To all you statisticians out there - a little guidance please!
Leaving aside the offensive value of focus, when is it better to take an evade action over a focus action?
Under what circumstance(s) is one more likely to protect you than the other?
....?
Up to three green dice: Evade
Four or more green dice: Focus
Focus may fail to protect you at all or it may cancel several dice. Evade is guaranteed.
When I really-really need to survive and don't want to get srewed by dice, I take an evade action. Otherwise, I do as dvor say and take an evade up to three dice, then focus.
I don't have the link, but teamcovenant has an article on it I believe.
I think the math goes like this. Without focus you have a 3/8 chance on a single dice to get an evade. With focus that rises to 5/8. Since an evade token counts as having automatically rolled a succeful evade we can call the 'chance' to get one 8/8. This helps the coming math.
So if I'm not completely out of mind that should give us the following stats:
1 die without mods - 3/8 evade rolled
1 die with focus - 5/8 evade rolled
1 die with evade - 11/8 or rather 1 and 3/8 evade rolled
2 die without mods - 6/8 evade rolled
2 die with focus - 10/8 or rather 1 and 2/8 evade rolled
2 die with evade - 14/8 or rather 1 and 6/8 evade rolled
3 die without mods - 9/8 or rather 1 and 1/8 evade rolled
3 die with focus - 15/8 or rather 1 and 7/8 evade rolled
3 die with evade - 17/8 or rather 2 and 1/8 evade rolled
4 die without mods - 12/8 or rather 1 and 4/8 evade rolled
4 die with focus - 20/8 or rather 2 and 4/8 evade rolled
4 die with evade - 20/8 or rather 2 and 4/8 evade rolled
5 die without mods - 15/8 or rather 1 and 4/8 evade rolled
5 die with focus - 25/8 or rather 3 and 1/8 evade rolled
5 die with evade - 23/8 or rather 2 and 7/8 evade rolled
I really hope I'm right with this but if I am, it means that when rolling anything below 4 evade dice you are better off having an evade token.
Edited by MacrossVF1I think the math goes like this. Without focus you have a 3/8 chance on a single dice to get an evade. With focus that rises to 5/8. Since an evade token counts as having automatically rolled a succeful evade we can call the 'chance' to get one 8/8. This helps the coming math.
So if I'm not completely out of mind that should give us the following stats:
1 die without mods - 3/8 evade rolled
1 die with focus - 5/8 evade rolled
1 die with evade - 11/8 or rather 1 and 3/8 evade rolled
2 die without mods - 6/8 evade rolled
2 die with focus - 10/8 or rather 1 and 2/8 evade rolled
2 die with evade - 14/8 or rather 1 and 6/8 evade rolled
3 die without mods - 9/8 or rather 1 and 1/8 evade rolled
3 die with focus - 15/8 or rather 1 and 7/8 evade rolled
3 die with evade - 17/8 or rather 2 and 1/8 evade rolled
4 die without mods - 12/8 or rather 1 and 4/8 evade rolled
4 die with focus - 20/8 or rather 2 and 4/8 evade rolled
4 die with evade - 20/8 or rather 2 and 4/8 evade rolled
5 die without mods - 15/8 or rather 1 and 4/8 evade rolled
5 die with focus - 25/8 or rather 3 and 1/8 evade rolled
5 die with evade - 23/8 or rather 2 and 7/8 evade rolled
I really hope I'm right with this but if I am, it means that when rolling anything below 4 evade dice you are better off having an evade token.
Of course it's better when you roll two focuses. You know what would be even better? Rolling nothing but evades all the time.
Alas Murphy watches over us all, sneaky git that he is.
The above chart is obviously only based on statistical chances. The dice (and Murphy) never agree on that though.
An important part of this is the ships that have evade. We have A-Wings, Interceptors, and Ties as the primary point of discussion(Firesprays and the Falcon are a different situation.)
They all have 3 agility. A focus allows them to have a better chance to land an attack if they manage not to be attacked. This is especially important on Academy ties. If your Swarm picks all evades because they are statistically better on defense 1 or 2 of them will be used. The other 5 won't. But if two pick evades you're opponent will attack ships with focus. So Evading with ships at closer range and focuses at longer might be more beneficial. Focusing with all of them assures you the best damage output.
With Interceptors Evading is typically better, but having Evade and Focus if you can't arc dodge is best.
With A-Wings the same logic appies as ties because they are significantly more durable between crit resists, and being unthreatening.
Evade adds another dice with a guaranteed evade. Focus increases the chances of the dice you have.
It's like Hull Upgrade Versus Stealth Device. Evade and Hull Upgrade guarantee a blocked hit. Focus and Stealth Device risk blocking no hits at all but have a better chance of blocking multiple hits.
Essentially, Evade gives you an extra dice which has a 100% chance of rolling Evade. Focus increases the chances of all your dice. Evade's usually better but if you're on one hull and up against a four dice attack, blocking one hit might not cut it.
It's a situational call you have to make. Unless you PTL and take both.
Evade's usually better but if you're on one hull and up against a four dice attack, blocking one hit might not cut it.
On the other hand, if the attacker roll 4 hits and you have 3 defense dice, evade is your only chance of dodging the shot completely and live another day to rub your luck in the face of your opponent.
Also consider situational abilities...vs homing missiles taking an evade action might be a waste.
Evade's usually better but if you're on one hull and up against a four dice attack, blocking one hit might not cut it.
On the other hand, if the attacker roll 4 hits and you have 3 defense dice, evade is your only chance of dodging the shot completely and live another day to rub your luck in the face of your opponent.
Once again, it's situational thing. Often Evade or Focus can be a near blind gamble. Go with focus and you'll get blanks and one evade symbol short, and go with evade and you'll roll three eyes.
Edited by Lagomorphia
Evade's usually better but if you're on one hull and up against a four dice attack, blocking one hit might not cut it.
On the other hand, if the attacker roll 4 hits and you have 3 defense dice, evade is your only chance of dodging the shot completely and live another day to rub your luck in the face of your opponent.
Once again, it's situational thing. Often Evade or Focus can be a near blind gamble. Go with focus and you'll get blanks and one evade symbol short, and go with evade and you'll roll three eyes.
Man I hate rolling 2+ focus when I decided to take an evade action! It feels like Lady Luck is laughing at you directly in your face... B/@+(#.....