In my opinion, the dial is what will make or break the ship. I hope the PS 6 pilot will hand out free Evades (since he did swoop in and save the Rogues if I recall). Depending on how good it is I might consider replacing the Bounty Hunter + RecSpec with a Defender in the Baron's Focus list.

You may be an elite TIE pilot, but if it's your first sortie in the defender then you would realistically not have a high skill in it. It's a different ship, after all. I imagine this is how such things are justified?

I guess. Still should be at a minimum a 3 or 4.

I don't think we will see too many all Tie-D lists. You won't have any room for an upgrade and still have less HPs then most rebel lists. I think it will go nicely with a group of Ties though, to swoop in a mop things up.

A focus token on 3 dice cancels(statistically) .75 damage over an unfocused attack. Not 1.3. (5/8)*3-(3/8)*3. That's a single extra hull.

The average number of eyes on 3 defense dice is indeed 0.75, but the average number of eyes on a single roll is not the same thing as the average value of a focus token. You don't usually spend focus tokens on results with 0 eyes (well, that's an assumption--I should say that I don't usually spend focus tokens on results with 0 eyes).

As a result, when you're looking at the average value of a focus token against multiple attacks, you average not over all possible results, but over the results where at least one eye appears. That's (1*0.4219 + 2*0.1406 + 3*0.0156) / (0.4219 + 0.1406 + 0.0156) = 1.2972.

Of course, you also have to account for the fact that you get at least one eye result only about 58% of the time. If you're attacked just once, that focus token turns out (not coincidentally) to be worth 58% * 1.3 = 0.75. But if you're attacked twice, you have an 82% chance to spend your focus token, and it's worth 82% * 1.3 = 1.1. If you're attacked three times, you have a 92% chance to spend it, and it's worth 92% * 1.3 = 1.2, and so on.

(This is why, incidentally, it's typically better to focus with 3 Agility than to evade if you're likely to be attacked multiple times.)

All of this math-wing, lest we lose the thread, is in support of the fact that the Defender's 3 Agility and 6 hit points are actually a lot more effective than the B-wing's 1 Agility and 8 hit points--almost twice as effective, under fairly typical circumstances.

Until we see the dial and elite pilots, and any Defender-specific upgrades that may exist, you can't possibly compare ships fairly. The B-Wing has, relatively, a **** dial with a lot of red. That red one turn may very well be the ONLY red on the dial since we know it has a white K turn and it may have the speed and maneuver closer to an Interceptor or A-Wing (making it the E-Wing's comparable). Some ships just do better at different PS levels; the low-level Defenders may never see the table while the high PS will. The B-Wings, for example, are seen as Blues/Daggers MUCH more than you see Ibitsam or Ten Numb (which is probably why you are seeing Farlander) as they price out better at low levels than souped-up high levels. The Defender might be the opposite, as a 6-health, 3-AGI ship that probably has a good dial gives me the warm and fuzzies for putting it into lists as a centerpiece/end-game ship.

Just way too early to tell, amigo

That's all in the strategy of the focus use. Typically, in my experience you get 1 evade off a focus. And it's usally giving you two evades total. The effectiveness of a focus on defense doesn't save the defender though. It's one more sign that the defender needs to preserve as much of its health as it can so you can't use it on offense reasonably. 3 unmodded attack isn't spectacular. Not when B-wings can have Fire Control System and Firesprays can have Recon Specialist. The Defender isn't nearly 8 points worth o defensively superior to a B-wing, and the B-wing has, personally, the third best dial in the game.(YT, A-wing/Interceptor, B-Wing. Moving fast is overrated and having 1 straight and a 1 hard(even a red one) is absolutley amazing in a dog fight. We'll see if the defender is really worth it, but just 2 agility vs 2 shields is not an 8 point trade.

You started out saying that the Defender was "almost exactly the same" as a B-wing and that the Defender had "barely better survivability". Those are empirical claims, which I demonstrated fairly conclusively aren't true--because the Defender has almost twice the survivability of a B-wing. Now you're saying that's all irrelevant, because it just means you're spending your focus defensively.

The reason I brought up the defensive comparison was that you and the OP both agreed that increasing Agility from 1 to 3 just isn't worth that much. It turns out you're wrong, but instead of acknowledging that and re-evaluating your position, you've just shifted the goalposts: now in order to justify its cost, the Defender has to be able to defend itself against token-supported attacks without spending tokens itself, and do so through multiple rounds of concentrated fire from powerful attackers. Is there any ship in the game that lives up to that standard?

