Math-wingers, a question. When it comes to attacking, can you place into order what is better between Target Lock, Focus, +1 Attack, -1 Agility, and stripping an Evade? I'm sure this has been hashed out in other threads but I'm curious among just these options. With cards like Predator, Outmaneuver, Targeting Computer Modification, Janson, and, well, Focus, these are increasingly becoming actual choices. I know it's even better to stack them on top of each other, but if you had to put them into single order?

In order:

1. Target Lock
2. Focus
3. -1 Agility
4. +1 Attack

Removing an evade isn't really an attack boost: Janson's ability really applies to the next attacker's damage, so it will often appear in conjunction with that pilot's action, and it also only works if the target would have spent a token on defense. If it were on this list, though, it would be #1.

It's also worth noting that target lock is better than focus only because it has a higher ratio of [crit] results to [hit] results. If you treat [crit] and [hit] results both as "successes" on the dice, TL and focus produce the same distribution.

EDIT: DraconPyrothayan reminds me that I should add an asterisk to all of this. The list is generally accurate for typical attack and defense values, but there are times where all four of those attack buffs crowd pretty closely together, and even times where the order starts to change.

I was just about to type up a post giving an off-the-top-of-my-head answer, but here comes Vorpal Sword with the definitive response, ha.

The problem here is that they vary.

Target Lock and Focus always have the same stats: a 50% increase in damage rolled. Target Lock is slightly more aggressive, as it can result in a {Crit}, and cannot be used defensively.

+1 Attack // -1 Agility being better or worse than TL/Focus depends entirely on how many dice you're throwing, and against how many.
Also, unlike Target Lock and Focus, these two options have a wider range of Outliers, even if they maintain the expected average.
(Example: Opportunist + Jan/Vader + Advanced Proton Torpedoes can theoretically 1-shot a Firespray-31. That isn't bloody likely, but still possible).

In order:

1. Target Lock
2. Focus
3. -1 Agility
4. +1 Attack

Removing an evade isn't really an attack boost: Janson's ability really applies to the next attacker's damage, so it will often appear in conjunction with that pilot's action, and it also only works if the target would have spent a token on defense. If it were on this list, though, it would be #1.

It's also worth noting that target lock is better than focus only because it has a higher ratio of [crit] results to [hit] results. If you treat [crit] and [hit] results both as "successes" on the dice, TL and focus produce the same distribution.

I would argue that there are situations in which a -1 Agility or a +1 Attack are better than a TL or a Focus.

To be fair, both involve a Turretless HWK at this point, but it's still there.

In order:

1. Target Lock
2. Focus
3. -1 Agility
4. +1 Attack

Removing an evade isn't really an attack boost: Janson's ability really applies to the next attacker's damage, so it will often appear in conjunction with that pilot's action, and it also only works if the target would have spent a token on defense. If it were on this list, though, it would be #1.

It's also worth noting that target lock is better than focus only because it has a higher ratio of [crit] results to [hit] results. If you treat [crit] and [hit] results both as "successes" on the dice, TL and focus produce the same distribution.

I would argue that there are situations in which a -1 Agility or a +1 Attack are better than a TL or a Focus.

To be fair, both involve a Turretless HWK at this point, but it's still there.

I should have added a caveat to that effect, and didn't: I gave fairly generalized answers, but there are definitely contexts in which my list would be in a very different order.

In order:

1. Target Lock
2. Focus
3. -1 Agility
4. +1 Attack

Removing an evade isn't really an attack boost: Janson's ability really applies to the next attacker's damage, so it will often appear in conjunction with that pilot's action, and it also only works if the target would have spent a token on defense. If it were on this list, though, it would be #1.

It's also worth noting that target lock is better than focus only because it has a higher ratio of [crit] results to [hit] results. If you treat [crit] and [hit] results both as "successes" on the dice, TL and focus produce the same distribution.

I would argue that there are situations in which a -1 Agility or a +1 Attack are better than a TL or a Focus.

To be fair, both involve a Turretless HWK at this point, but it's still there.

I should have added a caveat to that effect, and didn't: I gave fairly generalized answers, but there are definitely contexts in which my list would be in a very different order.

Good points. It's also worth noting target lock can transfer to the next round when it isn't used but is only useful on the ship it is on, while focus can be effective on defense (and on the target of your choice). So, the utility of each action is important to consider as well, as Draco hinted but didn't include that a target lock, if it goes unused for whatever reason, gives you an opportunity for an action or stacking the next round.

