Hello all, as far as mathy stuff goes I was wondering at what point is taking a focus token mathematically better then taking an evade token? I know to never trust the green dice but they seem to give me WAY more eyeballs then evades regardless
Math for evade token vs focus token?
Hello all, as far as mathy stuff goes I was wondering at what point is taking a focus token mathematically better then taking an evade token? I know to never trust the green dice but they seem to give me WAY more eyeballs then evades regardless
The break point for a single attack is definitely 4 green dice (25%*4 = 1).
The break point over multiple attacks is debatable, but I'd argue it's 3 dice--that is, if you have 3 dice and you'll be attacked at least twice, you should focus rather than evading.
The break point for a single attack is definitely 4 green dice (25%*4 = 1).The break point over multiple attacks is debatable, but I'd argue it's 3 dice--that is, if you have 3 dice and you'll be attacked at least twice, you should focus rather than evading.Hello all, as far as mathy stuff goes I was wondering at what point is taking a focus token mathematically better then taking an evade token? I know to never trust the green dice but they seem to give me WAY more eyeballs then evades regardless
Never thought about for multiple attacks. I have been trying to fly interceptors and they are fun as hell, but they can be so dam squishy lol. Thanks for the quick reply!
Hello all, as far as mathy stuff goes I was wondering at what point is taking a focus token mathematically better then taking an evade token? I know to never trust the green dice but they seem to give me WAY more eyeballs then evades regardless
It's 5 agility dice makes focus better defensively than 1 evade token.
Each die with focus is 0.25 evades.
Just remember that no matter how many agility dice you roll, an evade token always has the potential of being better than focus.
Hello all, as far as mathy stuff goes I was wondering at what point is taking a focus token mathematically better then taking an evade token? I know to never trust the green dice but they seem to give me WAY more eyeballs then evades regardless
The break point for a single attack is definitely 4 green dice (25%*4 = 1).
The break point over multiple attacks is debatable, but I'd argue it's 3 dice--that is, if you have 3 dice and you'll be attacked at least twice, you should focus rather than evading.
I'm not sure that follows. The only way for a focus to be better than an evade in a situation where you need extra evades is if you roll two eyeballs at the same time, while still having the token.
On three green dice you've got 27/64 zero eyes, 27/64 one eye, 9/64 two eyes, and 1/64 to get three. That means it's more likely you're going to end up with zero than 2+, which implies that the expected value is going to be less than one.
I suppose it might make sense if you've got something like 6 shots incoming, and save the focus token for double+ eyes for the first three shots if you happen to roll them, and then just use the focus on the first eye rolled (single or double) for the final shots.
Plus, of course, focus sticks around until it's your turn to attack if you don't use it defending.
I still like evades because it is guaranteed to throw one shot away. Just be careful for gunner, if they score 2 hits that you didn't dodge then yes spend the evade, if they only score one hit that you didn't dodge save the evade so you don't trigger their gunner.
As a rule if there's a chance you'll get to attack back focus, if they've got behind you evade starts to look real good.
The break point for a single attack is definitely 4 green dice (25%*4 = 1).
The break point over multiple attacks is debatable, but I'd argue it's 3 dice--that is, if you have 3 dice and you'll be attacked at least twice, you should focus rather than evading.
I'm not sure that follows. The only way for a focus to be better than an evade in a situation where you need extra evades is if you roll two eyeballs at the same time, while still having the token.
On three green dice you've got 27/64 zero eyes, 27/64 one eye, 9/64 two eyes, and 1/64 to get three. That means it's more likely you're going to end up with zero than 2+, which implies that the expected value is going to be less than one.
I suppose it might make sense if you've got something like 6 shots incoming, and save the focus token for double+ eyes for the first three shots if you happen to roll them, and then just use the focus on the first eye rolled (single or double) for the final shots.
Your distribution is right: 0 focus results 42% of the time, 1 focus result 42% of the time, 2 focus results 14% of the time, and 3 focus results just 2% of the time. But that doesn't exactly answer the question of how many extra evade results you get when you spend a focus token.
So let's slice the math up from a different direction. You don't (typically) spend your focus token when you have 0 focus results, so the expected number of evade results you get from spending that token is (1 x 42% + 2 x 14% + 3 x 2%) / (42% + 14% + 2%) = 1.3.
Over a single attack, that makes sense: 42% of the time you can't spend your focus token*, and 58% of the time you can; 1.3 x 58% = 0.75, which gets us back to the average number of focus results for that one attack.
But over two attacks**, the number of times you can't spend your focus token drops to 18% (42% x 42%), and the other 82% of the time you do get to use it. So over the course of those two attacks, then, the value of that focus token rises to 1.3 x 82% = 1.1.
Note that I'm not saying here that you hold the focus token until you see two eye results on the dice--you still spend your token the first time it would contribute any number of extra evade results. It just happens that, as long as you'll be attacked at least twice, focus is approximately equivalent to evade.
*Here we should actually be including a modification for how often you need extra evade results to dodge an attack, and that does change the math a little bit--but I'm going to neglect it here to keep things simple, and it doesn't end up changing the overall conclusion.
**The major assumption here is that you survive the first attack even if you can't use your focus token. If the first successful attack will kill you, you should definitely use evade instead of focus!