I don't think you can either, but you also can't reasonable argue that they are NOT the primary factor in X-wing.

Do you not see how you contradict yourself in this statement?

You agree that you can't reasonably argue that dice are the primary factor, but then say that you can't argue that they're not...

He can if his argument is that the primary factor is impossible to determine.

If the meta is bigger than me here... But I'm big in Japan... Am I bigger than the meta in Japan?

X-wing is a miniatures game that requires skill to play and requires dice to win. You cannot win the match by rolling blanks. You can't. Your opponent can beat you by rolling hits (and crits) no matter what you do (yeah for turrets and soon SoT). You control less than half of the game... Accept that and fly on!

Also, the meta is whatever you think it is when you choose your list. There is no meta when the first ship hits the table...there is no meta during gameplay, you know, the part where we actually play the game.

No, the meta is a combination of what everyone actually chooses. Your understanding of the meta and ability to predict the meta is what you are thinking when you are choosing your list.

Since the meta is about list building, obviously it isn't having any impact once a game has started. List building isn't very important at that point either.

But it's still pretty important during the preparation state.

I'll end with this:Paul Heaver defied the TIE swarm metagame and went with something off the wall, two Adv Sensor B-wings, a Rookie and Biggs. Nowadays we call that XXBB but back then it was new and the odd flight patterns and behaviour of Adv Sensor B-wings that Paul Heaver had learned inside out threw people off balance. He became Wave 3 World Champion, beating the then very powerful Howlrunner Swarm.The Champions aren't champions because they found The One List, they're champions partly because the Random Number God is on their side but mostly because they know their squad inside out and are very good at this game.

Have you even watched the FFG Final with Paul and Dallas? It was SOOOOO close it could have literally gone either way. People tend to think Paul stomped all over TIE swarm with ease. That game itself is a true testament to the randomness of X-wing.For example, Biggs one-shotting Dark Curse at the start of the match at range 3? Paul rolled 3 hits unmodified. Dallas rolled blank, blank, blank, focus. BAM. How much differently would the game have gone if THAT roll would have been any different?

Probably less different then if Biggs would have survived his own run of poor luck by getting burned down despite having range on his side.

Paul won that game when he brought his Bs into the right side of the swarm. That allowed him to dictate the rest of the game and forced the swarm into poor positions for the rest of the game. Looking at that game and thinking the dice were the deciding factor is fairly commical. Dice almost lost Paul that game despite his superior positioning, and yet in the end they didn't decide the outcome.

Contrast this to many versions of 40k where lists tended to be the most consistent variable and players, no matter there experience level, were unable to significantly shift the chance of winning with any given list.

Which is why I brought it up, but apparently that was considered a strawman argument...

In 40k the List is King, and little else matters. You have a killer list and you can effectively walk away every time the other guy moves because you don't need to be there. In fact there's a point in which you could look at both lists and guess which one will win. The only thing that stops it from just comparing lists is the dice.

He can if his argument is that the primary factor is impossible to determine.

Perhaps but I don't think that's what he was trying to say, and even if he was... He's still wrong.

Isn't that what I just said?

If the meta is bigger than me here... But I'm big in Japan... Am I bigger than the meta in Japan?

X-wing is a miniatures game that requires skill to play and requires dice to win. You cannot win the match by rolling blanks. You can't. Your opponent can beat you by rolling hits (and crits) no matter what you do (yeah for turrets and soon SoT). You control less than half of the game... Accept that and fly on!

Also, the meta is whatever you think it is when you choose your list. There is no meta when the first ship hits the table...there is no meta during gameplay, you know, the part where we actually play the game.

No, the meta is a combination of what everyone actually chooses. Your understanding of the meta and ability to predict the meta is what you are thinking when you are choosing your list.

Since the meta is about list building, obviously it isn't having any impact once a game has started. List building isn't very important at that point either.

But it's still pretty important during the preparation state.

I could get into the meta-meta but that seems silly at this point.

This is what I love about the game. Winning lists still require skill. There is no I win list, ans taking something left field can punch above it's weight if you know how to fly it against "superior" lists.

Absolutely this. I've made the mistake of ignoring a HWK too long and it ate me up.

