so you'll see alot of them.

Top 16 both days according to the article.

I imagine you're not to far off as to what will place in the top 16 but I doubt a Falcon can win first place no matter how many show up, best it'll do is make life hard for phantoms.

Phantom or swarm might win but I wouldn't be surprised to see something else take home the trophy.

Bottom line though, if you field one of those three lists your opponents will be ready for you.

Excellent! I'd been wondering where this line of threads had been. The forum has been rather dull of late.

I do imagine (and hope) that Rebel Aces will shake up the meta somewhat. Of course, I have no insight into what the top players will do with rebel aces. I'm nowhere near that level of competence.

Well, the OP was right. Of the Top 32, there are just 7 non archtypical lists of the 3 he describes

1. Richard Hsu (Flight 1, rank #4): Wedge + DTF + R2D2; Cracken + VI; Biggs; Rookie
2. Jonathan Gomes (Flight 1, rank #13): 3x Blue + E2 + Tactician; Gold + Ion Turret + R3-A2
3. Nathan Eide (Flight 2, rank #8): Corran + R2D2 + FCS + PTL + Shield Upgrade; Biggs + Hull Upgrade; 2x Bandit
4. William Wadden (Flight 2, rank #4): 4x Blue; Bandit
5. Lyle Hayhurst (Flight 2, rank #5): 2x Blue + FCS; Cracken + Swarm Tactics; Roark + Chewbacca + Moldy Crow + Blaster Turret
6. Scott Williams (Flight 1, rank # 8): 3x Blue + E2 + Tactician; Gold + Ion Turret + R3-A2
7. Patrick McDonald (Flight 1, rank #10): 3x Blue + Advanced Sensors; 2x Bandit

For the rest, we've got 12 Han/Chewies, 7 phantom lists, and 6 swarms.

It'll be interesting to see what MJ's analysis says about the tendencies of each of these list types to beat the other list types. Can he finally disprove the Rock<Paper<Scissors hypothesis?

Also, was there just as much, less, or greater diversity of lists in those who were eliminated in Flights 1 and 2?

Suppose it depends on Wave 6 hitting for the new meta before the next competitive season starts.

Imperial 'Fat Hans' may start showing up with Decimators paired with Defenders or Phantoms (probably Phantoms), then theres the Scum and Villainy lists themselves.

Yup S&V should shake up the meta significantly - can't wait to find out how!

It'll be interesting to see what MJ's analysis says about the tendencies of each of these list types to beat the other list types. Can he finally disprove the Rock<Paper<Scissors hypothesis?

I'll have to go look at every individual matchup during Swiss and comparing archetypes and MoV, which I plan on doing (via scripts). It won't be for a little while though....

It'll be interesting to see what MJ's analysis says about the tendencies of each of these list types to beat the other list types. Can he finally disprove the Rock<Paper<Scissors hypothesis?

I'll have to go look at every individual matchup during Swiss and comparing archetypes and MoV, which I plan on doing (via scripts). It won't be for a little while though....

Cool.

I'm kind of curious how you will categorize the lists. I know you had a certain method in the Nationals/Regionals threads, but then didn't have the competitive data to go along with it. Because this will be a more sophisticated analysis, it's probably worthwhile to have a more sophisticated approach to the typology.

For my part, I prefer broader categories, but in the Top 8 Build Spread at Worlds thread, Sunny Ravencourt had the following point:

See, now I disagree with this. I was running Whisper VI ACD Gunner FCS, Soontir PTL, and OMG Vader, and the other "Whisper" list is Whisper with Rebel Captive and a howl miniswarm.

I'm not entirely sure it's fair to lump both of those in a "whisper" category and say that it's the same. Those are radically different tactical games. It's not quite the same as two swarms with howl, one with PTL and the other with Swarm Tactics.

Yes, there are certain ships that seem to fare better over the course of 2 days, but I take umbrage with the lumping of the two whisper top 8 lists as the same.

I do agree with him that this is important, but how do you create a typology based on this notion? If we're going to falsify the Rock<Paper<Scissors theory, then it's rather cheap to do so by definitional gerrymandering.

It'll be interesting to see what MJ's analysis says about the tendencies of each of these list types to beat the other list types. Can he finally disprove the Rock<Paper<Scissors hypothesis?

I'll have to go look at every individual matchup during Swiss and comparing archetypes and MoV, which I plan on doing (via scripts). It won't be for a little while though....

I wonder if some kind if some kind of survivor analysis is not appropriate for this type of thing. For example, the proportion of Falcon lists eliminated as a function of round. Squads are deemed eliminated when they have their 2nd or 3rd loss in Swiss, or 1st loss in single elims. It doesn't do a great job with low frequency lists as the proportions will be wonky, but it should work for high frequency lists and most importantly allows for comparisons across different archetypes by comparing the normalised rate at which they are eliminated. It gets rid of the pesky everyone is playing falcons effect.

Yup. Artoo vs Gunner creates a wide variation in a Falcon's strengths and weaknesses.

I think a lot of people will want to play scum when it first comes out, but not sure if it will have a big effect on the meta.

The reason being...as of now they have ZERO large ships with 360 arcs like the rebels and imperials do. They also don't seem to have a ship that will be as big as game changer as the phantom was.

Only thing they can do is swarms, so they'd have to have a very unique and powerful swarm to really shake up the meta I think.