So I know this has been posted before many times but I think it may need another review since wave 5 came out. So I know ffg reuses art on their cards and that ships that show up don't necessarily mean they will be produced. However there was a lot of naysayers with the outmaneuver card showing a yt-2400 and people saying the card means nothing and yet a yt-2400 is produced. Now I'm not sure how many cards have been like this bit from memory I think at least 3 I could be wrong. Anyways with the recent revelation of wave 5 do most people still agree that artwork on cards is meaningless?

Amazing hahaha good one!

Did the Decimator show up in any cards? Or the Phantom?

The YT-2400 isn't really a surprise. There are distinct subsets of the EU - Shadows, Zahn, XvT, etc - that are more or less likely to show up. Nobody's astonished to see the TIE Defender, or the Headhunter, but I can't remember either of them getting previews.

There are four categories I see in the grid:

1. Expected ships that showed up in prior art

2. Expected ships that didn't show up in prior art

3. Unexpected ships that showed up in prior art

4. Unexpected ships that didn't show up in prior art

"Expected" is obviously open for debate, but proof of the "They're hinting" theory relies on Group 3. And honestly, so far I can't think of any examples of it. Everything is in 1, 2, or 4. Until we get solid examples of 3, there's really nothing there.

I think you can break it down into the following:

1. Artists are likely to use popular ships in their artwork because people recognise them.

2. Game designers are likely to release popular ships as they think they will sell well.

3. It is highly likely that the above two points will cause an overlap where you see ships that will be released in the future because they are popular, on artwork in earlier cards.

Did the Decimator show up in any cards? Or the Phantom?

The YT-2400 isn't really a surprise. There are distinct subsets of the EU - Shadows, Zahn, XvT, etc - that are more or less likely to show up. Nobody's astonished to see the TIE Defender, or the Headhunter, but I can't remember either of them getting previews.

There are four categories I see in the grid:

1. Expected ships that showed up in prior art

2. Expected ships that didn't show up in prior art

3. Unexpected ships that showed up in prior art

4. Unexpected ships that didn't show up in prior art

"Expected" is obviously open for debate, but proof of the "They're hinting" theory relies on Group 3. And honestly, so far I can't think of any examples of it. Everything is in 1, 2, or 4. Until we get solid examples of 3, there's really nothing there.

All very true but I wouldn't expect them to put all their upcoming ships on cards. However they could sneak a few in here and there and to me that seems like a possibility. I'm not saying I agree that cards are showing upcoming ships I'm just saying I could see it being possible.

I think the arguement goes like this

Wave 1: Swarm Tactics show the Falcon, the Falcon was in Wave 2.

Wave 2: Homing Missiles show a Tie Bomber, TBs were in Wave 3.

Wave 3: Roark Garnet has something that could be an E-Wing (if you squint hard) shooting at him, E-Wing is in Wave 4.

Wave 4: Outmaneuver has the Outrider on it. The Outrider is in Wave 5

The reason that this is signifigant is that oustide of capital ships and the odd Tie Fighter and X-Wing, the only ships that appear on cards in a wave are the ships that are in the wave itself except in one instance in each wave (see my list above). Ion Cannon Turret shows Y-Wing, Blaster turret shows the Crow, Auto Blaster is shown on a B-Wing while the other cannons are shown on the Slave I. Push the Limit shows an A-Wing and Interceptor and a Tie Fighter.

Now its hardly an airtight case, and it seems that it might be a thing, but its just as likely may not be a thing either.

I suggest whatever makes you happiest is the best answer. I choose to be skeptical but look to see if it happens again in the hope that it is true.

I think the arguement goes like this

Wave 1: Swarm Tactics show the Falcon, the Falcon was in Wave 2.

Wave 2: Homing Missiles show a Tie Bomber, TBs were in Wave 3.

Wave 3: Roark Garnet has something that could be an E-Wing (if you squint hard) shooting at him, E-Wing is in Wave 4.

Wave 4: Outmaneuver has the Outrider on it. The Outrider is in Wave 5

The reason that this is signifigant is that oustide of capital ships and the odd Tie Fighter and X-Wing, the only ships that appear on cards in a wave are the ships that are in the wave itself except in one instance in each wave (see my list above). Ion Cannon Turret shows Y-Wing, Blaster turret shows the Crow, Auto Blaster is shown on a B-Wing while the other cannons are shown on the Slave I. Push the Limit shows an A-Wing and Interceptor and a Tie Fighter.

Now its hardly an airtight case, and it seems that it might be a thing, but its just as likely may not be a thing either.

I suggest whatever makes you happiest is the best answer. I choose to be skeptical but look to see if it happens again in the hope that it is true.

The ship in the background of Roark's art is a Kihraxz fighter , not an E-wing. No ship from Wave 4 showed up in artwork from any previous wave.

Basically, this theory relies on confirmation bias and wishful thinking.

I think the arguement goes like this

Wave 1: Swarm Tactics show the Falcon, the Falcon was in Wave 2.

Wave 2: Homing Missiles show a Tie Bomber, TBs were in Wave 3.

Wave 3: Roark Garnet has something that could be an E-Wing (if you squint hard) shooting at him, E-Wing is in Wave 4.

Wave 4: Outmaneuver has the Outrider on it. The Outrider is in Wave 5

The reason that this is signifigant is that oustide of capital ships and the odd Tie Fighter and X-Wing, the only ships that appear on cards in a wave are the ships that are in the wave itself except in one instance in each wave (see my list above). Ion Cannon Turret shows Y-Wing, Blaster turret shows the Crow, Auto Blaster is shown on a B-Wing while the other cannons are shown on the Slave I. Push the Limit shows an A-Wing and Interceptor and a Tie Fighter.