I'll end with this:Paul Heaver defied the TIE swarm metagame and went with something off the wall, two Adv Sensor B-wings, a Rookie and Biggs. Nowadays we call that XXBB but back then it was new and the odd flight patterns and behaviour of Adv Sensor B-wings that Paul Heaver had learned inside out threw people off balance. He became Wave 3 World Champion, beating the then very powerful Howlrunner Swarm.The Champions aren't champions because they found The One List, they're champions partly because the Random Number God is on their side but mostly because they know their squad inside out and are very good at this game.

Have you even watched the FFG Final with Paul and Dallas? It was SOOOOO close it could have literally gone either way. People tend to think Paul stomped all over TIE swarm with ease. That game itself is a true testament to the randomness of X-wing.For example, Biggs one-shotting Dark Curse at the start of the match at range 3? Paul rolled 3 hits unmodified. Dallas rolled blank, blank, blank, focus. BAM. How much differently would the game have gone if THAT roll would have been any different?

Probably less different then if Biggs would have survived his own run of poor luck by getting burned down despite having range on his side.

Paul won that game when he brought his Bs into the right side of the swarm. That allowed him to dictate the rest of the game and forced the swarm into poor positions for the rest of the game. Looking at that game and thinking the dice were the deciding factor is fairly commical. Dice almost lost Paul that game despite his superior positioning, and yet in the end they didn't decide the outcome.

And even if dice HAD been the most deciding factor in that game, pointing to dice deciding a top level game does not indicate dice are the primary factor. Yes, if all other factors are equal, the final factor that is unequal, no matter how small, will decide the contest.

No one is saying dice and randomness ISN'T a part of the game, obviously. And if two players play perfectly with totally equally matched lists, dice will definitely decide the game.

But if two players play perfectly with unevenly matched lists, I would argue the list would end be the deciding factor over the course of many games e.g. you wouldn't see an even spread of victories. If lists were even and one player was significantly better than the other, you would likewise see a very strong trend towards the more skilled player winning, provided the list disparity wasn't to large.

Occasionally you would have outliers due to dice, because they ARE a big factor in the game, and if they swing enough in favor of one player over the other they can trump either of the other two. But those situations are just that, outliers.

And if two players play perfectly with totally equally matched lists, dice will definitely decide the game.

I question if that's even possible. If you gave 2 people the same list, could they both fly perfectly?

I mean put aside human fallibility, since you have to plan your moves based on two factors, one that's out of your control, can you really have a mistake free game? Can they really even be considered a mistake if the other person gets the upper hand?

I enjoy chess, but am not very good at it. But there is a point that you can play a perfect game, in which you correctly guess every possible best move, because you're dealing with a very structured game.

X-Wing on the other hand, you have plan on what you will do based on wildly variable locations and facings, you have to figure out what will give you the greatest advantage, but take into account what the other guy may do, with no way of knowing for sure what the best move he can make is.

Then throw in the randomness of dice, because they do matter, and even the best possible move on your part could still gain you nothing.

And if two players play perfectly with totally equally matched lists, dice will definitely decide the game.

I question if that's even possible. If you gave 2 people the same list, could they both fly perfectly?

I mean put aside human fallibility, since you have to plan your moves based on two factors, one that's out of your control, can you really have a mistake free game? Can they really even be considered a mistake if the other person gets the upper hand?

I enjoy chess, but am not very good at it. But there is a point that you can play a perfect game, in which you correctly guess every possible best move, because you're dealing with a very structured game.

X-Wing on the other hand, you have plan on what you will do based on wildly variable locations and facings, you have to figure out what will give you the greatest advantage, but take into account what the other guy may do, with no way of knowing for sure what the best move he can make is.

Then throw in the randomness of dice, because they do matter, and even the best possible move on your part could still gain you nothing.

Putting aside human fallibility, yes it is technically, or at least theoretically, possible.

Let a super computer do the match and play both sides, so it has full knowledge of both sides moves (thus simulating perfect prediction for both sides). Give both sides having the same list, and totally symmetric asteroid and ship placement. For any given turn it makes the most optimal move, with full knowledge of what the other side is doing. It is then possible to have a match where both players play "perfectly". After each match initiative switches.

