Well I haven't played enough with the Z95 to know which one's "better", but I suspect I'll end up still preferring the Tie Fighter as the more fun ship to play.

I must say, there are some people here who seem to be asserting that because the die-maths apparently make the two ships about equal that they therefore are about equal. I say not so - the dial and the actions (barrel roll vs target lock for example) make a huge difference, and I haven't seen any maths that says "on average you'll use a barrel roll or a speed one turn to get out of an arc roughly x times out of y".

Barrel Roll, evade, and the dial differences just about make up for the fact the Z-95 is a whole lot less likely to be one shotted, and far less vulnerable to critical hits. Ties are great ships, but they are still really easy to blow up in one shot. Against a 4 dice attack(the first reasonably probable one shot location for a Z-95 a Tie fighter is getting one shotted 10% of the time with focus, while a Z95 is getting one shotted 4% of the time. Take away the focuses and the Z-95 is at 11% while the Tie has a 30% chance of getting one shotted.

That's where I don't quite follow you - if you've barrel rolled out of arc then there is no maths involved.

Ha.. if you are barrel rolling out of 8 95's firing arcs your opponent is "doing it wrong" and not flying his 95's very well. One of the great strengths of the swarm is taking away your opponents ability to maneuver with your large amount of firing arcs.

I'm not talking about a ship's abilities vs a specific squad, I'm talking about it's theoretical strength, and if your model doesn't take into account the potential benefits of a ship's actions then your model is incomplete; in fact without the ability to quantify the value of the missing information the model is potentially completely misleading.

There has been many reports on the effectiveness of the Z-swarms. People who can fly them well will be pleasantly surprised.

Those who takes them lightly will be wondering - what just happened??? (As the Zs tear their squad apart.)

If you are a chess player - think of it as trading your pawns for their knights, bishops, & queens.

Again, it's not a matter of taking them lightly or not. It's that you're extrapolating from 3x naked Z-95s against 3x naked TIE Fighters to 8 vs 8 of each, which is potentially problematic from the start; then you jump from the effectiveness of 8 naked TIE Fighters to the effectiveness of a more typical TIE swarm; you jump from there to an assertion that Z-95s are superior to TIEs and will replace them as the "new swarm meta".

None of it makes any sense.

You are right to criticized me, if my enthusiasm was based solely on my observation on the 3 ships AI experiment.

Let me break it down a bit for you:

Oh, goody.

I started, as I suspect like most of you - I thought that the Z-95 as a filler ship & if 1 vs 1 against a Tie, the Tie will win by it superior agility abilities. This turned out not to be the case.

Okay, that's error #1. I think MajorJuggler's methodology for determining ships' point value is flawed in some specific ways, but one thing he and I have agreed on for (literally) months is that it's a toss-up between a Z-95 and a TIE Fighter, or even moderately tilted in the Headhunter's direction due to better PS.

Next, I tried the 3 vs 3 experiment (which I reported). I was surprised how easily the Zs handled the Ties. So I posed this thread to see if others have come across similar things. Mind you, I merely made an inquiry. Now "IF" others have similar successes, won't it make the Z-swarm a better swarm meta to prepare for?

This is error #2: there's no reason to suppose that the metagame can't accommodate multiple kinds of swarms, particularly since the Z-95 and TIE Fighter are ships with very different strengths and limitations, and which are also located in different factions.

If you carefully followed this threads, others reported that the Zs has been performing well in their tourneys. In the battle report forum - there are also reports of Zs surprising wins.

This is just Error #1 after a costume change: your personal sense of surprise that the Z-95 is an effective fighter for its cost isn't evidence.

Next, I did some research on the winning % of different ship metas and discovered the the Tie swarm has the highest winning percentage at around low 40%.

Error #1 again: this is not surprising information.

So if you couple all these together, The Zs gives you a ship that is better than the Tie.

(sigh)

Okay, I'll reiterate. You found that in a very narrow context, a handful of Z-95s can defeat a handful of TIE fighters, and from there you're extrapolating to the coming dominance of Z-95 swarms.

But you've failed to establish any of the premises upon which you're relying. First, your 3-on-3 experiment is suggestive of a narrow principle, but it doesn't prove that Headhunters are universally superior to TIE Fighters. Second, even if it did demonstrate that Headhunter > TIE/ln, the (marginal) superiority of an individual Z-95 over a TIE at the same price doesn't generalize into the superiority of a Headhunter swarm over a TIE swarm. Third, even if you had proven that Headhunter swarm > TIE swarm, that has little or no bearing on how the Headhunter swarm does against the 67% of high-performance Regionals lists that are not TIE swarms.

