Chess Vs. The Rigged Slot Machine: The Idiocy of Fat Han

By Seanamal, in X-Wing

What specifically does the inclusion of Threepio do that causes this issue, that has not been caused by the mere introduction of the Falcon itself?

Agreed, I can't see why people insist on blaming everything on goldenrod... Sure he makes the falcon more tanky, but honestly best case is he adds one evade to a roll, that means he at best saves you 1 damage per round.

I think the Z-95 is at much to "blame" as anything else, because before them you couldn't put a 60 point Falcon on the table, without running a 2 ship list.

The "it destroys the theme of the game" arguments are really getting old.

Agree again, because the theme is Star Wars fighter combat, which always had as part of it turrets. If anything a lack of turrets would make the game less like Star Wars. Could you imagine this game making it to wave 4 without the Falcon?

Ok well that seems a bit better. Its a card i never use tbh so i've read the wording on it perhaps twice.

So just to make sure - you've been going on for pages and pages about how there's absolutely no balance problem with a card you've never read enough to even understand the function of?

So just to make sure - you've been going on for pages and pages about how there's absolutely no balance problem with a card you've never read enough to even understand the function of?

Welcome to the internet... we've been expecting you.

Also:

Agreed, I can't see why people insist on blaming everything on goldenrod... Sure he makes the falcon more tanky, but honestly best case is he adds one evade to a roll, that means he at best saves you 1 damage per round...

IKR?

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I think it's a testament to the lack of power creep and quality of balancing that a Wave 2 ship is doing so well, with or without C-3PO.

I think it's a testament to the lack of power creep and quality of balancing that a Wave 2 ship is doing so well, with or without C-3PO.

Either that or we've just seen our first real example or perceived power creep with Wave 4, and people are turning en masse to an obvious counter as a method of insurance in competitive situations.

I think it's a testament to the lack of power creep and quality of balancing that a Wave 2 ship is doing so well, with or without C-3PO.

I'm not entirely sure this is really a conclusive statement. Creep can come in the ships themselves, or the upgrades. Especially given that we get several times more upgrades than we do ships, they seem a more natural place for it to arrive. It may also be a testament to the strength and utility of the Falcon in the first place.

I guess it comes down to this, Seanamal. What specifically does the inclusion of Threepio do that causes this issue, that has not been caused by the mere introduction of the Falcon itself?

Edit: Accidentally cut out a paragraph fixed!

OK. Let me preface this by saying I'm not the best at explaining mathwing but I'll do my best.

So the pair of threepio and MF title give Fat Han a guaranteed 2 evades a combat round. Now that may not seem like much but it dramatically increases it's survivability.

Now let's examine this with a hypothetical match up. For this game we will use 5 academy ties 60 pts vs Fat Han (Han Solo,c3p0 gunner, MF, engine upgrade 59 points)

Before you argue that this is a bad match up for reason xyz, the math holds true against other builds it's simply more apparent here.

These numbers are at range 2

So before defense dice a focused tie has about a 60% chance of generating 2 hit and a 35% chance of generating 1 and 5% of whiffing. So 5 focused ties should average about 8 hits before defense dice are involved.

So now the focused TIE vs falcon with defense dice BUT without 3p0 and MF has a 35% chance of generating 2 hits 45% chance of generating 1 and 20% chance of whiffing. So now they average 7 hits ( really it's closer to 6 but I'll pump it up for the naysayers.

Now you subtract the guaranteed evades and now they are gonna average 5 hits.

Of course this assumes optimal placement of the falcon for the ties so that they can all get a range 2 shot.

Han's consistent damage is going to average out to 2 hits a round or 1 dead tie every other round.

But as Ties die their damage output will drop and so less hits will get through after the 2nd round, and even less after the 4th. and They will probably have at least 1 ship without a viable shot on the falcon, which means even less dice.

And that 2 shot shield is never going to stop. So as long as Han can manage to consistently kill a ship every other round (which is likely) he will quickly begin to win the war of attrition.

That's the problem. That extra tier of damage mitigation takes it form being expensive but not overwhelming to powerhouse.

Edited by Seanamal

So as long as Han can manage to consistently kill a ship every other round (which is likely) he will quickly begin to win the war of attrition.

It takes 12 hits to kill a Falcon, that means in 2 turns you should do 10 damage to the Falcon, maybe 9 depending on how well Han shoots.

According to your math you should do 5 damage the first turn, and 4 damage on turn 2 and 3, that means the Falcon is dead with 4 Ties left.

I'm also not sure I buy 2 damage a turn from Han, math isn't my strong suit, but Han is attacking without a Focus or TL, so the only thing he has going is his own ability which is not as good as a TL.

Edited by VanorDM

In that scenario Seanamal, Engine upgrade is more helpful that evade most of the time. You can't measure the efficiency of Engine Upgrade, but the Swarm player will be forced to try to stop you from taking actions because he can't risk to only get to shoot half his ships, and because he also wants to be on range 1.