We can do the same thing with checkers, and any number of other games that have no factor of randomness.

Now that you have matched skills, you can analyze what decides who wins the games. In checkers it would always be the side who goes first, because there is no randomness. Same with tic tac toe. If would had the capability of simulating a perfect chess game you would see a similar trend.

In X-Wing, in such a perfectly simulated game, we would likely see a fairly random distribution, SLIGHTLY favoring either the side who had initiative or the side who didn't have initiative (which one was an advantage would become obvious over time). But we would still see a mostly random distribution of wins.

It's actually not as hard to isolate the importance of the various factors of gameplay as some people are making it out to be.

I'm saying that the dice determine who wins and loses

And I'm saying that Dice aren't the primary factor in who wins and loses. I'm not sure how much more clearly I can state that.

In some games, dice are pretty much all that matter, X-Wing is not one of them.

If you roll blanks for an entire game, that will be the primary factor in who wins and who loses.

To imply that you can somehow circumvent the dice through other mechanics for the entire game is somewhat naive.

I get what you're saying... doing other things better than your opponent can have far more of an impact on your chances of victory, but at the end of the day, if you roll poorly, you lose...

Now, if you roll extremely well all game, but you have terrible strategic/tactical decision-making... you'll probably still lose.

It reminds me of the MLB card game that used a d20 to resolve everything. If you rolled higher than 10 for most of the game, you'd win. Sure, it'd be against the odds, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen on more than one occasion... and I witnessed it. Likewise, I saw many games where someone couldn't roll higher than a 10... and they were doomed to lose.

That does put the burden squarely on the dice. If you can, over the course of the game, somehow circumvent all of the dice rolls that matter... then it is no longer a dice game.

If you roll blanks for an entire game, that will be the primary factor in who wins and who loses.

Such a thing is statically impossible.

To imply that you can somehow circumvent the dice through other mechanics for the entire game is somewhat naive.

No not really, if I prevent the other guy from rolling any attack dice, then I've circumvented the dice quite nicely. If I just control how many dice he gets to roll, and how many I get to roll, it has an factor. Such as getting primarily range 1 shots on him while making him roll mostly range 3 shots and though asteroids.

Using Focus, TL and Evade, Predator, Outmaneuver, ect... also allow me to circumvent the dice by changing the outcome or just giving me more chances to get a favorable one.

I'm saying that the dice determine who wins and loses

And I'm saying that Dice aren't the primary factor in who wins and loses. I'm not sure how much more clearly I can state that.

In some games, dice are pretty much all that matter, X-Wing is not one of them.

If you roll blanks for an entire game, that will be the primary factor in who wins and who loses.

To imply that you can somehow circumvent the dice through other mechanics for the entire game is somewhat naive.

I get what you're saying... doing other things better than your opponent can have far more of an impact on your chances of victory, but at the end of the day, if you roll poorly, you lose...

Now, if you roll extremely well all game, but you have terrible strategic/tactical decision-making... you'll probably still lose.

It reminds me of the MLB card game that used a d20 to resolve everything. If you rolled higher than 10 for most of the game, you'd win. Sure, it'd be against the odds, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen on more than one occasion... and I witnessed it. Likewise, I saw many games where someone couldn't roll higher than a 10... and they were doomed to lose.

That does put the burden squarely on the dice. If you can, over the course of the game, somehow circumvent all of the dice rolls that matter... then it is no longer a dice game.

Again, something being a factor in a particular game is not the same as it being the primary factor of a game overall. The fact that dice CAN decide a game has not been disputed by anyone. Nor would anyone dispute that whether has decided individual battles.

But in general, whether is not THE primary factor of in deciding battles (e.g. if you have favorable weather you will win). It's a contributing factor that CAN be a deciding factor, but is-in general-over shadowed by other, more important factors.

Likewise, dice are not the primary factor in winning x-wing in general e.g. you don't win just because you are rolling better. It's a contributing factor that CAN be a deciding factor, but is-in general-overshadowed by other, more important factors.

In the small, in individual games, they can decide the game. But those are edge cases. In general players tactical and list building skills are much better predictors of the outcome of a match.

