Interesting read. (Outside link)

http://www.afewmaneuvers.com/_/afm-articles/x-wing/meta-analysis-regionals-results-and-wave-4-r178

Based on successful numbers taken from the article does this spell a needed change in the game mechanic? I know there are many other matches that go unrecorded. For example I have had pretty good luck with a 5I, TIE Interceptor wedge and diagonal line.

I know Lt Blount with cluster will be a good swarm buster with Wave 4 and the TIE Defender and Phantom have yet to make their marks. But if this ends up being a trend, will FFG end up making new rules or game dynamics to make more variety in the win percentages?

For example:

- Release of more Area of Effect (AOE) weapons.

- Possible piloting extra cost for each pilot over every X ship.

- Instead of list tournaments. Start creating "Iron Chef"-like tournaments. Such as all rebels have to use 1 HWK or Imperials have to fly at least 1 TIE Advance in their lists?

- Create Ships that can do "ramming" damage or Kamikazee type ships.

- Arena type tournaments where instead of points you can use 3 ships of the same size/type as your opponent. Loading them out as they are fully capable.

I know folks talk about what new ship will change the game, but it doesn't look like that is happening. Unless wave 4 makes some HUGE impact, I can only see changing the dynamic to try and create some more variety in the winners circle and encouraging breaking from the same old same old.

People in my area were discussing this article when it came out. I think the main point of the game is to have fun, and tournament play is only secondary. I have no problem with TIE swarms running all over the "meta." It's just like the movies. I think it would be a shame if it ever came to a point where people say, "7 TIE fighters? You're crazy; that's never going to work!"

Granted, a competitive player may feel hampered because their creative efforts go unrewarded at tournaments. I can totally understand that. In my local group hardly anybody plays the TIE swarm because we love variety too much. (Oh, there is one guy who almost always runs triple Bounty Hunters, and that has given us a lot of fits trying to beat it). The TIE swarm is just another list archetype you have to be prepared for.

I honestly don't think the TIE swarm is going anywhere, and I'm not sure there's a strong rationale for why it should.

It's a really smart article, although I'm not surprised. Some thoughts, in no particular order:

(*) Even though they're winning well over half (depending on which set of numbers you use), swarms are actually still coming down off their streak of winning nearly every major event for the first couple of waves.

(*) Part of the problem--or, maybe, "problem"--is that the only really bad matchup for a swarm is another swarm, which means swarms struggle when there are lots of swarms in the metagame and shine when there aren't very many. So the late Wave 3 increase in the number and variety of competitive list archetypes, somewhat paradoxically, is actually good for swarms.

(*) I think Wave 4 will make a huge impact. As the article suggests, Phantoms will make a difference once the community starts to get really well acquainted with them--I've seen a well-flown Echo demolish the remaining 5 TIEs out of a 6-TIE swarm all by herself, although it was an untimed match and the defending player wasn't sure yet how to best to approach the Phantom problem.

(*) Predator is an attractive upgrade if the PS1-2 clause doesn't turn on. When it does turn on, Predator becomes an unbelievably good upgrade, and it's fairly strong evidence that FFG is deliberately pushing back on the prevalence of low-PS ships in the metagame.

(*) Rebel swarms are going to be a thing in Wave 4, which is relevant because (e.g.) an XXXZZZ list has a lot of the same strengths as a standard Imperial swarm and also has a fairly good matchup against that Imperial swarm. It also doesn't get anything in particular out of clumping together, which means it has a lot more flexibility in deployment and maneuvering.

(*) Okay, seriously, Predator again: one Wave 4 list I'm seriously considering is two Greens + Predator + Assault Missiles and two Blues. That will put a very serious dent in a swarm or four Rebels with Biggs, although it wouldn't be my first choice to field against three Imperial ships with a Phantom.

The past couple releases FFG has gradually been releasing things that will discourage swarms without needing any massive changes. Gradual shifts in the meta, that is the ticket.

Personally, I think the current meta is far too stale. Low PS skill, generic ship swarms are such a yawn fest.

They need to start making named pilots that are actually by far better then their generic counterparts.

Like howlrunner is to a Tie, Han is to the YT etc..

Personally, I think the current meta is far too stale. Low PS skill, generic ship swarms are such a yawn fest.

Predator is a thing.

They need to start making named pilots that are actually by far better then their generic counterparts.

Like howlrunner is to a Tie, Han is to the YT etc..