So if you are going to a tourney without preparing to face a variation of them. You might be at a disadvantage. With that said, I won't say any more of the beauty of the Z swarm, because I might just be playing against some of you in official tourney.

I genuinely wish you luck, but I suspect you're setting yourself up for another surprise.

If you carefully followed this threads, others reported that the Zs has been performing well in their tourneys. In the battle report forum - there are also reports of Zs surprising wins.

The plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes," not "data."

Next, I did some research on the winning % of different ship metas and discovered the the Tie swarm has the highest winning percentage at around low 40%.

How would you even determine this?

I think MajorJuggler's methodology for determining ships' point value is flawed in some specific ways, but one thing he and I have agreed on for (literally) months is that it's a toss-up between a Z-95 and a TIE Fighter, or even moderately tilted in the Headhunter's direction due to better PS.

Agreed. For background, if I can put words in Vorpal's mouth, I think we have both moderated somewhat since my initial attempts: I recognize that placing values on non statistical mechanisms becomes very iffy once the capabilities are unique, and he recognized that at least the results seem to be fairly well in-line with actual successful competitive usage.

What we largely agree on is the basic math on calculating the attack and durability values of a ship based on its stat line. A.K.A. the raw "jousting" values. I am now taking a few different sample points, each representing a different "meta" of proportions of base attack and defense dice. This puts a range on the predicted jousting value, but in all cases, the Z-95 does really well. Even in the worst case it is slightly better, using average damage numbers, than the TIE Fighter, but only by a hair. The PS boost nudges overall cost efficiency slightly in favor of the Z-95, as it's essentially worth another 0.5 points. This is before considering Howlrunner or other AoE abilities like Etahn.

Also, it's on my to-do list to calculate the actual number of shots that should be required to kill any given stat line, which is more informative than the average damage numbers that I am currently using for my value calculation.

Next, I did some research on the winning % of different ship metas and discovered the the Tie swarm has the highest winning percentage at around low 40%.

How would you even determine this?

For the wave 3 meta TIE Swarms (6-8 TIEs) represent more like 33% according to my latest data, although that includes mixing in the occasional Interceptor and Bomber. I am collecting 2014 Regionals data and inputting it into Excel. Summary statistics here:

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/105107-2014-regionals-results/?p=1066846

I use a weighted average of attendance / squad placement

You can download the Excel file if you are curious. It's now close to 50MB from all the weighted average and squad archetype cell calculations.

Next, I did some research on the winning % of different ship metas and discovered the the Tie swarm has the highest winning percentage at around low 40%.

How would you even determine this?

For the wave 3 meta TIE Swarms (6-8 TIEs) represent more like 33% according to my latest data, although that includes mixing in the occasional Interceptor and Bomber. I am collecting 2014 Regionals data and inputting it into Excel. Summary statistics here:

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/105107-2014-regionals-results/?p=1066846

I use a weighted average of attendance / squad placement

You can download the Excel file if you are curious. It's now close to 50MB from all the weighted average and squad archetype cell calculations.

I love how meticulously you are recording these results (thanks!), but looking exclusively at (1) Regional tournaments and (2) top finishers is not really a universal picture of the X-wing meta. I suppose jpltanis's posts imply that we are discussing tournament viability, and for that analysis, your data should be pretty good. Nevertheless, you do not have win/loss records for each list, which is what the OP is claiming to represent. (Edit: Unless "winning percentage" means something different; still the parameters are poorly defined)

I love how meticulously you are recording these results (thanks!), but looking exclusively at (1) Regional tournaments and (2) top finishers is not really a universal picture of the X-wing meta. I suppose jpltanis's posts imply that we are discussing tournament viability, and for that analysis, your data should be pretty good. Nevertheless, you do not have win/loss records for each list, which is what the OP is claiming to represent. (Edit: Unless "winning percentage" means something different; still the parameters are poorly defined)

1. There is also a Store Championship thread, and now a Nationals thread.
2. The Vassal tournament has 2 possible squads making it impossible to run the statistics in a similar manner, otherwise I would have already.
3. You are correct, it does not represent the universal meta. It represents the best of the competitive meta. If you want to start a thread on "all losing squads" or "all squads everywhere" then go for it! I personally don't see the point, and data collection is exponentially more difficult to get 100% of the squads. I would know.

That said, if you have suggestions on how to better present or calculate the data, I am always all ears!

Well I haven't played enough with the Z95 to know which one's "better", but I suspect I'll end up still preferring the Tie Fighter as the more fun ship to play.