Don't you mean that an extra attack die is better than one less defense die on the defender (when attacking)?

I.e. 3 and 4 are swapped?

Don't you mean that an extra attack die is better than one less defense die on the defender (when attacking)?

I.e. 3 and 4 are swapped?

depends on their choice of defensive action

I agree w/ Vorpal's rankings for the most part. For the express purpose of maximum offense ignoring all other considerations, actions that increase hit probability per die outweigh modifying the number of dice in terms of generating consistent damage. So TL & Focus trump +atk and -agi. Between TL & Focus, both increase hit probability by the same value, but how they do it gives TL the edge. If a rookie w/ focus throws 3 blanks, he is SOL. If a rookie w/ TL throws 3 eyeballs, he can reroll them and generate on average 1-2 hits. Adding that to TLs increased probability of criticals (modest though it may be) puts TL on top.

MajorJuggler might be right though. Looking at -AG makes me think of Wedge and his reputation, but on second thought his power comes from stacking his innate ability w/ other attack modifying actions. My handy dandy damage chart says an unmodified 3atk vs 2agi has slightly lower expected damage than unmodified 4atk vs 3agi. The gap widens as the defender applies focus or evade.

Just a word aboud rerolls and howlrunner

Howlrunner and 4 TFs wil not give you 4 rerolls but more likely 3.
Think of it in sets.
2 of them will get one hit an one miss (=2 rerolls)

1 will miss on both dice (1 reroll)

1 will get 2 hits (no rerolls)

so the bonus is not +50% but +37,5

Looking at -AG makes me think of Wedge and his reputation, but on second thought his power comes from stacking his innate ability w/ other attack modifying actions.

This is correct. Wedge is awesome because he gets the -1 agility AND one or more additional offensive actions. Once you've already got a focus token other dice-modifying abilities start to suffer diminishing returns and additional dice (or fewer dice to roll against) become more valuable.

In order:

1. Target Lock
2. Focus
3. -1 Agility
4. +1 Attack

Removing an evade isn't really an attack boost: Janson's ability really applies to the next attacker's damage, so it will often appear in conjunction with that pilot's action, and it also only works if the target would have spent a token on defense. If it were on this list, though, it would be #1.

It's also worth noting that target lock is better than focus only because it has a higher ratio of [crit] results to [hit] results. If you treat [crit] and [hit] results both as "successes" on the dice, TL and focus produce the same distribution.

EDIT: DraconPyrothayan reminds me that I should add an asterisk to all of this. The list is generally accurate for typical attack and defense values, but there are times where all four of those attack buffs crowd pretty closely together, and even times where the order starts to change.

So... 3dice with TL are stronger than 4 dice without?

How does 3 dice with TL vs 4 dice Torp land?

I would also be i terested in the compare between 3 red plus TL vs 4 red. Torpedo damage.

3atk w/ TL or Focus vs proton torpedo(or concussion missile) favors the secondary weapon by about an extra .5 dmg across the range of defense setups, with the margin being wider on the lower defense end and narrowing as you get up to 4agi w/ focus or evade or 3agi with both. 3atk w/ TL & focus comes in a hair above a naked secondary weapon (between .1 and .2 higher expected damage) with a similar narrowing as defense improves.

So... 3dice with TL are stronger than 4 dice without?

That depends on the target.

Against 3+ dice with both focus and evade 4 red dice inflict marginally more damage. The extra damage is probably not worth 4 points (expose). Against a weaker defense 3 dice plus TL or focus are better.

How does 3 dice with TL vs 4 dice Torp land?

The torpedo is considerably better no matter what.

I disagree that it's "significantly" better. 3TL will roll 2.25 hits. PT/Conc will roll 2.68 hits. I'm not discussing damage at the moment since that's based on defenders + actions. But an average of .43 extra hits is not that magical, it only represents a 19% hit increase. However, at R3, this can be coupled with -1agi as well, so it's better on the damage front. With all of that said, 12.5% of the time, with a normal attack, you'll roll 3 natural hits, and therefore not spend your TL, so you can stack it next turn for TL+F (yielding 2.81 hits btw).

I'm not denying that you should cause more damage with a torp, I'm just saying that it's not a significant increase, and is often not worth the 4 points (assuming we're talking about an 3 attack ship...)

TLDR, 3TL = 2.25 hits, Proton/Conc = 2.68 hits.