It's one point less and won't actually always be useful, either. Wedge's only two options are focus and TL, and if he target locks, predator won't be used. With focus, each die has a 75% chance of hitting anyway. It's not about how much average damage you do, btw, it's about maximizing it. Xwings have green one forward and banks, so keeping a ship in their arc isn't tough.

...which is why Wedge with Predator will always take Focus as his action, rather than Target Lock. Best of both worlds.

Your second point is highly debatable as well, since Predator helps Wedge maximise ACTUAL damage output every time he opens fire. Opportunist helps Wedge maximise POTENTIAL damage output, at the cost of stress, provided the target has no defense tokens. There's a big difference between the two.

As for green one forward and green one banks helping you keep ships in arc - if that's what you're relying on, be prepared to find Imperial ships on your six, very quickly.

Listen, if you want to argue that Predator is better overall than opportunist in general for Wedge, I'd agree and your points are the same ones I'd make in general. In this list, with Wes where you can take Opportunist when you want it and you need to hit hard fast and early? It doesn't.

Here's a table of hit probabilities: http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/915146/math-wing-hit-probabilities

Provided I'm reading it right, once you are looking to get at least two hits 4 dice with target lock OR focus (IE opportunist) is at worst comparable to 3 dice with BOTH focus and target lock, (IE predator approximation) and opportunist is significantly better the higher the target's agility. Of course, predator is one only one reroll and not a full target lock, so I think it's pretty clear that opportunist is going to hit harder both on average, and obviously, potentially. The only situations where predator is definitely better, provided I'm reading it right, are in the fact that it has a higher chance of getting a single hit and is probably roughly equivalent at getting two hits on agility one (or less) targets. In this list, especially with Abaht, you don't want to nickel and dime, you want to obliterate ships.

Red winter summed up my points about the green ones, so I won't go into detail there.

Opportunist Wedge at Range 2 with a focus averages 2.60 damage against a 2 agility target with focus stripped by Wes.

Predator wedge with focus manages 2.31 with a single reroll against the same, and 2.44 if he gets 2 rerolls.

That's a significant damage hike. Opportunist has some limitations, for sure, but On a build with Wes it can be very very brutal.

On a build without Wes The damage drops by a lot. In other news Wes Janson is a beast.

Neither of you have addressed the point that Opportunist is situational and Predator is not. Wedge with Predator still gets all the benefits of Wes stripping tokens for him - i.e. no defence mechanisms, and the benefit of both rerolls AND focus without having to soak a stress token.

Wes could get shot down. It happens. Wes could one shot his target. It happens. Wes and Wedge could find themselves unable to engage the same target. It happens. Wedge could find himself stressed. It happens.

In ALL of the above cases, Opportunist on Wedge becomes effectively redundant, for one turn at least. Predator, on the other hand, remains usable and effective. Opportunist can potentially see one or two uses a game, max. Predator will see use every single time you open fire. SImple as that.

Opportunist on Wedge in combination with Wes is fantastic.

Yes. If by fantastic you mean so long as Wes is alive, and capable of shooting at the same target that Wedge is planning to engage, and doesn't actually kill that target himself, it's great.

Predator however, doesn't have ANY conditions attached to it's effectiveness, works whether Wes is alive, dead or otherwise engaged, and still allows Wedge to benefit from Wes' token stripping if the chance arises as well.

In short - Opportunist is conditional (hence the name), Predator is not.

Conditional, but the extra die from Opportunist combined with a Focus mathematically averages more damage than the three Focused Dice and Predator, though the difference in the average is less than a full damage. So, there's the trade-off.

Opportunist on Wedge in combination with Wes is fantastic.

Yes. If by fantastic you mean so long as Wes is alive, and capable of shooting at the same target that Wedge is planning to engage, and doesn't actually kill that target himself, it's great.

Predator however, doesn't have ANY conditions attached to it's effectiveness, works whether Wes is alive, dead or otherwise engaged, and still allows Wedge to benefit from Wes' token stripping if the chance arises as well.

In short - Opportunist is conditional (hence the name), Predator is not.

Conditional, but the extra die from Opportunist combined with a Focus mathematically averages more damage than the three Focused Dice and Predator, though the difference in the average is less than a full damage. So, there's the trade-off.