Look, I'm concerned that FFG might have been overly conservative in the way they valued the Defender's white K-turn. I think the ship's value could very well fall 1-2 points short of its cost once the metagame has settled--ending up sort of the same way as the A-wing did, as a marginal ship useful in a particular role but not as a general competitor. What I'm not going to do, though, is make a lot of overconfident statements reasoning beyond the available evidence and concluding that it can't possibly be any good.

Aye... As others have said, it's unfair to judge the ship before everything is known. Before W3 came out, everyone thought the shuttle was going to completely dominate. 3/1/5/5 for 21 points!?!?! And then W3 hit, and people thought that it was too expensive. Now we've come to realize that its a very good price for it, and it combos well with other upgrades, but by itself isn't worth running at 21 points.

The defender is going to go through the same thing. I'm pretty sure that its FFGs way of trying to fix the interceptor. People complain it's not reliable because it can get one shotted.. so Imp Aces allows them to equip HU + SU to give it 5hp for 25 points... 3/3/4/1 with one of the best dials seems like a steal at 25 points to me... Which is probably why it's limited to PS6+... otherwise you'd see 4 of those ships all the time and it'd get boring. So now you have 29 points for PS6 at 3/3/4/1 w/ EPT slot... Still seems solid to me, but people want to do other things with that mod slot, so interceptors still dont' get the love that FFG wants to give them because they're dead in the water when they do a K turn and are stressed and can't action (typically twice since everyone seems to run PTL on them).

So... How does FFG fix that? By coming out with a new ship that has a white K turn. And to make it slightly different, they put it at 3/3/3/3. This thing will be one tough cookie to kill... Especially if you start putting enhancements on it. So, lets limit the dial a bit on close range, make the 1 turn red so the defender will use fly by tactics and get behind the enemy ships... Seems logical to me.

Of all of the ships coming out in W3, I'm most worried about facing the Defender. The phantom I feel will be gimicky, but once you get a good shot on it, it should cripple. The Z95 is only fearful from the shear number of missiles that can be shooting at you... but there's always ways around alpha strikes. The E wing also scares me a bit as well... But with 1 hull less (I will probably find myself running it with HU) it will die faster anyways, though the evade token makes up for that short coming, so it'll be just as survivable as the Defender... But I don't think it'll have anywhere near the same dial as the defender. As such, I think you'll see more people having good shots at it... so it will likely have to spend its actions to maneuver. So now it can't use its actions for that evade token, and it'll hit the dust faster that way.

My response to all this speculation?

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."

--Sherlock Holmes

We don't know the Defender's dial, nor do we know what the pilot abilities are. And even if we did, the best we could really do is make predictions; until you see it in play, you just don't know how it will work. A year ago, everyone in the local group was worried that the shuttle and hawk would be overpowered, and that APTs would instantly murder everything on the field.

That's all in the strategy of the focus use. Typically, in my experience you get 1 evade off a focus. And it's usally giving you two evades total. The effectiveness of a focus on defense doesn't save the defender though. It's one more sign that the defender needs to preserve as much of its health as it can so you can't use it on offense reasonably. 3 unmodded attack isn't spectacular. Not when B-wings can have Fire Control System and Firesprays can have Recon Specialist. The Defender isn't nearly 8 points worth o defensively superior to a B-wing, and the B-wing has, personally, the third best dial in the game.(YT, A-wing/Interceptor, B-Wing. Moving fast is overrated and having 1 straight and a 1 hard(even a red one) is absolutley amazing in a dog fight. We'll see if the defender is really worth it, but just 2 agility vs 2 shields is not an 8 point trade.

You started out saying that the Defender was "almost exactly the same" as a B-wing and that the Defender had "barely better survivability". Those are empirical claims, which I demonstrated fairly conclusively aren't true--because the Defender has almost twice the survivability of a B-wing. Now you're saying that's all irrelevant, because it just means you're spending your focus defensively.

The reason I brought up the defensive comparison was that you and the OP both agreed that increasing Agility from 1 to 3 just isn't worth that much. It turns out you're wrong, but instead of acknowledging that and re-evaluating your position, you've just shifted the goalposts: now in order to justify its cost, the Defender has to be able to defend itself against token-supported attacks without spending tokens itself, and do so through multiple rounds of concentrated fire from powerful attackers. Is there any ship in the game that lives up to that standard?

