Using Lanchester's Square Law to predict ships' jousting values and fair point values (work in progress)

By MajorJuggler, in X-Wing

You have succeeded in sucking the fun out of and are missing the point of GAMES entirely!

FUN!

Take your long, math post to a 40K forum or somesuch. I didnt read it, nor will I attempt to. Just play the game and have fun like Fantasy Flight wants you too. Dont over analyze it furthur. Plenty of people have done that prior to this. Its Star Wars, love it for that, have a beer, and dogfight with your mates. Blast each other to bits again and again, and have more beer.

But not this!

You have succeeded in sucking the fun out of and are missing the point of GAMES entirely!

FUN!

Take your long, math post to a 40K forum or somesuch. I didnt read it, nor will I attempt to. Just play the game and have fun like Fantasy Flight wants you too. Dont over analyze it furthur. Plenty of people have done that prior to this. Its Star Wars, love it for that, have a beer, and dogfight with your mates. Blast each other to bits again and again, and have more beer.

But not this!

Oh but I will judge!

Ill go a step further. Posts with all the stats and math not only suck the fun out of fun games, but are BAD FOR THE HOBBY!

And thats what this is. A hobby. Another post referring to a reply to the long math, said it sounded to much like WORK!

He was right. When it becomes like work its no longer a HOBBY!

Hobby : a pursuit outside one's regular occupation engaged in especially for relaxation

Stop what you are doing, watch STAR WARS, or try to remember how you felt when you saw the dogfight scenes for the first time. If doing all the math and crunching gives you that same feeling you are no longer a human, the world has crushed your soul, and and no amount of cool miniatures games will help.

Spend LESS time crunching, math hammering, pouring over charts and graphs, and MORE time playing the game.

Its STAR WARS MINIATURES!

All it wants is to be played, and loved for what it is.

Edited by Old Adept

Oh but I will judge!

Ill go a step further. Posts will all the stats and math not only suck the fun out of fun games, but are BAD FOR THE HOBBY!

And thats what this is. A hobby. Another post referring to a reply to the long math, said it sounded to much like WORK!

He was right. When it becomes like work its no longer a HOBBY!

Stop what you are doing, watch STAR WARS, or try to remember how you felt when you saw the dogfight scenes for the first time. If doing all the math and crunching gives you that same feeling you are no longer a human, the world has crushed your soul, and and no amount of cool miniatures games will help.

Spend LESS time crunching, math hammering, pouring over charts and graphs, and MORE time playing the game.

Its STAR WARS MINIATURES!

All it wants is to be played, and loved for what it is.

I am saying if ANYONE gets the same feeling crunching numbers that he does while watching the dogfighting scenes from STAR WARS they have no soul. This game is trying to capture that and throw it in a box to share with our friends. Im sure you probably have a soul unless you fall into the category above, then you might be beyond help. Put all the effort you want into it, but just play the game for gods sake. Does every game that has a "points" system have to be reduced to graphs, charts, actuary tables, min-max, meta, et al.

Im judgmental. We all are at times. And believe it or not, its OK.

Im just honest about it.

We should all fly list designed by 8 year olds for a while, cause they will have us using ships JUST CAUSE THEY LOOK COOL TOGETHER!

Now where does aesthetics fit in the formula?

(Oh and a sociopath is someone who behaves in a dangerous or violent way towards other people and does not feel guilty about it, wayyyyy off of me.)

Well.

Mostly :)

Edited by Old Adept

I am saying if ANYONE gets the same feeling crunching numbers that he does while watching the dogfighting scenes from STAR WARS they have no soul. This game is trying to capture that and throw it in a box to share with our friends. Im sure you probably have a soul unless you fall into the category above, then you might be beyond help. Put all the effort you want into it, but just play the game for gods sake. Does every game that has a "points" system have to be reduced to graphs, charts, actuary tables, min-max, meta, et al.

Im judgmental. We all are at times. And believe it or not, its OK.

Im just honest about it.

We should all fly list designed by 8 year olds for a while, cause they will have us using ships JUST CAUSE THEY LOOK COOL TOGETHER!

Now where does aesthetics fit in the formula?

To blazes with the MATH!

Games are FAR more than MATH!

Marketing, art, production values, innovation, playability, subject(ie STAR WARS), etc. Some games dont even use math, and somehow manage to still be fun. I play convoluted mechanics, mismatched, bad math, crap games once in a while just because the miniatures look great and the subject is cool. But enough about 40k.

Just remember that its more fun playing games than talking about playing games.

TL;DR = Don't joust unless you are heavy on TIE Fighters or B-wings.

I find both highly enjoyable. In fact I've always spent more time talkign about games than playing them. It's a socialization thing.

