I started playing the Lord of the Rings LCG in March 2014, gradually working my way up through Passage Through Mirkwood and Journey Down the Anduin… playing dozens if not scores of games involving those two quests (straight solo, 2-handed, and 2-player) over the spring and summer… until I was finally ready to face Escape from Dol Guldur.
I have also been a little OCD about keeping my game scores and deck combos in a detailed spreadsheet… just to track my progress with various quests, as well as the evolution of my decks over time.
My goal from the outset has been to defeat each scenario using only the player cards available when the scenario/adventure pack was first released.
Between June 26 and September 29, 2014, I played Escape from Dol Guldur 80 times!!! Taking all of those games combined (easy mode and standard mode, 50-card decks and decks with fewer cards, straight solo and 2-handed, single Core vs. Core x3), I managed to defeat the scenario 9 times out of 80 (11.25% of the time)… or 8 times out of 80 (10%) if you consider the one start-of-game prisoner swap that I did in one two-handed quest to render that victory invalid.
12 of the 80 games played were straight solo games that deviated from the tournament legal 50+ card decks (i.e., using between 40 and 44 card decks), all but one using cards from a single Core set (i.e., no proxying additional copies of cards). I made 5 attempts (3 in standard mode, 2 in easy mode), with this deck ( http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/1108855/back-basics-killer-deck-using-only-cards-single-co ), with 0% success. I also tried another 7 non-standard decks of my own creation (6 with cards from only one Core set, one from 3xCore), and all failed in "Easy" mode.
I played a total of 13 games in "Easy" mode, and achieved only a single victory over that run (i.e., 7.69% success ratio). I played 7 games straight solo in Easy mode with 50-card decks from a single Core set only, and won only 1 of those games (14.29% success ratio). The "victorious deck" was only used twice in "Easy" mode, so that particular deck had a 50% success ratio… which probably would have dropped had I played more games with it.
Stats for games played in Standard mode, straight solo, with tournament-legal 50-card Core only decks are as follows:
. 5 games using cards from a single Core set only: 0 victories
. 42 games using cards from Core x3 only: 2 victories = 4.76% success ratio.
Of the above 42 games, 29 were played with Eowyn/Aragorn/Legolas as heroes, who achieved victory only once (success ratio of 3.45%; their one victory came on their 12th attempt -- if I had stopped using that deck there, its success ratio would have been 8.33%). Legolas was the prisoner in the game where victory occurred. Very minor adjustments to the deck composition were made only once during those 29 games. The remaining 13 games were played with Eowyn, Aragorn and Denethor as heroes, who achieved victory on their 13th attempt (7.69% success ratio). Denethor was the prisoner in the game where victory occurred. Side note: That deck had an epic defeat on its 12th attempt -- having 6 tokens on stage 3 of the quest when Under the Shadow was revealed and bumped my threat up from 46 to 49… and then 50 at the end of the refresh phase in round 16. I was so upset to have had imminent victory snatched from me so cruelly at the very last second. I had a few other epic games and close calls… but the majority were prompt, crushing defeats.
I also played a total of 13 games two-handed, all using the cards available in a single Core set only. 6 of those 13 games ended in victory (46.15%)… or 5 (38.46%), if you deem my beginning of game prisoner swap in one of those games to be invalid. 4 of the games were played with Theodred/Thalin/Legolas as heroes on one side, and Eowyn/Beravor/Denethor on the other… they achieved victory 3/4 times (2/4 if you discount the prisoner swap mentioned previously)… either way, victory rate was no less than 50%. Legolas was prisoner in all victories. The other victorious team featured Beravor/Denethor/Legolas on one side, and Aragorn/Theodred/Eowyn on the other… they won 3 of their 5 "matches" (60%). Legolas was prisoner 3 times, Theodred once, and Beravor once (both defeats had Legolas as prisoner).
So, based on my experience… if you achieve victory between 5% and 10% of the time, playing straight solo with Core set (x3) cards only… be happy!!! And all of my victories required a considerable amount of luck. If you are playing with Core set x1… it will probably be a little bit more difficult, but might be achievable… with a little more luck! I don't have the stomach to put myself through that.
On the other hand, victory should be achievable closer to 50% of the time in 2-handed or 2-player mode using 50 card decks from a single Core set… if you have the right hero combos (and hopefully Eowyn doesn't end up prisoner!).
In the next posts (when time permits), the "victorious" decks detailed.
Edited by TwiceBornh