Now its hardly an airtight case, and it seems that it might be a thing, but its just as likely may not be a thing either.

I suggest whatever makes you happiest is the best answer. I choose to be skeptical but look to see if it happens again in the hope that it is true.

The ship in the background of Roark's art is a Kihraxz fighter , not an E-wing. No ship from Wave 4 showed up in artwork from any previous wave.

Basically, this theory relies on confirmation bias and wishful thinking.

I am in agreement with you overall, I think you need to squint until your eyes are closed before it looks like an E-Wing.

I just think its not that important if its true or not and telling people that have a different interpretation of the facts that they have confirmation bias is needlessly dismissive, when you consider the stakes at hand.

I just think its not that important if its true or not and telling people that have a different interpretation of the facts that they have confirmation bias is needlessly dismissive, when you consider the stakes at hand.

No, it's exactly as dismissive as it should be because it's textbook confirmation bias. We haven't seen any "preview" ships that weren't incredibly obvious choices for future waves, so there is no justification for trying to build some kind of pattern around the art.

I just think its not that important if its true or not and telling people that have a different interpretation of the facts that they have confirmation bias is needlessly dismissive, when you consider the stakes at hand.

"When you consider the stakes at hand"?

What stakes, exactly, are those?

The reason that this is signifigant is that oustide of capital ships and the odd Tie Fighter and X-Wing, the only ships that appear on cards in a wave are the ships that are in the wave itself except in one instance in each wave (see my list above). Ion Cannon Turret shows Y-Wing, Blaster turret shows the Crow, Auto Blaster is shown on a B-Wing while the other cannons are shown on the Slave I. Push the Limit shows an A-Wing and Interceptor and a Tie Fighter.

So... the cards in wave tend to relate to the ships in that wave... and the art on those cards tends to show the ships in that wave... So the art on the cards that relate to a ship tend to show that ship... Shocking!! And that's before we consider the list which breaks that mold: Opportunist, Targeting Computer, FCS, Deadeye, VI, Decoy, Predator, Royal Guard Pilot, Lorrir, Dagger Squadron, Roark... It's a nontrivial list that's a lot more than "the odd Tie Fighter and X-wing".

Sorry, there's just nothing there. The only real surprises in the releases so far have been the HWK-290, the TIE Phantom, and now the Decimator. None of these was hinted at in any prior art.

If you truly want to know what's coming, don't look at the X-wing art - scour the LCG art. It can vary which comes first, but FFG obviously has preferences for certain elements of the EU over others, and those elements show up in both games. Dark Forces. Shadows of the Empire. Thrawn. All these pieces make appearances in both games, often with reused art. That's your trend - not some habit of sticking secret messages in the art.

Cards don't mean a thing. FFG freely shares art between their three (now five) Star Wars games, and it being Star Wars, Star Wars ships appear in them. Of course the TIE bomber and the Millenium Falcon showed up in art. Did you expect them to go with art with X-wings and TIE fighters only? People who believe card art is prophetic are ignoring all the stuff that hasn't shown up and doesn't fit in order to protect their theory.

Besides, a hell of a lot of their art is sourced rather than made. I take it people recognise Marksmapship's, for example. Or Prototype Pilot's.

I just think its not that important if its true or not and telling people that have a different interpretation of the facts that they have confirmation bias is needlessly dismissive, when you consider the stakes at hand.

No, it's exactly as dismissive as it should be because it's textbook confirmation bias. We haven't seen any "preview" ships that weren't incredibly obvious choices for future waves, so there is no justification for trying to build some kind of pattern around the art.

As the man says, it's literally the definition of confirmation bias: evidence which confirms the hypothesis is noted as significant, while disconfirming evidence is downplayed or not perceived. Using your list, there are three expansion ships that have been "foretold", which means there are nine that weren't. There are also ships that have been "foretold" that are extremely unlikely to appear in the game, including a few capital ships* and a Yevethan fighter.

(*Not the local bulk cruisers, mind you--I'm talking about the big Corellian ships now.)

Pretty sure the phantom was in all of the wave 3 art.

to add to the confirmation bias -

Wave 0 (core) had X-wings and Tie fighters which showed up in wave 1 (That's got to mean something right?)
Daredevil shows a CR-90....

Ibtisam shows a mon calimari, and star destroyers are everywhere! wooo "Enormous ships" will be next!

Targetting computer shows the Deathstar trench. I'm allready making preparations to fit that house sized miniature into my gaming room...

Wave 4: Outmaneuver has the Outrider on it. The Outrider is in Wave 5

Engines on the ship painted on Outmaneuver are too wide for it to be the Outrider though.

Pretty sure the phantom was in all of the wave 3 art.

BUT the Phantom is also in all of the card art from Wave 1, so that muddies the waters a bit.

Pretty sure the phantom was in all of the wave 3 art.

BUT the Phantom is also in all of the card art from Wave 1, so that muddies the waters a bit.

The Phantom could be on most of the cards, but how would we konw if it were cloaked?

Pretty sure the phantom was in all of the wave 3 art.

BUT the Phantom is also in all of the card art from Wave 1, so that muddies the waters a bit.

The Phantom could be on most of the cards, but how would we konw if it were cloaked?

First rule of flying against Phantoms: Assume they are everywhere.

So I know this has been posted before many times but I think it may need another review since wave 5 came out. So I know ffg reuses art on their cards and that ships that show up don't necessarily mean they will be produced. However there was a lot of naysayers with the outmaneuver card showing a yt-2400 and people saying the card means nothing and yet a yt-2400 is produced. Now I'm not sure how many cards have been like this bit from memory I think at least 3 I could be wrong. Anyways with the recent revelation of wave 5 do most people still agree that artwork on cards is meaningless?

This is a wonderful example of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.