I must say, there are some people here who seem to be asserting that because the die-maths apparently make the two ships about equal that they therefore are about equal. I say not so - the dial and the actions (barrel roll vs target lock for example) make a huge difference, and I haven't seen any maths that says "on average you'll use a barrel roll or a speed one turn to get out of an arc roughly x times out of y".

Barrel Roll, evade, and the dial differences just about make up for the fact the Z-95 is a whole lot less likely to be one shotted, and far less vulnerable to critical hits. Ties are great ships, but they are still really easy to blow up in one shot. Against a 4 dice attack(the first reasonably probable one shot location for a Z-95 a Tie fighter is getting one shotted 10% of the time with focus, while a Z95 is getting one shotted 4% of the time. Take away the focuses and the Z-95 is at 11% while the Tie has a 30% chance of getting one shotted.

That's where I don't quite follow you - if you've barrel rolled out of arc then there is no maths involved.

Ha.. if you are barrel rolling out of 8 95's firing arcs your opponent is "doing it wrong" and not flying his 95's very well. One of the great strengths of the swarm is taking away your opponents ability to maneuver with your large amount of firing arcs.

I'm not talking about a ship's abilities vs a specific squad, I'm talking about it's theoretical strength, and if your model doesn't take into account the potential benefits of a ship's actions then your model is incomplete; in fact without the ability to quantify the value of the missing information the model is potentially completely misleading.

my mistake. thought we were talking about 8 ties vs 8 95's. I must admit I am skimming through most of the posts here as they are tons of qoutes and different conversations going on. You are correct about taking each ships abilities into account regardless of the list you are flying against.

What we largely agree on is the basic math on calculating the attack and durability values of a ship based on its stat line. A.K.A. the raw "jousting" values.

FWIW I think I tend to side more with VS then you on your numbers. I've read them, I understand them for the most part, but think there are some issues. Such as not being able to take the non statistical mechanisms as you put it, into the mix.

But I've always considered your numbers if nothing else, a good starting point. Sure they may not tell the whole story, but you don't need the whole story to get started. What your numbers seem to do is a very good job of looking at the value of a ship in a vacuum. You can say that a Z-95 is slightly better then a Tie/Ln, and that is accurate even if it doesn't tell the whole story.

Because it gives us a starting point, it has value. Also IMO it's not that hard to look at the other items and factor them in. I think most anyone who's played much can accurately determine the value of a Barrel Roll for example, or Shields, or a Boost action.

So anyone who thinks your numbers have no value, does so because they simply don't understand how to take them as a starting point and go from there.

Yeah it's an excellent starting point for sure. Also, shields are actually explicitly included now. It turns out they are only worth about 15% more than hull even if you value non double damage crits at 33% more than a regular hit. This follows from focus being the default action, it doesn't generate critical hits.

I agreed that my assertions may still be speculative & my logic may be flawed plus there is always the dice factor, etc.

I guess whether the Zs will bear itself out in time and be proven or disproved will be on the battlemats.

For someone to say that I will be dispointed in the tourney without knowing what my squad is consisted of - is just as unreasoned and is to failed your own logic.

Many of you that dismissed Zs, probably have yet to faced one (I am presuming).

We will let the results dictate it success or failure.

You can't trick me into disclosing my squad, I plan to keep this advantage.

my mistake. thought we were talking about 8 ties vs 8 95's. I must admit I am skimming through most of the posts here as they are tons of qoutes and different conversations going on. You are correct about taking each ships abilities into account regardless of the list you are flying against.

Might be my mistake - I've been skim reading too!

I don't like the way this thread is going. I only bought two Z95s as I thought they'd just be a filler/support ship, no good for swarms. Sounds like I might need some more...

Many of you that dismissed Zs, probably have yet to faced one (I am presuming).

Me, upthread:

Or, to put it another way, I've had 4x Bandits and 4x Talas on the table (with proxies, obviously, because I'm not Mitt Romney). It's not a terrible list, like 8 TIEs isn't a terrible list, and it wona fair number of games--but things that just tore it up included TIE swarms with 6 and 7 ships, double Falcons, and a smaller Z-swarm equipped with missiles.

You can't trick me into disclosing my squad, I plan to keep this advantage.

Gosh, you're right. What will I do now that you've found me out? You see, this has all been a long con to get you to reveal your 100% sure-fire, uncounterable Headhunter list. Sure, after the first round of your first tournament everyone will know what it is, and there are excellent odds that someone else on the boards has already thought of something very similar. But that one game could make or break things, and it depends on absolute secrecy!

I don't like the way this thread is going. I only bought two Z95s as I thought they'd just be a filler/support ship, no good for swarms. Sounds like I might need some more...