Don't confuse something having a chance of occasionally being a deciding factor with it being the primary, or most important factor.

It's a contributing factor that CAN be a deciding factor, but is-in general-over shadowed by other, more important factors.

Otherwise, as soon as I position one or more of my ships so I can get a range 1 attack w/Focus without being fired on, dice have ceased to become the most important factor.

If you roll blanks for an entire game, that will be the primary factor in who wins and who loses.

And if Katy Perry comes in and tells your opponent to concede the game so he can go on tour with her and offers him a million dollars... that would also be the primary factor in who wins and who loses.

Oh wait we are being serious...

Poor rolling is always a factor, but it is mitigated by movement and by wise choices in actions. If you are always Target Locked or Focused (or maybe even both), you will be rolling MUCH better.

It's a contributing factor that CAN be a deciding factor, but is-in general-over shadowed by other, more important factors.

The only way the dice are The Primary deciding factor in X-Wing, is when both players do nothing but joust on a empty table.

Otherwise, as soon as I position one or more of my ships so I can get a range 1 attack w/Focus without being fired on, dice have ceased to become the most important factor.

I wouldn't go that far.

There are definitely cases where one player may play significantly better and even have a much stronger list, and still lose due to extremely bad rolls. I've definitely participated in games like what. Especially in tournament settings with a 60 minute time limit.

It's an edge case, but there are certainly games where dice end up being the deciding factor. But in general, list and skill are more important in most games.

It's an edge case, but there are certainly games where dice end up being the deciding factor. But in general, list and skill are more important in most games.

Dice can always be a deciding factor, if they weren't then there's no point in having them. But being a deciding factor is quite a bit different then what some are saying.

Even in those situations where a lucky shot, or unlucky evade costs you a critical ship and the game. In nearly every case you could of done something to avoid that situation in the first place.

If you roll blanks for an entire game, that will be the primary factor in who wins and who loses.

And if Katy Perry comes in and tells your opponent to concede the game so he can go on tour with her and offers him a million dollars... that would also be the primary factor in who wins and who loses.

Oh wait we are being serious...

Poor rolling is always a factor, but it is mitigated by movement and by wise choices in actions. If you are always Target Locked or Focused (or maybe even both), you will be rolling MUCH better.

Actually, your Katy Perry example is a really good one, even if taken seriously.

There are many things that can be the deciding factor in individual games, just as much as dice. A player being drunk, a sudden fire causing a match to end early, bribing your opponent, etc. While obviously not as important or common as dice-obviously-any number of things can be the primary factor in individual games. But when talking about the primary factor in a game you are not talking about edge cases or results of individual games. You are talking about averages.

The fact that dice can decide games does not make it primary for the entire game.

There is no doubt that lucky/unlucky dice rolls are a factor, but in this game there are multiple ways to alter die rolls in your favor (Focus, Target Lock, EPTs, Pilot abilities, etc.) by using skill in setting up the situations in which you can make use of them. So in my opinion, dice are below skill and list design as factors in winning a game.

This is just you trying to scrape together something to try and hold onto the belief that you somehow have control over the outcome of the game.

If you believe that you have no control over the outcome of the game, and that the dice are all that matters...

You either don't know how to play, or are playing a different game then the rest of us are.

That or I suppose you're simply trolling this thread.

Have I ever played you on Vassal? Because I'd wreck you in X-wing.

Ahh the classic "I can beat you there for I'm right" argument. Well I think you've proven quite conclusively how strong your argument is.

Perhaps the only thing you do is joust, then I suppose your argument might have some merrit, I mean if all you do is go straight at each other and roll dice, then yes dice would be the primary factor in who wins or losses.

But for most of us, we've learned out to use the whole dial.

"My meta is bigger than yours!" -10. When did it turn into a prick measuring contest?

Dude, chill. No need to go for the personal attacks. Seriously, this is not 4chan. Don't go directly for the, "your a fat loser with no job who obviously lives in his moms basement. By making this claim I have demonstrated my superiority" tactic. It brings down the whole conversation. I apologize if I offended. At least from my perspective it sounded like your stance was, "dice is the primary factor, and if you disagree you must provide proof". Thinking we were having a conversation I attempted to provide it, only to continually hear the same demand for proof. Cycle that a few times, and yeah, it sounds like you are demanding input from a conversation, then ignoring the input given.

