Using Lanchester's Square Law to predict ships' jousting values and fair point values (work in progress)

By MajorJuggler, in X-Wing

Posted at

I ran a few tests that actually confirms LSL but I can't seem to Paste the logs on this forum. I have tried every option short of uploading a text file with the data. I must be forum illiterate today.

Oh well the short of it is this:

1 TIE Fighter with a variable amount of hull, against multipple TIE Fighters with 1 hull each.

100% focused fire.

And the hull on the lonely ship needed to be 1,3,9 to break even, not 1, 3, 6, 10 that I expected.

A very limited test, but still, the win ratios were pretty spot on. Surprised me. :-)

Posted at

Hmm, when I did add the chance of not being able to fire on the priority ship, I also increased the advantage for the lonely ship since it had more sedondary targets to choose from. Now I ended up with 3 vs 1 and 7 hull on the lonely ship as a break even.

So the truth might lie somewhere in between, just like the formula MJ has been using I think.

This needs to be tested more, but i will wait until I have implemented more variables into my sim program.

Posted at

So changed to Chrome and it worked fine. Here are the short log of my little test. Will use the same format when I redo my ship list in the other thread.


1 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
1 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 50,1025%
Round(s) = Average: 4,73084

---Base line 2 vs 1, 1 hull vs 3hull---
1st Squad:
2 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
1 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 55,7735%
Round(s) = Average: 8,6766

---Base line 2 vs 1, 1 hull vs 3hull 100% focus fire---
1st Squad:
2 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
1 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 63,4045%
Round(s) = Average: 4,2334

---Base line 2 vs 1, 1 hull vs 4hull 100% focus fire---
1st Squad:
2 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
1 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 51,3065%
Round(s) = Average: 4,96705

--- 3 vs 1, 1 hull vs 9hull 100% focus fire---
1st Squad:
3 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
1 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 50,432%
Round(s) = Average: 7,79993

--- 3 vs 1, 1 hull vs 6hull 100% focus fire---
1st Squad:
3 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
1 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 72,0035%
Round(s) = Average: 5,84069

Posted at

How many TIE Fighters did you use?

To be consistent with a 100 point cap and the definition of a TIE Fighter, I would run a simulation of 8 TIE Fighters with 3 hull each (96 points, pretty close to 100) vs 1-7 extra hull TIE Fighters (a different simulation for each # 1-7), varying the hull on the beefier TIE Fighters until the win rates are the same. Of course use 100% focus fire, and if you want to be really consistent with how I did it, use the average damage for each shot rather than a random number. This is essentially what I did, except I did it in continuous time in Excel.

And then, try running it again with 100 3 HP TIE Fighters vs. 50 12 HP TIE Fighters. I bet with that many ships the square law will be spot on, and it should be just about even.

Posted at



---8 TIE vs 8 TIE No extra hull---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 49,9805%
Round(s) = Average: 11,47063

---8 TIE vs (8 TIE + 1 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 19,844%
Round(s) = Average: 11,91311

---8 TIE vs (7 TIE + 1 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
7 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 52,754%
Round(s) = Average: 12,9161

---8 TIE vs (6 TIE + 1 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
6 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 84,961%
Round(s) = Average: 11,21499

---8 TIE vs (6 TIE + 2 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
6 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 67,297%
Round(s) = Average: 13,83251

---8 TIE vs (6 TIE + 3 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
6 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 46,57%
Round(s) = Average: 15,57994

---8 TIE vs (5 TIE + 3 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
5 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 86,864%
Round(s) = Average: 13,2135

---8 TIE vs (5 TIE + 4 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
5 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 75,8135%
Round(s) = Average: 15,68946

---8 TIE vs (5 TIE + 5 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
5 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 62,9235%
Round(s) = Average: 17,7304

---8 TIE vs (5 TIE + 6 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
5 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 48,9785%
Round(s) = Average: 19,21508

---8 TIE vs (4 TIE + 6 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
4 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 93,3705%
Round(s) = Average: 14,61413

---8 TIE vs (4 TIE + 7 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
4 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 89,12%
Round(s) = Average: 16,62014

---8 TIE vs (4 TIE + 8 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
4 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 83,306%
Round(s) = Average: 18,64986

---8 TIE vs (4 TIE + 9 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
4 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 76,1875%
Round(s) = Average: 20,553

---8 TIE vs (4 TIE + 10 extra hull per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
4 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 68,125%
Round(s) = Average: 22,2186

---8 TIE vs (4 TIE + 10 hull +1 shield per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
4 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 58,718%
Round(s) = Average: 23,63627

---8 TIE vs (4 TIE + 10 hull +2 shield per fighter)---
1st Squad:
8 TIE Fighter
2nd Squad:
4 TIE Fighter
100000 joust(s) = 1st Squad wins: 48,9865%
Round(s) = Average: 24,80192

I have some limitation in the sim, max 10 ships on each side and max hull is 12+upgrade so I filled out with shields in the last try. I might remove these limitations later on.

So these were the break even points:

8 TIE with 3 hull = 24 hull. Base line.
7 TIE with 4 hull = 28 hull.

6 TIE with 6 hull = 36 hull.

5 TIE with 9 hull = 45 hull.

4 TIE with 12 + 2shield = 48 hull + 8 shields = 60ish hull.

I am not sure how to analyze this properly though. :-) This was done with a high degree of focus fire, but with some splatter effect when the focus target dies early in a round.