And no, games are not far from math. Everything on that board can be done without a single spaceship. It is angles, distances, probabilities, and numbers. And even without the Star Wars bit I would enjoy it. The Star Wars bit is the part that makes my inner 6 year old squee. The game, and all the brilliant math behind it are the part that gets my brain moving, and lots of things make my inner six year old squee, but not many get my brain really moving. Hence the game design hobby. And the writing books. And the being on the forums.

Since this thread has received some recent attention, I thought it would be helpful to add this clarifying section at the start.

Limitations

The cost predictions here work best on ships that have no unique capabilities. I have broken down the degrees of certainty into several approximate categories. The model should, in theory, do a better job at accurately predicting the value of ships in first category than in the lower categories. Anything less than the first tier fundamentally involves guesswork, since there are no other ships that you can correlate their unique coefficients to. Thankfully, 8 of the 16 ships through wave 4 should have a very high degree of confidence, so overall the approach should still have utility.
Very high degree of certainty (no unique capabilities):
X-wing
A-wing
E-wing (unreleased)
Z-95 (unreleased)
TIE Fighter
TIE Advanced
TIE Interceptor
High degree of certainty (minor unique traits)
Y-wing (turret with 2 base attack)
B-wing (the only small base ship with System Upgrade until wave 4)
Medium degree of certainty (significant unique traits)
Millennium Falcon (360 degree arc)
Firespray (rear arc)
TIE Bomber (basically requires ordnance to be useful)
Low degree of certainty (absolutely unique traits, not even remotely similar to any other ship)
TIE Defender* (white K-turn requires playtesting, unreleased)
Phantom (cloak, unreleased)
Shuttle (no white turns; red 0-stop)
HWK-290 (turret with 1 base attack)

* Once we get enough play testing on the white K-turn, and I update my dial scoring methodology, I'll probably be confident enough in moving the Defender into the "medium" category.

...

And remember: Fly Casual. :-)

The ease of one-shotting a ship seems less than relevant-- in practice TIEs get one-shot so infrequently under normal circumstances that this seems unlikely to be a serious concern.

There is a 0 percent chance of an Academy pilot getting 1 shot because an Academy Pilot will ALWAYS have an evade token going into the joust. Given that the game doesn't have any 4 dice ships native as yet its just not possible.

Hobby : a pursuit outside one's regular occupation engaged in especially for relaxation

If doing all the math and crunching gives you that same feeling you are no longer a human, the world has crushed your soul, and and no amount of cool miniatures games will help.

He's onto something! The author of the thread is actually a self-aware artificial intelligence bent on world domination and extermination of the human race, but due to a code bug believes that this can only be achieved through the battle simulator known as "X-wing Miniatures".

Upon attempting to register a squad in a Store Championship, the Tournament Organizers denied access, saying "we don't serve their kind here". The AI has taken to watching the documentary Battlestar Galactica for guidance on how to work around this issue.

The ease of one-shotting a ship seems less than relevant-- in practice TIEs get one-shot so infrequently under normal circumstances that this seems unlikely to be a serious concern.

There is a 0 percent chance of an Academy pilot getting 1 shot because an Academy Pilot will ALWAYS have an evade token going into the joust. Given that the game doesn't have any 4 dice ships native as yet its just not possible.

And focus tokens are a better defensive investment on a ship with 3 dice. Also Direct hit. And action denial. And Heavy Laser cannon. And not being the ship attacked int he beginning of the joust.

They get one shotted all the time.

There is a 0 percent chance of an Academy pilot getting 1 shot because an Academy Pilot will ALWAYS have an evade token going into the joust. Given that the game doesn't have any 4 dice ships native as yet its just not possible.

Seems like a bad assumption to me, but let's go with it!

Minimally it takes a hit and a crit (direct hit/ minor explosion) to one shot a tie, this can be accomplished with two dice, requires three or two attacks with 2 dice if there is an evade token. Triple blanks are not all that rare. 5/8 cubed...

Jan + falcon + range one opening shot (actually easy to achieve if you have engine or first turn ends outside of range 3. There's 5 dice, plent to overcome evade token.

None of this points to 0 chance of a one shot.

The ease of one-shotting a ship seems less than relevant-- in practice TIEs get one-shot so infrequently under normal circumstances that this seems unlikely to be a serious concern.

There is a 0 percent chance of an Academy pilot getting 1 shot because an Academy Pilot will ALWAYS have an evade token going into the joust. Given that the game doesn't have any 4 dice ships native as yet its just not possible.