I actually had played that scenario a few times already playing whisper + 5 AP, and definitly engine upgrade was the most annoying to deal with. The times i had played the Fat Solo it has been the same, EU is what allows you to place yourself in favorable spots. C3PO is somewhat fine in my opinion. Yes, lategame the falcon is a beast and it limit match up tactics for your opponent, but is not unbeatable. The combination of 3 Z's blocking/bumping to stop you from shooting or getting actionless shots at the falcon, C3PO, evade for those times you can't arc dodge with EU, and EU, paired with very reliable shooting withouth the need of actions, is in my opinion what makes the list solid.

I guess it comes down to this, Seanamal. What specifically does the inclusion of Threepio do that causes this issue, that has not been caused by the mere introduction of the Falcon itself?

Edit: Accidentally cut out a paragraph fixed!

OK. Let me preface this by saying I'm not the best at explaining mathwing but I'll do my best.

So the pair of threepio and MF title give Fat Han a guaranteed 2 evades a combat round. Now that may not seem like much but it dramatically increases it's survivability.

Now let's examine this with a hypothetical match up. For this game we will use 5 academy ties 60 pts vs Fat Han (Han Solo,c3p0 gunner, MF, engine upgrade 59 points)

Before you argue that this is a bad match up for reason xyz, the math holds true against other builds it's simply more apparent here.

These numbers are at range 2

So before defense dice a focused tie has about a 60% chance of generating 2 hit and a 35% chance of generating 1 and 5% of whiffing. So 5 focused ties should average about 8 hits before defense dice are involved.

So now the focused TIE vs falcon with defense dice BUT without 3p0 and MF has a 35% chance of generating 2 hits 45% chance of generating 1 and 20% chance of whiffing. So now they average 7 hits ( really it's closer to 6 but I'll pump it up for the naysayers.

Now you subtract the guaranteed evades and now they are gonna average 5 hits.

Of course this assumes optimal placement of the falcon for the ties so that they can all get a range 2 shot.

Han's consistent damage is going to average out to 2 hits a round or 1 dead tie every other round.

But as Ties die their damage output will drop and so less hits will get through after the 2nd round, and even less after the 4th. and They will probably have at least 1 ship without a viable shot on the falcon, which means even less dice.

And that 2 shot shield is never going to stop. So as long as Han can manage to consistently kill a ship every other round (which is likely) he will quickly begin to win the war of attrition.

That's the problem. That extra tier of damage mitigation takes it form being expensive but not overwhelming to powerhouse.

I have a lot of problems with this. First, you're assuming that Han never gets blocked, which is incredibly easy with that many TIEs. Also, by evading the Falcon takes a rather large hit to damage output even with Han's rerolls. Also, in a real fight those TIEs would be closing to range 1 rather quickly.

Not to mention that a wounded TIE can move to block Han next turn, forcing him to choose another target.

The Falcon has many, many poor matchups even with C-3PO. It's the fault of the players if they don't want to do that in this Falcon-heavy meta. You're just seeing a lot of Falcons right now, 'cause no one has come up with a very reliable way to counter Phantoms.

Falcon popularity is going to go down very soon anyway, the YT-2400 and the Decimator are going to be the new hotness. I can't wait until those complainy threads start. :wacko:

First, you're assuming that Han never gets blocked, which is incredibly easy with that many TIEs. Also, in a real fight those TIEs would be closing to range 1 rather quickly.

For the sake of argument I was willing to accept everyone trying to stay at range 2.

But the below two points are quite good.

Also, by evading the Falcon takes a rather large hit to damage output even with Han's rerolls. Not to mention that a wounded TIE can move to block Han next turn, forcing him to choose another target.

Even if both players are trying to stay at range 2, there's no reason not to block with a wounded tie, rather then let it get blown up, either way it does the same amount of damage, but stops the Falcon from taking an action.

Edited by VanorDM

I have a lot of problems with this. First, you're assuming that Han never gets blocked, which is incredibly easy with that many TIEs. Also, by evading the Falcon takes a rather large hit to damage output even with Han's rerolls. Also, in a real fight those TIEs would be closing to range 1 rather quickly.

3p0 and mf mitigate 10 hits over 5 turns. Are you beginning to see te problem?

That's only partly true. The Falcon is going to mitigate more then 5 damage in 5 rounds even without 3-CPO. 3-CPO does not simply double the amount of evades the Falcon is going to get, only makes them a sure bet.

Blocking the Falcon and taking it's action, by a Tie with 1 hull left, is not a bad trade for the Imperials at all. It will likely do 0 damage either way, either because it's touching the Falcon or it's dead.

Plus, the Falcon is not going to survive 5 turns of focused fire by 5 Tie's, even based on your math, it will survive at most 3.