Neither of you have addressed the point that Opportunist is situational and Predator is not. Wedge with Predator still gets all the benefits of Wes stripping tokens for him - i.e. no defence mechanisms, and the benefit of both rerolls AND focus without having to soak a stress token.

Wes could get shot down. It happens. Wes could one shot his target. It happens. Wes and Wedge could find themselves unable to engage the same target. It happens. Wedge could find himself stressed. It happens.

In ALL of the above cases, Opportunist on Wedge becomes effectively redundant, for one turn at least. Predator, on the other hand, remains usable and effective. Opportunist can potentially see one or two uses a game, max. Predator will see use every single time you open fire. SImple as that.

Neither of you have addressed the point that Opportunist is situational and Predator is not. Wedge with Predator still gets all the benefits of Wes stripping tokens for him - i.e. no defence mechanisms, and the benefit of both rerolls AND focus without having to soak a stress token.

Wes could get shot down. It happens. Wes could one shot his target. It happens. Wes and Wedge could find themselves unable to engage the same target. It happens. Wedge could find himself stressed. It happens.

In ALL of the above cases, Opportunist on Wedge becomes effectively redundant, for one turn at least. Predator, on the other hand, remains usable and effective. Opportunist can potentially see one or two uses a game, max. Predator will see use every single time you open fire. SImple as that.

Alpha Strike power in this game is huge. It's benefit on round one of fire is not in any way situational given the PS of the pilots involved. And that's where this build shines. It has an intense Alpha strike.

In almost any game, at least one enemy ship will not fire before it is destroyed. That matters. You are trying to build a powerful and versatile Wedge, and you are ignoring the build that we are discussing to do it. With Wes on the table, Opportunist is much better. If you want a Predator Wedge (and I can see why you do), you shouldn't be spending 30 points on Wes.

In almost any game, at least one enemy ship will not fire before it is destroyed. That matters. You are trying to build a powerful and versatile Wedge, and you are ignoring the build that we are discussing to do it. Wit Wes on the table, Opportunist is much better. If you want a Predator Wedge (and I can see why you do), you shouldn't be spending 30 points on Wes.

Exactly. That's the key to this build. In fact, if that doesn't happen, you're probably in trouble, because X-Wings aren't exactly super tanky.

While Predator is surely better than Opportunist generally, the latter is better for the ridiculous Alpha Strike we are trying to achieve with this build.

Since we've more or less exhausted the Predator v. Opportunist debate (and I think we can all agree that both are viable in this build and others), I'd be interested in hearing opinions on what would be toughest for this list to beat, assuming the double Opportunist build.

My gut is that swarms could be a bit of a problem, but possibly also a 2 or 3 large ship build. Even with all the firepower we have in the Alpha Strike, we probably aren't going to take down a Falcon (especially if it's Chewie).

Given that this is the case, do we focus instead on bringing down the support ships first?

Also - how do we think this would fare against Phantoms? My gut says extremely well, given the ridiculous high PS firepower of Wes and Wedge, but I haven't actually played against a Phantom yet so I don't really have a good feel for how they work.

A 1 Dice upgrade will never add more than .75 hits, and rarely that. Even HLC at range 3 doesn't once you factor in agility.

Exception: If the attacker has Focus + TL, or Keyan:

.... who could, by the way, make an excellent substitution for either Wedge or or Etahn. Post Rebel-Aces or casual games only, of course.

A 1 Dice upgrade will never add more than .75 hits, and rarely that. Even HLC at range 3 doesn't once you factor in agility.

Exception: If the attacker has Focus + TL, or Keyan:

.... who could, by the way, make an excellent substitution for either Wedge or or Etahn. Post Rebel-Aces or casual games only, of course.

Fair enough. That adds about .9 damage. Farlander is going to be nasty with Opportunist and a TL. He outdamages Wedge... Yipes.

Against a TIE swarm, you will definitely kill a TIE before it can fire, but you will be lucky to kill two. It can happen (it did happen to my swarm at Regionals), but it is unlikely. Your opponent will still have 5-7 ships on the board against your three. Wes will likely be the first target because he is relatively easy to kill, he doubly buffs your other attacks (opens up Opportunist and the green dice won't be modified), and he is the best defensive ship you have since he can debuff your opponent's offense. You have to make the most of him while he's alive, but this is really an uphill fight. At Regionals, I had a 5-fighter 1-interceptor swarm against Wes, Ibtisam+HLC+Opportunist, and Biggs. It came down to Lt. Lorrir vs. Wes, and I probably only won because of some early mistakes that my opponent made. Long story short: it's a bad matchup, but not an impossible one.