My sincere advice is that you're not missing out on the next big metagame-swamping thing by only owning a couple of Z-95s. If you (and I) are right, it saves you the embarrassment and expense of five or six Headhunters collecting dust on your shelf; if you (and I) are wrong, then it'll be obvious by the end of the year and you can hint to your friends and family that Z-95 reprints would make excellent Christmas, Chanukah, Kwanzaa, Yule, and/or Festivus gifts.

Sounds like I might need some more...

I think they work well either way. You can use them for filler/support. Either of the named pilots are cheep enough to add into most any list and both add a fair amount...

Airen at PS8 with a built in Squad Leader for 19 points.. That's hard to beat. His ability does have some limits, but it also goes off in the combat phase so that gives you other options that SL doesn't.

Lt Blount autohit is also great if you face a lot of ships with Stealth Device. Plus PS6 for 17 points isn't bad either. Or just a couple Tala or Bandits as nothing more then filler/blocker is good.

But they do work fairly well as a swam, but IMO work best when you put some upgrades on them, with the high PS and low cost they make a great alpha strike type of swarm.

I don't think you need more then 2, even though I have 6 myself. I might even buy another 2 down the road if my group gets more into epic sized games. But I also tend to buy a lot of ships, I own 2 Advanced for example...

Skim reading is like skim milk... Oh this isn't the one about breakfast.

I don't doubt zwarms will appear but I don't fear them without missiles. I don't fear 8 tie swarms most of the time either. Both are good and can be great when run by a great pilot. That pilot often beats you no matter what he/she is flying.

I like adding a concussion missile and if I can fit it a hull upgrade on 2 of them and getting 2 cheaper rookies out of the deal. Gives you those 2pts you always need for an EPT on something.

The PS 1 blocking capabilities of the Tie swarm must also be accounted for, not just the advantage of PS 2 shooting first. Having no actions or being denied K turns or focus fire because the lower PS ship clogged the field has always been a way to even out the PS shooting advantage.

With that in mind, these ships are likely properly costed. If FFG thought they weren't, then they'd have made the Z95 cost 1 more point.

As people have stated, which swarm is better will be determined by how the match is played, which cant solely be determined by numbers alone. If the Z95 lets itself be blocked and doesnt take out ships with its higher PS, action denial will make it have a higher chance to lose. If the PS 1 Tie Swarm doesn't block, it has a higher chance to lose. etc etc etc.

Just my 2 cents.

For someone to say that I will be dispointed in the tourney without knowing what my squad is consisted of - is just as unreasoned and is to failed your own logic.

Let me dig up the exact quote.

Now, for the sake of argument, let's assume you're right and your Z-95 swarm will shred every possible permutation of a TIE swarm it comes across (rather than the practically non-existent Academy Eight which I'll admit 8 Z-95s stand a fair chance against). You've beaten one type of squad, and a squad that FFG have put in so many counters for its numbers are going to drop like butterflies in a chlorine cloud.

Now you've got to take on the elite YT-1300 squads, the four-ship heavy rebels, the Space Cow Brigades, the multi-Firespray teams, the swarm-killing ACD Phantom + Support squads, the original you never see coming. Tournaments have a lot more than TIE swarms: if you're going in believing you've found the new big thing without thinking how you'll deal with these you're in for a crushing disappointment.

Alternatively, I can (figuratively speaking) draw you a picture.

Vapor Sword - I respect your points and arguments.

I never said that Zs will be "100% sure-fire, uncountable". You are misunderstand my prediction. I only said that they "can" be just as good as the Tie-swarms when it comes to winning percentage. (I am sure no one believes that the Tie-swarm is "100% sure-fire, uncountable").

I am only putting forth this: If one is design a squad for a tourney, they may want to account for it. That is it.

It is no different as if you are creating a new squad, I am sure you would take into consideration on how well the squad will do against a Tie swarm, right?

Mind you, this is just a prediction on my part. Ask yourself, how can something be a prediction, if it already can be backed by 100% facts? Won't that make it a fact and thus not a prediction.

@Jpltanis

I am a newbye in this game, but not to competitive gaming, i will be a little blunt ,no offense intended really, but any result you obtained from playing 3vs3 ships using an AI, which really isn't an AI, more like a semi random maneuver generator, is worthless.

Get a friend and playtest the 8 tie vs 8 z's extensively, then you not only may get results of interest for yourself, but you can learn a lot from that kind of testing/practice games. And this is why i really meant no offense, because it seems that you enjoy the theorycrafting and putting time into it, but the important thing is how it is really played out in the table against a real opponent. And i am sure you would enjoy it much more that way.

Cheers!

I am sure you would take into consideration on how well the squad will do against a Tie swarm, right?

Things that kill TIE swarms will kill Z swarms too.

