Thoughts on double firespray and doom shuttle list

By Jaden Ckast, in X-Wing

You generate at least one focus 44% of the time on defense, and I've never felt like not rolling eyes was a consistent problem--but the second half of that last sentence is definitely on target, and it's a somewhat persuasive reason not to run two Recon Specialists. I'd seriously consider one Specialist and one Rebel Captive, among other options.

I'm interested to see where the 44% comes from, I instinctively assumed that 2 dice with 25% chance each of hitting a focus would naturally lead to a combined statistical likelihood of rolling at least 1 focus 50% of the time when rolling 2 defence dice.

That's solid reasoning, but there's a flaw: if one die has a 25% chance, two dice have a 50% chance, and three dice have a 75% chance, what do five dice have?

There are actually multiple ways to get to that 44%, but the easiest way to compute it is to realize there's a 75% chance of rolling something other than a focus result on each die. That means the likelihood of having something other than focus on both dice is 75% x 75% = 56.25%. And if the likelihood of having 0 focus results is 56.25%, than the likelihood of having more than 0 focus results is the rest of the universe--that is, 100% - 56.25% = 43.75%, or 44% if you're lazy like me.

(One of the other ways is to find the likelihood of getting two focus results, which is 25% x 25% = 6.25%, and the likelihood of getting exactly one focus result, which is 2 x 25% x 75% = 37.5%. The 2 is there because there are two arrangements that result in exactly one focus result: you can roll focus on the first die and not-focus on the second die, or vice-versa. Add those up and you get the same 43.75%, which is reassuring.)

And to whoever suggested Kturning with a firespray: you are doing it wrong! There is almost never a reason to Kturn a firespray. It has a rear arc and with seismic charges on board you want them chasing you. There in lies its greatest power.

The K-turn is still useful for smart players, who will often decline to chase you.