Beware of any ship with Recon Specialist or ones that are using Push the Limit to Focus/Evade. Wes can only strip one token, and the other will block Opportunist. In those cases, I think I would be inclined to try to wipe out whatever ships you can use Opportunist on, even if they are less powerful, because it makes the most of your own synergy. Action passers can have the same effect; target them first.

I expect that you will hit large ships very, very hard because you are able to make the most of consecutive 4-die attacks (Recon Specialist/double action shenanigans notwithstanding).

You should tear up Phantoms provided that (1) you have them in arc and (2) they aren't packing a Recon Specialist or using Focus and Stygium Particle Accelerator in the same round. Range 3 is actually your friend as far as arcs go since it covers so area; you are more likely to have shots with two or three of your ships before it closes. Sigma Squadron pilots will always be lower skill than you. That means that they will either be decloaked when you fire (even with Advanced Cloaking Device) or cloaked and not shooting back. Depending on initiative, the Shadows may fire before Etahn, but Wes followed up by Wedge should usually be enough that Etahn is looking for a different target anyway. Wedge will always shoot before Echo, and Wes will always shoot before Whisper. Wedge will often shoot before Whisper can cloak as well. In any case, if you have stripped the tokens, the extra two dice don't count for much. The Phantom's best defense against you will be to slip your arcs entirely, and it will be your job to prevent that.

Ordnance is usually a good way to kill a linchpin (in your case, Wes), but Wes can remove a blue target lock, and if several ships are setting up missile attacks, they will not have focus or evade tokens, so hopefully you can mitigate two missile shots in at least the first round.

Neither of you have addressed the point that Opportunist is situational and Predator is not. Wedge with Predator still gets all the benefits of Wes stripping tokens for him - i.e. no defence mechanisms, and the benefit of both rerolls AND focus without having to soak a stress token.

Wes could get shot down. It happens. Wes could one shot his target. It happens. Wes and Wedge could find themselves unable to engage the same target. It happens. Wedge could find himself stressed. It happens.

In ALL of the above cases, Opportunist on Wedge becomes effectively redundant, for one turn at least. Predator, on the other hand, remains usable and effective. Opportunist can potentially see one or two uses a game, max. Predator will see use every single time you open fire. SImple as that.

Though I know what you mean, I did address that it is situational(after a fashion)..I said that in most cases I'd favor Predator over Opportunist in a vacuum, but in this list, where you want to hit as hard as possible as early as possible to gain a numerical advantage your opponent can't recover from, Opportunist (which you should be able to use at least twice before having to make the harder decision to use it or not) is the way to go, imo.

Wes shoots first, gets 3 attack dice (with TL or focus) and removes a token. One hit gets changed to a critical. Then Wedge shoots with Opportunist, getting 4 attack dice (with TL or focus), against a target with -1 agility and no tokens. And one of Wedge's hits is a crit!

What is changing a hit to a crit? I don't see it. Also with Wedge--whye is one of his hits a crit?

Nevermind--it's E'tahn's ability. Can't figure out how to delet a post.

Keyan is definitely Wes' best buddy with opportunist.

I won a local casual tourney on Sunday flying this:

Jake Farrell (35)
A-Wing (24), A-Wing Test Pilot (0), Proton Rockets (3), Lone Wolf (2), Autothrusters (2), Opportunist (4)

Keyan Farlander (33)
B-Wing (29), Opportunist (4)

Wes Janson (32)
X-Wing (29), R3-A2 (2), Veteran Instincts (1)

If you want Etahn in the mix, try this:

Keyan Farlander (33)
B-Wing (29), Opportunist (4)

Etahn A’baht (37)
E-Wing (32), R2 Astromech (1), Opportunist (4)

Wes Janson (30)
X-Wing (29), Veteran Instincts (1)

That's one scarily tricked-out Jake Farrell.

...never mind.

That's one scarily tricked-out Jake Farrell.

Indeed. It can be challenging to get the timing right, but hitting a token-less enemy ship with a 6-dice proton rocket with focus and Lone Wolf reroll is a thing of true beauty. In the tourney I just played, I got it off 3 games out of 4, each time resulting in a kill.