Edited by VanorDM

And the difference between that and if the Falcon player is rolling hot on defense? I have found that if your TIEs go on the defensive (aka Evade) to limit the damage Han does to 1 a turn, the Falcon begins to have some very serious problems.

Your damage output will be very low that way Sithborg. So for example, if you have 5 Ties, you are wasting 4 actions for just having one with slightly improved chances at evading (the one that gets shot), while the rest of your Ties will roll unmodified damage.

To be fair, I used that strategy with Interceptors and Backstabber with Krassis and a HLC providing the heavy punch.

Yeah, i had done that with a tanky Carnor actually at range 1, it works decently if you have the means to get the falcon in your sights with the rest of your list.

Edited by DreadStar

Plus, the Falcon is not going to survive 5 turns of focused fire by 5 Tie's, even based on your math, it will survive at most 3.

Except it's not going to be 5 rounds of 5 ties. It's gonna be 1 round of 5 2 rounds of 4 and 2 rounds of 3. Everyone keeps analyzing this as if the game is decided on the first round. You also keep assuming all 5 ties being able to get a shot on Han every round. Correction you are assuming all 5 can get a FOCUSED shot every round. That will never happen. Han goes the distance and keeps taking a pounding. My example was weighted to assume best case scenario for the ties on first round of combat. And I still don't see them winning.

My example was weighted to assume best case scenario for the ties on first round of combat. And I still don't see them winning.

Realistically it's going to take a Falcon using an Evade action every turn a minimum of 10 turns to shoot down 5 Academy TIEs.

Even with C3PO on board and diminishing returns for the Imperials, It's not going to survive that long. SImple as that.

Except it's not going to be 5 rounds of 5 ties. It's gonna be 1 round of 5 2 rounds of 4 and 2 rounds of 3.

If you somehow oneshot a TIE every turn and the TIEs make no attempt to block you or take defensive action.

8 ties and losing 1 per turn? Yay factorial problem!

The discussion is quite pointless from both sides. Most people is focusing in a perfect jousting scenario for both sides, when that's not playing at the strenghts of either side in that match up. The falcon doesn't want to evade, it doesn't want to tank. It wants to arc dodge as many Ties as possible. If he places himself well, engine upgrade will allow him to halve incoming damage or more. If the Ties manage to bump it consistently WHILE keeping enough of them on firing arcs, then the Ties will have an advantadge.

It is not a lost scenario for neither side. Seriously, go play some more, because it seems like you haven't ever played a falcon with an EU when i read stuff like blocking 2 attacks per turn, That's only useful when you are against 1-2 ships, before you get to that point you want to arc dodge and use your Z's as cockblockers. If you happen to manage to get into a position where only 1 ship can shoot at you, then you evade, and only, if the EU wouldn't take you outside fire arc, or it takes you to a bad position.

Edited by DreadStar

I'm sorry, but Large Base and Arc Dodger are two words that don't go together. A large base cannot consistently get out of arcs.

I'm sorry, but Large Base and Arc Dodger are two words that don't go together. A large base cannot consistently get out of arcs.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh! All the people that say using the falcon is all about its manoeuvres will beat you up.

Correction you are assuming all 5 can get a FOCUSED shot every round.

There's no reason at all why they can't. Getting the falcon who can't use EU isn't that hard to get a shot at.

And I still don't see them winning.

Then your math is way off.

Lets say the 5 Ties do an avg of 6.25 damage per turn. The Falcon is not going to do 2 damage per turn, 3 dice with no focus or TL is going to do .7 damage on avg, against a unmodified 3 defense dice, if the Tie that's shot at uses focus for defense, it does a lot more to lower the Falcons damage output then the Tie Swarms. Sure Han can reroll, but he has to roll all 3 dice, so that doesn't increase the odds at all, it's a new roll of 3 dice, again doing .7 dice on avg.

So lets say the Falcon doesn't have any defensive abilities, just look at pure damage. Turn 1, 5 Ties do 6.25 damage vs 1 damage from the Falcon. Next turn the Falcon does 1 damage and the 5 Ties do 6.25 damage and kill the Falcon.

Give the Falcon either the title or 3-CPO so he gets one evade per turn. Falcon does 1 damage, Ties do 5.25 damage. Next turn Falcon does 1 damage, Ties do 5.25 damage for a total of 10.5. 3rd turn, Falcon kills a Tie, ties do 4 damage killing the Falcon.

Give the Falcon both 3-CPO and Title, for 2 evades per turn. Again the Falcon loses the war of attrition, only now it will take 4 rounds, rather then 3. 4 damage, 4 damage, 3 damage, 3 damage and dead falcon with 4 ties left over.

So in the situation you laid out, the fact is, that 3-CPO does nothing to help a YT-1200 with the Falcon title. In fact you'd be better off not taking an evade and using your action for offensive abilities like TL or Focus.

Edited by VanorDM