You might want to recheck your math on that possibility ;) Even with an evade token it is possible to get one shot by three dice and you are taking range one out of the equation. ;)

You guys are missing the point with your pedantry. The 'lowly' TIE Fighter is as immune to getting vaporized by any one shot as the Z-95 at range band 2-3. IF you are considering range band 1 shenanigans then the Z-95 is far more vulnerable than the TIE on virtue of having 2 green dice base.

The biggest shake up to the meta which will stem from the Z-95 is not really going to be solely from its cost/durability but also from the fact that it allows the Rebels a low cost missile platform that is also not terrible once it has spent its load. Add munitions fail safe and the options are endless. If all the rebels do is line up 8 Z-95s against 7-8 TIEs they will still lose due to not being able to evade + lack of access to Howlrunner.

Edited by sonova

You guys are missing the point with your pedantry. The 'lowly' TIE Fighter is as immune to getting vaporized by any one shot as the Z-95 at range band 2-3. IF you are considering range band 1 shenanigans then the Z-95 is far more vulnerable than the TIE on virtue of having 2 green dice base.

The biggest shake up to the meta which will stem from the Z-95 is not really going to stem solely from its cost/durability but also from the fact that it allows the Rebels a low cost missile platform. Add munitions fail safe and the options are endless. If all the rebels do is line up 8 Z-95s against 7-8 TIEs they will still lose due to not being able to evade + lack of access to Howlrunner.

Edited by Aminar

How so? The only chance for the TIE to get one shot is by at 3 dice ship at range band 1. And that's with them rolling 4 hits assuming all blanks on defence. The same situation applied to the Z-95 still results in a dead Z-95 shields or not.

EDIT: Before you guys jump in. Jan Ors/Expose shenanigans are just that. Shenanigans. They exist and if your opponent wants to pay points for them then good for them.

Edited by sonova

If they evade. The single most likely to be useless action in the game. And they are more vulnerable to crits. And Again, Evade is the least likely to be used action in the game because it only does something if you get hit by an attack. Nigh on nobody evades with ties.

I mean it. the numbers don't lie. Ties can be one shotted far easier than a Z-95. End of story. At range 2 it requires 2 hits and a crit.(1 in 8 chance of a crit on that roll. Then a 8 out of 33. chance of a direct hit.) That's harder than 1 in 100(factoring in the 2 hits and a crit piece) versus 1 in 10 on unmodified defenses.

Edited by Aminar

If they evade. The single most likely to be useless action in the game. And they are more vulnerable to crits. And Again, Evade is the least likely to be used action in the game because it only does something if you get hit by an attack. Nigh on nobody evades with ties.

And that is why your TIEs get 1 shot. Also theres only 4x 2 damage crits in the deck. Academy ties arent really bothered by the other crits.

Edited by sonova

If they evade. The single most likely to be useless action in the game. And they are more vulnerable to crits. And Again, Evade is the least likely to be used action in the game because it only does something if you get hit by an attack. Nigh on nobody evades with ties.

And that is why your TIEs get 1 shot. Also theres only 2 damage crits in the deck. Academy ties arent really bothered by the other crits.

If they evade. The single most likely to be useless action in the game. And they are more vulnerable to crits. And Again, Evade is the least likely to be used action in the game because it only does something if you get hit by an attack. Nigh on nobody evades with ties.

And that is why your TIEs get 1 shot. Also theres only 2 damage crits in the deck. Academy ties arent really bothered by the other crits.

Count your deck. There's 8.

I stand corrected.

If they evade. The single most likely to be useless action in the game. And they are more vulnerable to crits. And Again, Evade is the least likely to be used action in the game because it only does something if you get hit by an attack. Nigh on nobody evades with ties.

And that is why your TIEs get 1 shot. Also theres only 2 damage crits in the deck. Academy ties arent really bothered by the other crits.

Count your deck. There's 8.

I stand corrected.

[/quote

From there, My Tie's also actually hit things because I use focus. Sure, they occasionally get one shot, but they also can hit something, which they cannot do nearly as reliably while evading.

I use howlrunner for my damage boosting. The value of focus is lessened by her presence. Also by your logic Z-95s are even more vulnerable because shields cancel normal hits first. 1 lucky stray crit is all it takes to end a Z-95 where a TIE needs a crit + something else.

BTW its good that we are having this out. It lets people see the two sides of the Imperial mindset. I am risk averse where you are obviously more risk tolerant.

I value my TIEs being on the table longer where you are leaning more towards taking stuff off the table.

Edited by sonova

Also theres only 4x 2 damage crits in the deck.

You still have that wrong. There are seven Direct Hit! cards in the 33-card damage deck. There is a 21% chance of drawing a Direct Hit! on a critical hit with a fresh deck.