You haven't noticed that trend already, though? The Imperial Aces pilots generally have better abilities and are about a point cheaper than the original Interceptor pilots. The Rebel Aces pilots generally have better abilities, and are about a point cheaper, than the original A-wing and B-wing pilots. The named Defender pilots are very good, and a point cheaper than they "should" be given the typical FFG cost structure.

I've noticed the attempt. But I don't think its actually been accomplished yet.

People are already talking about how both defender pilots are good but too expensive. Or the Ewing pilots for that matter.

Then you look at wave 5 and a large ship with zero evades? Swarms will eat that alive yet its going to be a nasty counter for ships like the phantom and int.

The point reduction in aces etc, doesn't change that. Let's be honest, named pilots were outright too expensive for what they offer. 1 or 2 pts just isnt enough for most of them. They had no choice but to lower the cost.

It just seems like 1 step forward, 2 steps back.

Assault missiles have been around forever. Very few get played as it often misses and turns into dead points. On the a average of 8% of points dedicated to Upgrades and only 2.5% of that 8% being assault missiles. So you will often go entire events never seeing the current swarm stopper. Now in the new Meta Lieutenant Blount could have an impact as well as ships carrying Munitions Failsafe. We also do have Predator bringing hope to even the playing field Vs the Swarm.

Even the best Phantom builds piggy back on a mini-swarm to allow the Phantom to wreak havoc. Howlrunner is the catalyst that makes the Swarms function. Along with the rule change for modified wins going down to 12 (which I believe is a mistake). 12 points does not accurately predict the outcome of a match if played out. I know a lot of people are hot for the Phantom and it will shape the mata but I also don't think it will define it.

Tie Swarms will remain the king of X-Wing tournament play for awhile. Mainly because most peoples answer to the Phantom Menace just dies to the Swarm. I have only found one build so far that has both a great game Vs the swarm and a good match Vs the Phantoms and it contains Etahn. Making sure every hit that lands is a crit severely hampers the Swarm. With so many face up cards hitting the Ties you have less work to do to remove them from play.

We have only dipped our toes into the wave 4 meta. By the time we get use to the water along comes Rebel Aces with the other broken ship Keyan Farlander as some have claimed. Not far behind the crazy B is wave 5 and whatever else FFG is hiding behind the curtain. So we can all just sit back and enjoy the ride!

I don't think predator is the answer to swarms, as it is mostly restricted to expensive upgrade-laden ships. For rebels, you are always on a knife edge of whether you have 3 or 4 ships. 3 ships is always susceptible to swarms and 4 ships often compromises on potential swarm busting meta because points prevent taking many upgrades. Z-95's may help in that regard.

There is meta out there (well ok there is assault missiles), but enough people choose to ignore it. It's like herd immunity, if everyone takes an assault missile then swarms go extinct. If not enough do then swarms thrive. Luckily, a lot of people don't play them for a variety of reasons. But because they aren't prolific people don't bother metaing them. Vicious cycle continues.

As an aside, I think the bigger threat to the meta is the assault missile alpha strike lists (for both Rebs and Imps). They are really hard to meta and playing well against them is still a coin flip whether you can beat them before they can cripple you first.

I think it is still a little too early to state what the best Phantom builds are. Wave 4 hasn't been out that long, and despite the pre-release, I think there still needs to be time to adjust. We are still in the wonderful discovery phase.

As for the swarm, it really isn't surprising. The change in the tournament rules allowed TIE swarms to get full wins in a mirror match, thus letting them proliferate. And the Wave 4 anti-swarm stuff hadn't come out yet. We have Blount, super cheap Z-95s for missile carriers, the Advanced Cloaking Device on the Phantom, and Predator. And to really echo Vorpal Sword, dear lord Predator. Get that on one of your elite pilots, and they are going to start eating those lowly pilots for lunch. I didn't get to use Rexlar's ability very much vs the Bombers and Bandits I faced on Sun. Because I was already getting enough hits to kill them thanks to Predator. Against those low level mooks, it is just as good as a free Target Lock.

How different is it when its an untimed match?

Would that make the swarm harder to win?

Maybe an increase in time by 15 minutes and reducing the tournaments to something like 3 rounds a day would fare better. 2 day tournaments maybe.

You can't have untimed rounds in a tournament game. There is a reason why FFG allows stores to adjust the time. It is due to the real world issues of stores running tournaments.

I'm a total and complete noob and maybe I'm misunderstanding, but reading the article it almost seems like tourny play should feature weight classes. Something like Lightweight for swarm players (no ship costing more than 20) Heavyweight for lists using the big ships and Middleweight for everything else.