Look, I'm concerned that FFG might have been overly conservative in the way they valued the Defender's white K-turn. I think the ship's value could very well fall 1-2 points short of its cost once the metagame has settled--ending up sort of the same way as the A-wing did, as a marginal ship useful in a particular role but not as a general competitor. What I'm not going to do, though, is make a lot of overconfident statements reasoning beyond the available evidence and concluding that it can't possibly be any good.

As for people claiming the B-wing dial is bad, if it didn't have access to FCS and Advanced Sensors I would agree, but those make the B-wing capable of actions and red maneuvers in the same turn.

And we have all the data we need to argue if it is worth the stat line. And we know enough to have a fair assumption of the dial. At least enough to know that the first row of moves is the most valuable. It can be readily assumed to have red hard turns in each direction. Whites or Greens all through the two row. A white of green three forwards, and it doesn't have boost. Maybe one of the pilot abilities will make the ship worthwhile at 36-40 points. Maybe one of them will count green focus results as evades on each attack giving it the best survivability in the game. I wouldn't count on it though. The best we would get is that spending a focus during a defensive action applies to all rolls for the round, requiring action denial to kill it. Then maybe it would be playable for the points. But Defense dice suck and it clearly doesn't have the positioning ability of the Interceptor.(No Boost action.) I mean, in the E-wing thread the stats make it pretty clear that even at 7 agility an E-wing will get hit reliably. I have seen more interceptors downed in One attack despite SD than I care to think about. The Defender can pretty easily go down in two or three once a tournament, ruining your chances. The odds of a B-wing doing so are not noticably different.(and for two attacks require Ordnance or Range one shots.)

What I hope to see from the Defender is a dial that is so fast that its limiting, as opposed to so slow. It does have the white K-turn, which is a big deal. But, I want this, because we don't have it yet. Picture a ship with high agility, but no straight maneuver shorter than a 3. It has 3-5 straights, all green, and a white 4K. White banks at 2, Green Banks at 3, red hard turns at 1 and white hard turns at 3.

Complete off the wall, no grounds for this prediction. Point being this or something similar would make the Defender significantly different than any ship in the game so far, and it would back up my previous post about the Defender being designed as strictly a hit-and-run strike fighter. Your swarmlet jousts the enemy while your Defender runs loops around them, or K-turns back and forth, delivering a powerful 3-4 die attack each turn and nearly never being inside arc. The kind of ship that you have to deliberately pursue, you can't just fly straight at it. Similar in effect to a PtL interceptor, but different in gameplay and execution.

My response to all this speculation?

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."

--Sherlock Holmes

We don't know the Defender's dial, nor do we know what the pilot abilities are. And even if we did, the best we could really do is make predictions; until you see it in play, you just don't know how it will work. A year ago, everyone in the local group was worried that the shuttle and hawk would be overpowered, and that APTs would instantly murder everything on the field.

Well said Ailowynn.

Not sure why the comparison is being made with the B-Wing though. If there is anything that can be compared to the Defender at the moment, it would be the E-Wing. They both have similar stats and pricing (an E-Wing with Hull Upgrade is 30 points). If you factor in that they both can carry ordinance (Missile vs Torpedo, both of which have pluses and minuses). You end up with a Systems Upgrade, Astromech and Evade Action against a white K-Turn and cannon upgrade.

These are the only real facts that we have. The Defender dial will most likely be quicker but at the moment none of that is known. I'm more curious as to whether there will be much use for these ships since they are priced fairly high.

And we have all the data we need to argue if it is worth the stat line.

There's more to a ship than its stats. Namely, upgrades, dial, and strategies--how you can use it most effectively. With the B-Wing, its strategy is "go forward, shoot things, explode." That's how it's most effective, and that means that it won't survive more than a few rounds, so it isn't worth huge amounts of points. Could it be the same with the Defender? Yes. But we don't know that it will be. If it can survive until endgame while also flying offensively, it is definitely worth the points; and there's no evidence to show that this is or isn't the case. We can argue whether or not the stat line is better than any other ship's, but that's ultimately useless until we know more.