I only said that they "can" be just as good as the Tie-swarms when it comes to winning percentage.

You are aware that Wave 4 contains a huge amount of antiswarm, right? The stuff built to kill TIE swarms works just as well on Z-95s. If they match the TIE swarm (which I assert they don't, even with Etahn Abaht), then they're at best average now.

Let just be clear about this.

I am not saying 8-Z squad is "100% sure-fire, uncountable" as Vapor had put it.

I defined a swarm as 4 or more ships of the same type (that just my definition), that leaves many posibilities for other ships to be in the squad.

Next, I am not making this prediction solely based on the 3 vs 3 AI experiment. The experiment only opened my eyes to the effective of the Z-95 flying as a group. If this was the case, I am absolutely stupid as many of you have correctly pointed out. (I had tried to explain how I derived this conclusion, perhaps I did a poor job on it.) In any case, it is just a prediction and yet to be proven by future play. Though some early human vs human battle reports seemed to support my suspicions.

Yep, the things that was good against the Tie Swarm will be effective against the Zs. Z-95's shields helps with "crits", which otherwise can down a Tie.

Finally, the Tie swarm currently holds the highest winning % ( I know this is on the way down as FFG gives us more and more ways to counter it). If the Zs can approach Tie swarm's winning % - even if it drops to say 33% - That is 1 out of 3 games, which is still better than the other meta types's winning percentage.

I have no doubt that in time the winning % of the metas will eventually even out, because the game is so balance. Isn't this why we love the game.

I've tried both 8/7 ties and 8/7 Zs (with the models), I'm not convinced any is superior to the other.

To be honest I rolled a dice on the morning of the French National to see which swarm I would play.

They both have very different strengths (3 greens, holwrunner, hard 1 turns, barrel roll, 3 and 4 koiogran vs shields, 1 bank/forward, missiles) and weaknesses (3 hull vs 3 Koiogran only, no hard 1 turn).

I'm convinced a Z swarm is a very solid list in the hand of a good pilot.

Finally, the Tie swarm currently holds the highest winning % ( I know this is on the way down as FFG gives us more and more ways to counter it). If the Zs can approach Tie swarm's winning % - even if it drops to say 33% - That is 1 out of 3 games, which is still better than the other meta types's winning percentage.

This percentage doesn't mean much without qualifying what it's a percentage of (if it's percentage of games played by that squad won by that squad that's a terrible stat, 1 in 3 wins is 2 in 3 losses), and you still haven't shown us where these numbers come from.

Finally, the Tie swarm currently holds the highest winning % ( I know this is on the way down as FFG gives us more and more ways to counter it). If the Zs can approach Tie swarm's winning % - even if it drops to say 33% - That is 1 out of 3 games, which is still better than the other meta types's winning percentage.

This percentage doesn't mean much without qualifying what it's a percentage of (if it's percentage of games played by that squad won by that squad that's a terrible stat, 1 in 3 wins is 2 in 3 losses), and you still haven't shown us where these numbers come from.

That came from someone in the forum, whom had collected all the results from all the tourneys played worldwide thus far.

What draw my eyes was the Tie swarm had the highest number wins followed by a 4 ship rebel squad (~ 25%). Maybe if he/she see this will re-post it. The article may be a few month back around the time before Imdarr Alpha. I am sure it was on the forum here.

Finally, the Tie swarm currently holds the highest winning % ( I know this is on the way down as FFG gives us more and more ways to counter it). If the Zs can approach Tie swarm's winning % - even if it drops to say 33% - That is 1 out of 3 games, which is still better than the other meta types's winning percentage.

This percentage doesn't mean much without qualifying what it's a percentage of (if it's percentage of games played by that squad won by that squad that's a terrible stat, 1 in 3 wins is 2 in 3 losses), and you still haven't shown us where these numbers come from.

That came from someone in the forum, whom had collected all the results from all the tourneys played worldwide thus far.

What draw my eyes was the Tie swarm had the highest number wins followed by a 4 ship rebel squad (~ 25%). Maybe if he/she see this will re-post it. The article may be a few month back around the time before Imdarr Alpha. I am sure it was on the forum here.

MajorJuggler has posted several times in the thread already, including this:

For the wave 3 meta TIE Swarms (6-8 TIEs) represent more like 33% according to my latest data, although that includes mixing in the occasional Interceptor and Bomber. I am collecting 2014 Regionals data and inputting it into Excel. Summary statistics here:

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/105107-2014-regionals-results/?p=1066846

33% isn't the win percentage for TIE swarms; it's the proportion of lists that won or placed at a Regionals event with 6-8 Imperial ships.