As far as Hull Upgrade... there is ONLY one possible use for it, and that is on the HWK - to bring it's hull up to a value of 5, so the flechette torpedo won't stress it.
Good catch! 3 pts for another hull seems like a good idea when those things hit the game.
To get away from the all-consuming "Shield Upgrade/Hull Upgrade/Stealth Device" argument for a moment:
I'm pretty excited to run Soontir with Targeting Computer and PtL. Target Lock for an action, then push the limit for an extra action, get a focus token and then attack with TL and a focus. Great combo.
A Hull or Shield upgrade is also subject to the random-ness of the dice as well, as a Direct Hit to hull can always add an extra damage that renders your additional hull obsolete, or an Ion turret causes you to fly off the map, in which case shields/hull have no effect.
The extra agility performed better the vast majority of the time in my testings. I even have a video on my channel showing my methods and results. Stealth device is clearly the best survival modification available.
However, I can understand if someone would rather spend the points elsewhere, IE toward an extra ship or something. But clearly a shield upgrade is an awful waste of points UNLESS you are using r2d2 and/or draw their fire.
I highly recommend rolling the stealth device die separate from the other dice. And only roll it when you need it. More often than not, on high agility ships you won't need it. On low agility ships, it won't help.
Have you watched my video doing precisely that? I've proved that you DO need it. Sure sometimes it fails, or it ends up not making a difference, but more often than not, that last dice WAS the one that saved me.
Stealth on a 1 agility ship is a waste. Even if you could get sensor jammer to work every time, stealth isn't going to last more than 2 shots.
And if stealth lasts 2 shots, that is equivalent to 2 Shields, or 8 points considering the cost of a shield upgrade. How in the world could you possibly consider that a waste? Even if it only prevented a single point of damage, it's STILL better than a shield upgrade.
Because of math.
...
But in your math if you factor in averages....
As far as Hull Upgrade... there is ONLY one possible use for it, and that is on the HWK - to bring it's hull up to a value of 5, so the flechette torpedo won't stress it.
First - I have always said that the math doesn't take into account the psychological effects of whatever we're discussing - whether that be opportunist, sensor jammer, stealth device, or advanced proton torpedoes. Heck, I have a few builds where I put APTs on someone just because I want them to shoot him instead of my main target. Not saying these are competitive builds, but I'm all for playing mind games with my opponents.
So you want to talk averages then... So the first one doesn't last the first turn and does nada... the other lives 5 turns and lets say best case prevents 5 damage. The weighted probability of that happening is 8%... And that's assuming that the opponent only rolls 1 hit each attack. So then your overall damage saved is 5*.08 + 0 * .39 = .4 damage mitigated. Still not worth the 6 points.
5 damage prevented for 6 points, vs 2 shields, which would have been 2 damage prevented for 8 points.... how do you figure it isn't worth the 6 points?
I like high agility ships. A-wings and interceptors are my favorite ships in the game. I frequently equip them with stealth devices so I can get to 4 agility. I have yet to keep a stealth device beyond the first time the ship gets shot at. Every single time, the very first attack always hits and strips the SD (or just destroys the ship).
Not saying that they haven't been useful. Opponents may have changed target priorities based on the 4 agility and they may have keep a ship alive that would have otherwise been one-shoted, but it is getting kinda frustrating to loose it right away EVERY SINGLE TIME.
I like high agility ships. A-wings and interceptors are my favorite ships in the game. I frequently equip them with stealth devices so I can get to 4 agility. I have yet to keep a stealth device beyond the first time the ship gets shot at. Every single time, the very first attack always hits and strips the SD (or just destroys the ship).
Not saying that they haven't been useful. Opponents may have changed target priorities based on the 4 agility and they may have keep a ship alive that would have otherwise been one-shoted, but it is getting kinda frustrating to loose it right away EVERY SINGLE TIME.
This. This is the counter to your "what if it lasts on a B wing for 5 turns?" They're both exceedingly rare, and both can happen.
And as I've said, I am not accounting for the psychological effect that it has on the opponent. I'm just trying to better educate the masses so they do not fall prey and a victim to the psychological warfare game. What you do with your new found knowledge is your prerogative. Just realize, you might already be a victim of the SD psychological games that it's playing with YOU! *MWHWHWHAHAHAHAHAAAH*
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I am going to try a heavily modded Ibitsam tonight: elusiveness, Stealth and sensor Jammers
As soon as she gets Stress from either Elusiveness or a red maneuver her rerolling ability is activated (1 dice on Attacks and/or on defense. Stealth adds a dice so on R3 she starts off with 3 dice and can still force the opponent to reroll 1 red dice and may reroll one of her greens
Stealth on a 1 agility ship is a waste. Even if you could get sensor jammer to work every time, stealth isn't going to last more than 2 shots.
used this with ten numb and it worked great, helped keep him alive against 2 and 3 attack dice shots.
its things like this that people dismiss that seem to work well for me.
like running 4 tie ints with stealth device, ive been told you cant run all ints and win, i won 1 tourney and 2nd in another.
it all depends on how you play your fleet not just the one ship, make your opponent fire at the ships you want him to.
it will work, yes there will be games that it will fail in the first shot, but in my opinion its a viable build.