...But we really don't. We know one maneuver . One. From that, everyone assumes that it clearly won't be a good turner and will probably be a better high-speed ship and whatnot, but we have no evidence of that. I mean, you could have seen the B-Wing's red one-turn and said "well, it has a one-turn and the X-Wing doesn't; sure, that turn is red, but clearly this means that it is able to turn tighter than the X-Wing. It'll probably have green two-turns to show that; and because of that, the two-banks will also probably be green, and the two-straight. The three-speed maneuvers will probably be white." Saying that the dials will be roughly the same based on one maneuver is like saying that the A-Wing and Falcon have similar dials based on them both having a white one-turn. Or that the A-Wing and Y-Wing will be similar because they both have a green two-straight. It may very well turn out that the Defender is terrible, overpriced, and has a worse dial than any other ship in the game; but we don't know enough to make assumptions like this.

I don't find your evidence at all convincing though. It is still, barely more durable than a B-wing. If you cut out all focuses on defense. At that point it is still not offensively better than a B-wing. It is offensively on par with a B-wing. So you're either paying 30 points for a ship that is technically more durable than B-wing, but most of the time won't be significantly so, and can barely keep up with it offensively. For nearly a tenth of your team more in cost. Is it 30% better than a B-wing? No. Not at all. Now, i'm not saying the dial cannot make up for it. But I don't think it will. A White K-Turn is nice. I get that. But I don't see anything on the Defender Dial that can make up for 8 points. Not when it will have, at best, the same 1 speed manuevers as a B-wing. In fact I'm betting the Defender lacks a 1 Forward(I'll be highly amused if it's white K-turn is 1 speed, but I don't see it happening.

So your argument is really that everything I've said is irrelevant because a TIE Defender will "rarely" spend focus tokens on defense--even if every ship in the opponent's list is focusing fire on the Defender?

As for people claiming the B-wing dial is bad, if it didn't have access to FCS and Advanced Sensors I would agree, but those make the B-wing capable of actions and red maneuvers in the same turn.

The Systems Upgrade slot does indeed do a lot for the B-wing's dial. But adding upgrades to the B-wing diminishes its efficiency with respect to the Defender by quite a bit.

And we have all the data we need to argue if it is worth the stat line.

All we have are the cost and the stat line, and that is emphatically not enough. How different would the Falcon be without a white 1-turn? How valuable would the B-wing be if the red 1-turn were the only turn maneuver on its dial? How much better does the stop-0 maneuver make the Lambda?

And we know enough to have a fair assumption of the dial.

They really haven't yet spoiled enough for anyone to make any assumptions about the strength or weakness of the dial. Which maneuvers are red, and which are green, and how predictable does the combination make a stressed Defender? How maneuverable will it be at slow speeds, and how fast can it go? Perhaps most importantly, how often is the white K-turn going to be valuable--how often will it result in an action advantage over an opponent?

...I mean, in the E-wing thread the stats make it pretty clear that even at 7 agility an E-wing will get hit reliably.

The lesson of that comparison is, as I posted over there, not that Agility is useless but that the ability to modify dice is very powerful.

I have seen more interceptors downed in One attack despite SD than I care to think about.

If only we had an option for a ship that had the Interceptor's Attack and Agility, but had more hit points.

The Defender can pretty easily go down in two or three once a tournament, ruining your chances. The odds of a B-wing doing so are not noticably different.

There's a difference between what's possible and what's likely. The TIE Defender is one of the most durable ships in the game, and actually has very similar efficiency in terms of shots survived per point spent.

... Ships have fallen out of the meta as new ships release, but they haven't yet released any single completely uncompetitive ship.

I think the TIE Advanced crowd would beg to differ with you on that...

... Ships have fallen out of the meta as new ships release, but they haven't yet released any single completely uncompetitive ship.

I think the TIE Advanced crowd would beg to differ with you on that...

Meaning upon its release, it has its place in the game. At this point it is all but obsolete.

Vader still does well, thus the TIE Advanced is not completely uncompetitive. The fact that EVERY ship has representation on the store championship winning squad lists points to an amazing level of balance. Sure, some squads are rising to the top, but it isn't nearly as an issue as last year's epidemic of dual Falcons.

But, it is pretty clear to me that my idea of balance is not what other's are. Even if their view of balance is only going to get worse as more and more ships get released.

Vader still does well, thus the TIE Advanced is not completely uncompetitive. The fact that EVERY ship has representation on the store championship winning squad lists points to an amazing level of balance. Sure, some squads are rising to the top, but it isn't nearly as an issue as last year's epidemic of dual Falcons.

But, it is pretty clear to me that my idea of balance is not what other's are. Even if their view of balance is only going to get worse as more and more ships get released.