Then there was the religious comparison which was way off base, logically speaking.

I obviously did misunderstand, for which you have my apologies. You were going for the socratic method style of conversation, which I can respect.

But you must realize, Socratic style discussion really doesn't work when, when people attempt to engage you IN conversation about the points you are bringing up, you first ignore them (which can be fine on a forum, obviously most of us are busy) and then when you do respond it's with insults, right? Kind of undermining your position of trying to be a reasonable questioner of people assumptions.

No problem then. As I said, I apologize for misunderstanding your position. But please try to keep it cool.

A few people here don't seem to understand what the metagame is.

What determines the victor of an X-wing game, or similar games? Three things. Your skill, your squad, and the random number god. The first two are the battlefields on which you compete, and they're called the game and the metagame, respectively.

The metagame (compound of meta-, Greek prefix for "beyond," and game) is the game outside the game, the squadbuilding aspect. It's rife with netdecking, which is copying winning lists believing they'll win for you, and accepting the "prevailing wisdom" without thinking about it for yourself. Doing this is assuming the game is all but decided on the squadbuilding field, that the random number god and the gameplay only have a minor influence. In an unbalanced game, this is true: take a broken squad and the game's pretty much in the bag from the start against an unbroken squad. Magic and Warhammer are notorious for this, and because those two are dominant, people assume they can win in the metagame with X-wing as well. It's ingrained.

FFG hates the game being decided in the metagame. They'd sooner overcost a card to the point of competitive unviability than risk breaking it (although mistakes do happen). They want the number of viable squads to be very broad, and each ship to be usable in a variety of different ways.

X-wing is a game that's been balanced well, and FFG are constantly balancing the old stuff in their new releases (other companies like Wizards of the Coast just render old releases tournament illegal) and adding new options to things that get stuck in a specific mold (like the B-wing). A few things are competitively weak but nothing is overly strong.

The problem with netdecking is that a large number of other people are also netdecking. In an unbalanced game, you usually have to netdeck to stand a chance. However, netdecking means that you're flying a squad everyone's seen before and everyone knows how to fight. The game's balanced, so if someone takes a squad that does something unexpected and goes up against your netdeck they A: know how you fly and how to beat you and B: you don't know how they fly and how to beat you. A good player can usually adapt well but that's still a disadvantage.

Secondly, and here's the major one: picking up the netdeck doesn't mean you know how to use it. This is the first aspect, game skill. Echo is very good, fly Echo like an X-wing and Echo is 35-40 points of dead. Fly the Falcon thinking "it's a turret I don't need to bother with maneuvers" and an opponent who knows how to fight Falcons will block you into the position he wants you in and focus fire you into oblivion with the rest of his team. A while ago I said on a thread that 8 TIE swarms (four Obsidians and four Academies) don't happen, they need Howlrunner and her firepower or some other buff. That list I just said didn't happen won the French National. By cutting out Howlrunner, the TIEs weren't shackled to Range 1 of each other and thus were safe from Assault Missiles and could break formation to cover the field in so many arcs the phantoms couldn't escape.

A list that varies from the herd flown well beats the Champion's squad flown badly. Thanks to the Random Number God, it can even beat the Champion's list flown well. That's not to say you should fly four Tempest Squadron pilots, but a little creativity can lead to your opponent fighting an unfamiliar beast while you're fighting something everyone's seen before.

I'll end with this:

Paul Heaver defied the TIE swarm metagame and went with something off the wall, two Adv Sensor B-wings, a Rookie and Biggs. Nowadays we call that XXBB but back then it was new and the odd flight patterns and behaviour of Adv Sensor B-wings that Paul Heaver had learned inside out threw people off balance. He became Wave 3 World Champion, beating the then very powerful Howlrunner Swarm.

The Champions aren't champions because they found The One List, they're champions partly because the Random Number God is on their side but mostly because they know their squad inside out and are very good at this game.Make a good list, learn its intricacies and how to fly it better than anyone who copies it, and don't annoy the random number god. That's the path to success.

That, and making regular human sacrifices to the Random Number God. A few people here don't seem to understand what the metagame is.

