Okay, I had missed the target lock, so I will accept your point there. However...
1. Have you flown this against a range of opponents? whenever I've used FCS with a phantom I've never shot the same ship 2 turns in a row.
2. The free focus for whisper can't be used on the attack and goes at the end of the turn. Could be useful for defence, but at 3 agility dice rather than 4 you're limiting it's effectiveness.
3. The TL would apply whether you use focus or expose, so let me adjust my formula:
0.75(d+1) > 0.9375d
This holds true for values of d up to 3. at 4 dice it's equal, whilst at range 1 you're better off with TL & focus. Given all the other negatives of evade (lack of an EPT, reduced defence, 4 point cost) I would, personally be wanting more for my investment.
4. just a quick devil's advocate point to show I'm not completely close-minded: if the defensive penalties of expose are ever going to be mitigated it's by a ship with the arc dodging capabilities of the phantom. Trouble is this is merely one of a host of penalties with expose.
5. dreadstar's point about you being at 2 defence dice against HSF is also very valid.
I appreciate that you have looked into the probabilities, which is more than most advocates of expose, I'm just can't agree with your conclusions.
Cheerio,
Ben
Edited by malladin.ben