I hear ya on that one. I thought A wings were well priced for what they did. You'll never (still won't btw) see as many of them as you will X or B wings since they serve a niche flanking roll, that isn't a necessary part of a squad. Whereas the X/B are the backbone workhorse that pretty much every squad must have. So the fact that you saw 4:1 ratio seemed reasonable to me... But not to others. Oh well.

I understand that the Advanced serves a certain purpose, whether some would agree or disagree. i was more or less trying to be funny. I think there are more threads devoted to the Advanced (to fix, or to defend), then any other ship...or at least it seems like there are, which prompted that response from me.

I'm pretty much in the same boat as most. There is no point in making a judgment call until we know everything there is to know about the ship.

I would be shocked if the TIE Advanced (and maybe Bomber) doesn't get some love when the Imperials get a big ship the way the X-Wing/Y-Wing got some fun toys with the Rebel Transport. Utterly shocked. It would be a great way to shoe-horn in some "fixes" in a very similar fashion without a full-fledged Aces-type re-release. At that point, there would be literally no ship that would fall into the useless category, which would be outstanding for the game. Balance is great as is; this would just take it to the final level.

Honestly, I see why they did the cost reduction for the A-wing. How is it being used now, as a point filler to get up to 4-5 ships. Well, that roll is pretty much taken by the Z-95. I like the A-wing, and it does have fewer issues than the Advanced.

But the other 3 ships having issues does not discredit the usefulness of Vader. We still have 3 ships to see for the Defender. Yeah, the PS 1 doesn't seem all that impressive. But I need to play around with a white K-turn to get a better idea.

Even with Advanced Sensors, the B-Wing ends up stressed after a K-Turn. That means it can't do another red maneuver, or do a white if it wants an action. The Defender can flip and not only get an action, but not end stressed. It's also going to help if you get blocked. You can just do another K-Turn the next turn. No other ship can do that. A white K-Turn opens up a LOT of interesting options. It's impossible to judge based on the incomplete information released so far. The dial is critical. Trying it out a few rounds will be much more enlightening than complaining on a forum.

Even with Advanced Sensors, the B-Wing ends up stressed after a K-Turn. That means it can't do another red maneuver, or do a white if it wants an action. The Defender can flip and not only get an action, but not end stressed. It's also going to help if you get blocked. You can just do another K-Turn the next turn. No other ship can do that. A white K-Turn opens up a LOT of interesting options. It's impossible to judge based on the incomplete information released so far. The dial is critical. Trying it out a few rounds will be much more enlightening than complaining on a forum.

Garland we disagrees with you. And actually gets a benefit to doing so. Ridic pilot.

Even with Advanced Sensors, the B-Wing ends up stressed after a K-Turn. That means it can't do another red maneuver, or do a white if it wants an action. The Defender can flip and not only get an action, but not end stressed. It's also going to help if you get blocked. You can just do another K-Turn the next turn. No other ship can do that. A white K-Turn opens up a LOT of interesting options. It's impossible to judge based on the incomplete information released so far. The dial is critical. Trying it out a few rounds will be much more enlightening than complaining on a forum.

The biggest issue with Stress is action denial. With Advanced Sensors Stress does not do so unless you have to take a white manuever the turn after, meaning that thw stress is far from likely to cause action loss.

Even with Advanced Sensors, the B-Wing ends up stressed after a K-Turn. That means it can't do another red maneuver, or do a white if it wants an action. The Defender can flip and not only get an action, but not end stressed. It's also going to help if you get blocked. You can just do another K-Turn the next turn. No other ship can do that. A white K-Turn opens up a LOT of interesting options. It's impossible to judge based on the incomplete information released so far. The dial is critical. Trying it out a few rounds will be much more enlightening than complaining on a forum.

The biggest issue with Stress is action denial. With Advanced Sensors Stress does not do so unless you have to take a white manuever the turn after, meaning that thw stress is far from likely to cause action loss.

Honestly, I see why they did the cost reduction for the A-wing. How is it being used now, as a point filler to get up to 4-5 ships. Well, that roll is pretty much taken by the Z-95. I like the A-wing, and it does have fewer issues than the Advanced.

But the other 3 ships having issues does not discredit the usefulness of Vader. We still have 3 ships to see for the Defender. Yeah, the PS 1 doesn't seem all that impressive. But I need to play around with a white K-turn to get a better idea.

Think K-turn -> Barrel Roll.