What determines the victor of an X-wing game, or similar games? Three things. Your skill, your squad, and the random number god. The first two are the battlefields on which you compete, and they're called the game and the metagame, respectively.

The metagame (compound of meta-, Greek prefix for "beyond," and game) is the game outside the game, the squadbuilding aspect. It's rife with netdecking, which is copying winning lists believing they'll win for you, and accepting the "prevailing wisdom" without thinking about it for yourself. Doing this is assuming the game is all but decided on the squadbuilding field, that the random number god and the gameplay only have a minor influence. In an unbalanced game, this is true: take a broken squad and the game's pretty much in the bag from the start against an unbroken squad. Magic and Warhammer are notorious for this, and because those two are dominant, people assume they can win in the metagame with X-wing as well. It's ingrained.

FFG hates the game being decided in the metagame. They'd sooner overcost a card to the point of competitive unviability than risk breaking it (although mistakes do happen). They want the number of viable squads to be very broad, and each ship to be usable in a variety of different ways.

X-wing is a game that's been balanced well, and FFG are constantly balancing the old stuff in their new releases (other companies like Wizards of the Coast just render old releases tournament illegal) and adding new options to things that get stuck in a specific mold (like the B-wing). A few things are competitively weak but nothing is overly strong.

The problem with netdecking is that a large number of other people are also netdecking. In an unbalanced game, you usually have to netdeck to stand a chance. However, netdecking means that you're flying a squad everyone's seen before and everyone knows how to fight. The game's balanced, so if someone takes a squad that does something unexpected and goes up against your netdeck they A: know how you fly and how to beat you and B: you don't know how they fly and how to beat you. A good player can usually adapt well but that's still a disadvantage.

Secondly, and here's the major one: picking up the netdeck doesn't mean you know how to use it. This is the first aspect, game skill. Echo is very good, fly Echo like an X-wing and Echo is 35-40 points of dead. Fly the Falcon thinking "it's a turret I don't need to bother with maneuvers" and an opponent who knows how to fight Falcons will block you into the position he wants you in and focus fire you into oblivion with the rest of his team. A while ago I said on a thread that 8 TIE swarms (four Obsidians and four Academies) don't happen, they need Howlrunner and her firepower or some other buff. That list I just said didn't happen won the French National. By cutting out Howlrunner, the TIEs weren't shackled to Range 1 of each other and thus were safe from Assault Missiles and could break formation to cover the field in so many arcs the phantoms couldn't escape.

A list that varies from the herd flown well beats the Champion's squad flown badly. Thanks to the Random Number God, it can even beat the Champion's list flown well. That's not to say you should fly four Tempest Squadron pilots, but a little creativity can lead to your opponent fighting an unfamiliar beast while you're fighting something everyone's seen before.

I'll end with this:

Paul Heaver defied the TIE swarm metagame and went with something off the wall, two Adv Sensor B-wings, a Rookie and Biggs. Nowadays we call that XXBB but back then it was new and the odd flight patterns and behaviour of Adv Sensor B-wings that Paul Heaver had learned inside out threw people off balance. He became Wave 3 World Champion, beating the then very powerful Howlrunner Swarm.

The Champions aren't champions because they found The One List, they're champions partly because the Random Number God is on their side but mostly because they know their squad inside out and are very good at this game.Make a good list, learn its intricacies and how to fly it better than anyone who copies it, and don't annoy the random number god. That's the path to success.

That, and making regular human sacrifices to the Random Number God.

The above quote is a bit of X Wing brilliance, thank you for taking the time to get this out. It hope people have read it and it doesn't disappear so quickly.

...

I started this thread after a few scotches, feeling sorry for myself, and trusting the community for some response to my own insight into my disastrous attempt at flying so called "top" ships. I shut down my iPad for the night and went to bed thinking that I would be railed upon. To my surprise too many of you to count agreed with my initial post, It resonated with the community.

I took this time to interrupt the very interesting discussion that has come out of it, just to say thanks for hearing a player trying to improve his game and wondering what to make of the "Meta". Will I continue to try and fly the current meta ships, for sure, but in future I will be a heck of a lot less cocky.